Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1419860
14 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 17 OCTOBER 2021 NEWS Delia's 'blueshirts' have dispelled any semblance of party unity and can do so again An Independence Day stunt which saw Delia's "team" dressed in 'dark blue' shirts was a reminder of the factional strife in the party. With an election around the corner, Grech can- not afford to alienate Delia as this weakens the party's brand. Despite being reprimanded, De- lia was still able to secure a can- didature on both the seventh and eight districts. Grech himself had previously admitted Delia knows he has the power to sink him by dash- ing any perception of party uni- ty through such antics. MOR voters are not impressed by this sad spectacle. Unsurprisingly, Robert Abela uses party unity as his trump card while Grech has to bend over backwards to keep divisions from erupting again. Removing a party leader mid-way through a legislature was a perfect recipe for future recriminations, which risk haunting the party during and after the next election Grech inspires more trust then Delia and he is more capable in holding social liberals and en- lightened conservatives under the same tent. The MaltaTo- day survey indicates Delia's fa- vourite battle-cry, immigration, is only considered the most important issue by 1% of the electorate. But the forceful re- moval of a party leader midway through the legislature, mostly due to his low polling, was un- precedented, especially in a so- ciety where leaders command the personal loyalty of their fol- lowers. Delia still commands a degree of loyalty in his party, which complicates matters for Grech, whose own failures in the polls can only be interpreted by De- lia's supporters as confirmation of the unfairness of the coup right before he could prove himself in a general election. Things would have been sim- pler for the PN if it faced an inevitable defeat with Delia at its helm. It could have empow- ered a more unifying and prob- ably more socially liberal leader to emerge. A defeat for Grech leaves room for a Delia come- back, or a vindication for con- servatives who dislike Grech's moderate approach on canna- bis liberalisation or pro-choice candidates. It could also lead to a protracted crisis of identity for the PN, consolidating Labour as a natural party of government. Corruption ranks low as an issue; environment ranks higher but this remains a tricky issue for Grech The PN still struggles with a battlecry to keep its electoral bloc united while attracting un- decided voters. Abela's Labour scores low on fighting corrup- tion (57% rated it negatively) but this issue also ranks low (just 7.3%) compared to per- sonal income or the state of the economy when voters are asked which issue is most important to them. It means the PN can- not win over voters by replicat- ing the 2017 campaign in which fighting corruption was the par- ty's main plank. It's the economy (39.5%) that is the most important issue, followed by disposable income (29.4%) – on both issues Labour gets a positive rating. One may argue that the PN should fo- cus more on bread-and-butter issues, but dissatisfaction on both the economy and person- al incomes is low. In this sense Labour is winning on the basis of its own merits. The budget only strengthens this advan- tage. Recognising these merits and promising improvements may be a better strategy for the PN than blaming the electorate for keeping a corrupt party in power. But Labour may be in trouble over disenchantment with the environmental consequences of its development model (21% rate it as an important issue), and is the second-most impor- tant issue for graduates, pen- sioners, and the under-35s. Tackling this issue is tricky for Grech, who threads carefully between appealing to the green vote without alienating both de- velopers' lobby and people ben- efiting from the property boom. This may be understandable for a big tent party which does not want to scare off voters and still requires a well-oiled machine funded by big business. Bu the PN still sends mixed messages, evident in its com- mitment not to change local plans or reverse planning poli- cies introduced by Labour in the past years. Instead the party has proposed a convoluted com- mitment to seek a two-thirds majority for policies regulating ODZ. It is not surprising that the en- vironment is the top issue for non-voters (42%): clearly the PN is still not perceived as the party, which can bring change on environmental issues. The PN can promise the world, but people are sceptical of promises made by a party with little chance of getting elected The PN is in overdrive with proposals that can dispel the perception that it is a negative party. But with Labour's wide advantage in the polls, voters are likely to dismiss its propos- als as a desperate attempt to win votes: in this sense the polls are the party's greatest enemy. It is no surprise that on Sunday Grech conjured the spectre of a 'silent majority' which is wary of declaring its support for the PN in surveys but would do so on election day. There is no his- toric precedent for a party trail- ing in the polls by such a wide margin, to win an election. The PN can only offer a stronger opposition to keep Labour on its heels. Grech cannot properly articulate the most convincing reason for voting PN: clipping Labour's wings What is at stake in the next election is not whether Labour remains in power, but whether it will win with the same or an even greater margin than last time. The latter prospect is very likely even if undesirable to voters who fear Labour's hubris and omnipotence. Most seem to think Labour is the better option, but many others would like a strong opposition that keeps Labour on its heels. A trouncing for the PN in the next election would not only dimin- ish the chances of a change in government in 2027, but could even throw the opposition into a long period of chaos. Grech cannot afford admitting that he has no chance of win- ning the next election, which is why he needs to conjure up an improbable silent majority to defy survey predictions. The sit- uation is indeed paradoxical for Grech: he would sound ridicu- lous if hopeful of a victory, and perceived a loser if he admits what everybody already knows. Perhaps being realistic and in- viting the electorate to invest in a stronger and regenerated op- position, which can be in gov- ernment in 2027, could well be the most honest strategy than selling an unrealisable dream. Bernard's Sisyphean predicament Bernard Grech keeps rolling an immense boulder up a hill only for it to roll down every time he makes some progress... but unlike the mythical Sisyphus, Grech does not even reach the top of the hill and is now bogged down in the swamp of the PN's internal troubles. So why does Grech fail to make any progress? asks James Debono Grech cannot afford admitting that he has no chance of winning the next election, which is why he needs to conjure up an improbable silent majority to defy survey predictions. The situation is indeed paradoxical for Grech Adrian Delia's Independence Day stunt: his canvassers show up in 'Team Delia' shirts, further dispelling any suggestions of party unity