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3 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 5 SEPTEMBER 2021 NEWS Thank you... for having bought this newspaper mt The good news is that we're not raising the price of our newspaper We know times are still hard, but we have pledged to keep giving our readers quality news they deserve, without making you pay more for it. So thank you, for making it your MaltaToday Support your favourite newspaper with a special offer on online PDF subscriptions. Visit bit.ly/2X9csmr or scan the QR code Subscriptions can be done online on agendabookshop.com Same-day delivery at €1 for orders up to 5 newspapers per address. Subscribe from €1.15 a week Same-day print delivery from Miller Distributors A 2021 election seems extremely unlikely after Robert Abela announced that the budget will be presented on 11 October. So why has he not ruled out the possibility entirely? CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1 While some in Labour believe a November election could be Abela's best strategy, on Mon- day the prime minister said he will oversee the implementa- tion of Budget 2022. Effective- ly that pours cold water for any November election, since no budget implementation Bill would have been passed by that time. Still, Abela refused to rule out a 2021 election when pressed on the matter. The latest he can call it will be September 2022, but the PM has absolute discretion on the date. The Budget will be presented to the House on 11 October, and debates and final approval could take at least two weeks. With the minimum period be- tween the announcement of an election and voting day being 33 days, any such election in 2021 would then have to be held in the first weekend of December. The last time an election was called in December was in 1981, when Labour won a ma- jority of seats despite losing its majority of votes. But it is common wisdom that an election so late in the year disrupts the Christmas shopping period (already in full swing throughout end-No- vember), something the gov- ernment will not be too keen to do after two years of COV- ID-19 disruptions that the re- tail sector has had to endure. Abela does not rule out the unlikely prospect however, for example by holding the Budget much later in October: instead he keeps the PN guessing, forcing it into premature elec- tion mode, already taxing on its limited resources. He wants their arsenal depleted before the real campaign starts. Abela certainly wants to dis- pel the idea that Labour had been unable to complete an entire legislative term, elusive since 1987. His father George fell out with Alfred Sant and resigned as deputy leader after having strongly advised him against an early election in 1998. But Abela's mandate was inherited from Joseph Muscat, whose disgraced exit paved the way for the "continuity candi- date", Abela himself. Abela knows however that only an election can dispel the impression that he is in debt to Muscat. But not calling an elec- tion before, Abela does not feed uncertainty into his first Budget, delivered by trusted finance minister Clyde Caru- ana and not obscured by the pandemic. Nobody can accuse Abela of hiding the state of the country's finances from the electorate, but the Budget still gives Labour the power of in- cumbency to address disgrun- tled pockets of voters. Where does this leave Abela in the battle for the soul of La- bour? A landslide victory now will strengthen his hand in the face of Muscat loyalists, but judicial developments in the next months will still weaken the former Labour leader's in- fluence. Abela knows that even with its poll advantage, Labour is losing its sheen. Even with his higher trust rating over Ber- nard Grech, Labour is winning by default. The moment voters will start seeing a viable alter- native, Abela's days may be numbered. Prolonging the election date might give the PN and third parties more time to consoli- date, exploiting the rifts inside Labour's big tent, specifically discontent at the sway held by big business. But Abela thinks he the PN will just be in a stretched-out campaigning mode, distracting it from its own, much-needed reforms to become a credible alternative. It's a risk that is based on the premise that the campaign itself will not change voting intentions, as has hap- pened in Germany, whose opposition Social Democrats (SDP) resurged 10 points in the polls after years being left behind. In Malta, that's always an extremely unlikely prospect. But any eleventh-hour erosion of support will thwart Abela's bid to outdo his predecessor in terms of winning big. Key dates 11 October Budget 2022 18 October Budget speeches and implementation vote 27 November - 4 December Possible 2021 election dates September 2022 Latest Abela has to call an election

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