Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1414163
14 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 26 SEPTEMBER 2021 NEWS No coalition, no party! Germany has a mixed elector- al system based on both pro- portional representation and first-past-the-post constituen- cy seats. But each party sur- passing the 5% threshold auto- matically wins representation in the Bundestag. Angela Merkel herself has governed with the Social Dem- ocrats between 2005 and 2009 and 2013-2021, and with the FDP between 2009 and 2013. Despite having a plurality of parties, Germany has a tradi- tion of stable governments that last an entire legislation. With five parties likely to sur- pass the 5% threshold, it is ob- vious that no single party can claim victory alone and in the end it will boil down to which coalition formula guarantees a workable majority. Short of an- other grand coalition between the SPD and CDU, all other formulas require the participa- tion of three parties. The options range from a still unlikely left-wing coalition led by the SPD with Der Linke, which includes left-wing social democrats and East German ex-communists, and the social- ly progressive Greens, which have less ideologically ortho- dox formulas. The only party ruled out com- pletely from any coalition talks is the far-right ADF. Unlike Malta where the winner takes all, in Germany parties have to compromise to get part of their agenda implemented in a give- and-take process. Campaigning can change the polls For most of the campaign, the SPD polled under 15% while the Greens were scoring above 20%. The election started as a con- test between the CDU and the Greens, which for the first time in their history presented their candidate for the Chancellor- ship, Annalena Baerbock. A coalition between the conserv- atives and the Greens, with the possible addition of the liber- al FDP, was seen as the most probable outcome since any other options involving the Greens and SPD failed to trans- late into a majority. But as the campaign pro- gressed, the Greens lost steam amidst a 'scandal' involving in- accuracies in Baerbock's CV. The SPD started to gain new ground after opting for Olaf Scholz, the pragmatic finance minister and deputy chancel- lor in Angela Merkel's govern- ment, as their candidate to lead the next coalition. In just a few weeks the SPD bounced from third to first place in the polls as the candi- dacy of CDU candidate Armin Laschet faltered. As in Malta and the rest of the world, lead- ership and personal charisma are crucial in winning elec- tions. But while in Malta polls have shown no reversal of for- tunes for the PN, the SPD has bounced back after having been written off. And while in Malta polls have remained sta- ble for the past decade of La- bour dominance, the electoral campaign in Germany has been a roller-coaster, with the SPD making a late recovery and the Greens losing their initial im- petus. But a multi-party democracy like Germany's may be more conducive to swings than a tribal bi-partisan system like Malta's, in which partisan alle- giance is more fixed. The SPD bounces back As the oldest social demo- cratic party in the world, the crisis of the SPD incarnated that experienced by the Euro- pean centre-left, being torn be- tween left-wing roots and the dilemmas of managing a capi- talist globalised economy, that is now characterised by greater inequalities, a decline in organ- ised labour and the rise of iden- tity politics. Not only did the SPD suffer a split in 2010 when left-wing el- ements teamed up with former communists to form Der Linke (The Left), but also lost out to the Greens among its educat- ed left-wing cohort, and even to the far-right in some of its working-class constituencies. It remains to be seen whether Scholz's popularity is personal- ity-based or represents a turna- round for the social democrats. It may well be the case that the fiscally conservative Scholz is Germans vote today in an election that could see the centre-left social democrats bounce back from the abyss to lead a coalition that could come in any of four different formations – the polar opposite of tribal Malta, where the winner takes all and coalitions are scorned, writes James Debono Jamaica, traffic lights, kiwi or red- green... an election of many outcomes Germany's and Europe's next leader While in Malta polls have shown no reversal of fortunes for the PN, the SPD has bounced back after having been written off. And while in Malta polls have remained stable for the past decade of Labour dominance, the electoral campaign in Germany has been a roller-coaster, with the SPD making a late recovery and the Greens losing their initial impetus