Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1391768
15 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 11 JULY 2021 MALTATODAY SURVEY KURT SANSONE SUPPORT for the Nationalist Party has climbed in July but the gap between the two major parties still sees Labour ahead by 39,000 votes. The July MaltaToday survey shows the PN support running at 32.4%, an upward movement of 3.1 points. The Labour Party loses 0.7 points and now stands at 45%. The gap between the parties is al- most 13 points, down from 16 points last month. When previous election voting patterns are analysed accord- ing to what people say they will do now, the PL leads by 39,000 votes. The gap between the two major par- ties in the last general election was of 35,280 votes while in the June Malta- Today survey the gap stood at 48,000 votes. The latest survey was carried out in the week after Malta was greylisted by the FATF, something which does not appear to have had much of an impact on the PL. Although the PL's score has slipped, its leader's trust rating continues to increase, which suggests the party has potential to grow. On the flipside, despite Bernard Grech's increase in trust, the PN leader remains less popular than his party. The findings show that while the PL manages to retain 81.6% of those who voted for it in 2017, the PN's reten- tion rate stands at 77.6%, an increase of 7.5 points over last month. But more PN voters are switching to the PL than vice versa. Although fewer than last month, 5.7% of PN voters in 2017 say they will vote PL if an election is held tomorrow, in con- trast with 1.6% of PL voters who will switch allegiance. The survey shows that support for ADPD stands at 1.1%, while 8.4% of voters say they will not vote and 12% are unsure. Age and region The PL beats the PN across all ag- es with the widest gap between the parties being in the 36-50 age brack- et. Within this cohort, the PL scores 44.1% and the PN 27.5%. In the young age group, the PN has bridged the gap substantially since the last survey, reducing the PL's 11-point lead to four points. On a geographical basis, the PL leads in Gozo, the South-Eastern and Southern Harbour regions, while the PN is ahead in the Northern and Northern Harbour regions. In the Western region, the parties are prac- tically neck and neck with the PN en- joying the slimmest of leads at 37.7% against the PL's 37.3%. The gap between the parties is wid- er in those regions where the PL is ahead, including Gozo where Labour has a 17-point lead. The PN's strongest showing is in the Northern region where it scores 42.1% and enjoys a 4.4-point lead. Results by age groups and region have to be interpreted with caution since the margin of error is higher in these sub-groups. Methodology The survey was carried out between Monday 28 June 2021 and Tuesday 6 July 2021. 651 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified ran- dom sampling based on region, age and gender was used to replicate the Maltese demographic. The estimated margin of error is 4.9% for a confi- dence interval of 95% for the overall results. Demographic and sub-group breakdowns have significantly larger margins of error. PN chips away at Labour lead but gap stands at 39,000 votes Despite Bernard Grech's increase in trust, the PN leader remains less popular than his party S Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 71.1% 17.2% 8.0% 40.8% 29.9% 27.2% Which political party would you vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow? Overall PL 2017 PN 2017 Didn't vote 2017 Male Female 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 44.9% 32.4% 12.0% 8.4% 81.6% 9.2% 6.4% 77.6% 11.8% 12.8% 11.9% 27.7% 34.0% 46.1% 31.1% 10.7% 9.8% 43.6% 33.8% 13.5% 6.8% 35.6% 31.3% 11.1% 15.1% 44.1% 27.5% 15.6% 12.8% 49.8% 33.9% 9.3% 49.5% 35.8% 12.0% 47.7% 36.2% 10.9% 54.3% 25.9% 11.8% 7.5% 44.7% 30.0% 6.5% 17.5% 30.8% 39.5% 15.5% 9.0% 47.7% 30.4% 10.4% 8.6% 37.7% 42.1% 8.0% 8.3% 34.3% 38.6% 15.0% 10.5% 57.6% 21.2% 12.3% 8.9% 59.2% 22.4% 10.8% 37.3% 37.7% 12.7% 9.5% PL PN ADPD Do not know No vote -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Jun-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Nov-16 30-Apr-17 14-May-17 28-May-17 10-Oct-17 4-Feb-18 6-May-18 5-Aug-18 7-Oct-18 23-Dec-18 02-Mar-19 5-May-19 2-Feb-20 12-Apr-20 21-Jun-20 6-Sep-20 9-Nov-20 9-Jan-21 7-Mar-21 9-May-21 11-Jul-21 PL PN ADPD PD Far-right Don't know Not Voting Historical voting polls