Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1407680
13 MALTATODAY SURVEY maltatoday | SUNDAY • 5 SEPTEMBER 2021 KURT SANSONE THE Labour Party's lead over the Nationalist Party remains relatively unchanged at almost 13 points, the MaltaToday September survey shows. Support for both major parties has slipped since the last survey in July, with the PL losing 1.1 points and the PN 1.3 points. The PL scores 43.9% against the PN's 31.1%. Support for ADPD re- mains unchanged at 1.2%. There has been an increase of four points to 12.4% in those who say they will not vote. Nonetheless, the survey suggests that the PL has managed to avert a fallout from the Daphne Caruana Galizia public inquiry findings with the PN seemingly unable to capital- ise on the situation. While Robert Abela remains signif- icantly more popular than his party, Grech's trust rating trails behind the PN's support level. This gives the PL an edge over its rival since it makes it more likely for the party to attract support on the strength of its lead- er's trustworthiness when the elec- tion campaign proper starts. When analysing how people vot- ed in the 2017 general election and using the survey data to extrapolate current support, the numbers show the PL ahead with 33,400 votes. This represents a decline of almost 6,000 votes since July. The apparent incongruence be- tween this analysis and the raw sur- vey result may signal that the 9.9% of those who are unsure who to vote for if an election is held tomorrow are slightly more inclined towards the PN. In the last general election, the PL enjoyed a lead of 35,280 votes over the PN. PN shortens gaps in regions where it trails The PL leads across all age groups except pensioners, where it trails the PN by almost three points. Among young voters the PL scores 30.4% against the PN's 28.6%, a two- point gap which is significantly low- er than the trust gap between the party leaders (Abela leads Grech by 14 points). On a geographical basis, strength for the political parties mimics the same patterns as those of the trust ratings for the leaders, although the PN manages to shorten the gaps in those regions where it trails and has wider margins in those where it is ahead. The PL leads in Gozo, the North- ern Harbour region, the South-East and the Southern Harbour. The PN is ahead in the Northern and West- ern regions. The PL retains 81.2% of those who voted for it in the 2017 general elec- tion, while the PN's retention rate stands at 79.5%. For the first time since April there are more PL voters inclined to switch allegiance to the PN than vice versa. The survey shows that while 2.2% of PL 2017 voters say they will now vote PN, 1.2% of Nationalist voters will shift to Labour. Methodology The survey was carried out be- tween Wednesday 25 August 2021 and Thursday 2 September 2021. 651 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sam- pling based on region, age and gen- der was used to replicate the Maltese demographic. The estimated margin of error is 4.9% for a confidence in- terval of 95% for the overall results. Demographic and sub-group break- downs have significantly larger mar- gins of error. Labour averts Caruana Galizia public inquiry fallout 9.9% of those who are unsure who to vote for if an election is held tomorrow are slightly more inclined towards the PN S Eastern S Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 73.5% 17.6% 8.9% 57.2% 20.7% 22.1% 40.6% 42.4% 15.7% Which political party would you vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow? Overall PL 2017 PN 2017 Didn't vote 2017 Male Female 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 43.9% 31.1% 9.9% 12.4% 81.2% 9.0% 6.9% 79.5% 7.9% 9.2% 22.5% 58.3% 39.6% 29.9% 10.2% 16.5% 47.5% 32.2% 9.6% 8.8% 30.4% 28.6% 15.9% 17.5% 37.1% 29.2% 14.7% 16.7% 59.6% 18.2% 9.0% 12.2% 45.8% 48.3% 60.8% 34.2% 51.5% 27.3% 8.1% 12.2% 40.5% 26.2% 12.3% 17.9% 24.7% 38.9% 15.3% 14.7% 42.4% 35.6% 5.9% 10.6% 26.9% 44.2% 13.2% 12.8% 38.8% 31.8% 11.4% 16.5% 62.4% 18.0% 10.6% 7.0% 51.2% 20.6% 17.5% 36.3% 44.5% 9.7% 7.5% PL PN ADPD Do not know No vote -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Jan-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 07-May-17 21-May-17 1-June-17 19-Nov-17 4-Mar-18 3-June-18 2-Sept-18 11-Nov-18 03-Feb-19 07-Apr-19 3-Nov-19 15-Mar-20 24-May-20 19-Jul-20 11-Oct-20 6-Dec-20 7-Feb-21 11-Apr-21 6-Jun-21 5-Sep-21 PL PN ADPD PD Far-right Don't know Not Voting Historical voting polls