Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1392413
NEWS ANALYSIS 9 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 14 JULY 2021 cess seems to be happening on the other side. It is Abela who not only keeps his voting base united but who makes inroads in those demographic groups where his party is less popular. One key demographic is that composed of respondents who voted PN in 2017. This is the same demographic which sup- ported Simon Busuttil's an- ti-corruption platform. Within this category while 5.7% would now vote PL, 11% trust Abela more than they trust Grech. Surely not all those who pre- fer Abela to Grech will vote PL. In fact nearly 4% of pres- ent PN voters still prefer Abe- la to Grech. But this is further bad news for the PN as it sug- gests that it cannot even take its present voters for granted. Even among the most sceptical category of voters – those who did not vote in 2017 – Abela is leading Grech by 20 points even if the parties enjoy the same level of support. This begs the question: how is it possible for Abela to retain such popularity despite mas- sive upsets like the FATF grey- listing apart from the reverber- ations of sleaze and corruption from the Muscat era? Many would be tempted to blame the ineptitude of the PN and its leaders. But this is only part of the answer. The major reason has to do with Abela himself. Although unimpres- sive in many ways and lacking his predecessor's tongue-in- cheek wit, Abela has found a way to balance his appeal with both Labour's core vote, while retaining his appeal among PN leaning voters. It is the PN that has not managed to stop the haemorrhage of votes to Labour, which would be much greater if trust in Abela is trans- lated into a vote for Labour. PN's dilemma: hit hard or succumb? So the PN is in a quandary: should it punch Abela hard in the hope of diminishing his ap- peal or should it opt for a more conciliatory, but principled approach for the good will of M.O.R. voters? And where is the public uproar on environ- mental issues and good govern- ance reflected in the polls? The answer may well be that people may not be expecting elector- al solutions to such endem- ic problems and have greater hope in change from civic ac- tivism. But it may also well be that such issues prominent in the media are also restricted to a vocal echo chamber. This on its own also reflects the absence of charismatic political leadership that can communicate, beyond a limited constituency, a coun- ter-hegemony to Labour's eco- nomic model. Possibly Abela's popularity is also tied to Grech's own bal- ancing act between moderates and hawks in his own party, which further dilutes the PN's message. And even while the PN continues to chase with the hounds while running with the hares, third parties with a more focused message have so far failed to tap in to popular dis- contentment. The ultimate secret behind Abela's success may well be the way he was elected at a stra- tegic juncture. While prom- ising "continuity", Abela has managed to create a safe dis- tance between himself and the Muscat era. Rather than being blamed for Malta's greylisting, Abela is seen as the PM who is mending Malta's reputation and on whose watch police ac- tion was finally taken against the likes of Keith Schembri and Nexia BT. In many ways the resignation of Muscat has of- fered Labour an opportunity to renew itself before the inevita- ble ten-year itch. In short, Labour was able to convey the impression of a change in government albeit one in which Labour remained dominant. And while there is ample evidence that Labour's broad church is showing its first cracks, Abela has shown few signs of slipping, except for a small period during which the government seemed to have lost control of the pandemic. This also explains why the government now prefers to sin on the side of caution. In this sense, for the PN the next elec- tion is taking a greater sem- blance of a chronicle of a defeat foretold. jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt The ultimate secret behind Abela's success may well be the way he was elected at a strategic juncture. While promising "continuity", Abela has managed to create a safe distance between himself and the Muscat era