Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1419860
15 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 17 OCTOBER 2021 NEWS The silent majority... what the survey says KURT SANSONE BERNARD Grech brushed aside the poor result obtained by the PN in the last Mal- taToday survey, telling supporters the game is not over yet. Grech says the numbers show "80,000 people" who did not declare their vot- ing preference, what he called "a silent majority". The October survey showed support for the PN plummeting by four points to 27.3% since September, leaving a 16-point gap between the major par- ties (Labour, 43.2%, down less than one point). The PN leader's reaction is under- standable. With poll findings showing the PN regressing, Grech had to fan the flame of hope. But does his claim that there is a silent majority out there that can be convinced to turn the tables on Labour hold any water? 1. Eligible voters: 353,810 We kick off the exercise by determin- ing how many voters will be eligible to vote if a general election is held now. The latest figure available is from the April 2021 electoral register: 353,810 voters aged 16 and over. 2. Survey translated into votes Here we translate the MaltaToday Oc- tober survey results into real votes by transferring the percentages onto the eligible voter population. 3. The 'silent majority': 87,391 The survey finds 43,872 voters who are "uncertain" on who to vote for, and an- other 43,519 who claim they will not vote. These are uncommitted voters who have not indicated a voting preference.... the 'silent majority' Grech was referring to. 4. Profiling the 'silent majority' Let's match unsure voters and non-vot- ers with the answers they gave us in our other survey asking respondents to rate government's performance in five poli- cy areas from very bad to very good. For this exercise, we group the 'bad' answers (very bad + bad) and contrast them with the 'good' answers (very good + good) for each policy area. 5. The non-voters On all five policy areas, non-vot- ers have a 'bad vs good' profile that is similar to PN voters although they are slightly less negative and marginally more positive in their rating of govern- ment. This tallies with other findings in the survey that show how those who voted for the PN in the 2017 general election are three times more likely than Labour voters to say they will not vote if an election is held tomorrow. The survey showed that 15.2% of PN 2017 voters now say they will not vote and 4.6% of PL voters will do likewise. We work out the number of PN and PL non-voters and deduct these from the overall figure to establish how many new voters will not vote. 6. The unsure voters Unsure voters have a profile that ap- proaches that of Labour voters on the economy and disposable income – the two most important issues for voters. On the economy, unsure voters are half as likely as Labour voters to give gov- ernment good marks, but more than double PN voters. The same pattern is observed on disposable income. Unsure voters have a similar profile to Labour voters on immigration, the least im- portant issue. On the environment, the third most important issue for voters, the unsure are in synch with PN voters, while on corruption their profile ap- proaches that of PN voters but with a markedly less negative outlook. We work out the number of PN and PL unsure voters and deduct these from the overall figure to establish how many new voters will not vote. 7. Bridging the gap Based on our survey's raw results the existing gap between the PL and PN stands at 56,256 votes. To bridge this gap Bernard Grech has to tap into a reservoir of 87,391 votes who are even- ly split between non-voters and unsure voters. If it is assumed that 2017 voters who today will not vote or are unsure, go back to their fold, the gap reduces to 46,662 votes. This means there aren't enough uncommitted new voters to tap into for Grech to be able to bridge this gap. If the PN manages to convince all uncommitted new voters it will still trail the PL by 21,867 votes. 8. Bernard's impossible path to victory To win the election, the PN has to first convince all those who voted for it in 2017 but are today unsure or will not vote (36,095 votes), to cast their num- ber one vote in the blue box again. It then has to convince all the new voters who are unsure or will not vote (24,795) to vote for it. But it crucially also has to convince at least 11,000 voters who have decided to vote Labour or voted PL in 2017 but are unsure or will not vote, to switch. And even in this scenario, it will be a razor-thin victory. However, given the profile of unsure voters, it is unlikely they will all vote PN and prob- ably much will depend on the trust they enjoy in the party leaders. At this level, Grech trails Robert Abela by a 23-point margin. The PN leader faces a gargan- tuan task with little time on his hands to convince voters. A PN defeat appears a forgone conclusion and in the best-case scenario it will lose by around 22,000 votes. The worst-case scenario could see the PN lose by around 46,000 votes. ksansone@mediatoday.com.mt PL voters 43.2% = 152,846 PN voters 27.3% = 96,590 ADPD voters 1.6% = 5,661 Unsure voters 12.4% = 43,872 Non-voters 12.3% = 43,519 Profiling the silent majority Bad vs Good Economy PL voters 0.3% vs 86.7% PN voters 24.4% vs 21.5% Unsure 13% vs 45.8% Non-Voters 15.2% vs 28.1% Money in pocket PL voters 2.5% vs 65.6% PN voters 39.8% vs 15.6% Unsure 21.4% vs 37.9% Non-Voters 31.2% vs 20.6% Environment PL voters 27.4%% vs 31% PN voters 74% vs 5.1% Unsure 60.3% vs 4.7% Non-Voters 66.9% vs 10% Corruption PL voters 32.1% vs 28.4% PN voters 89.2% vs 0% Unsure 54.6% vs 7.9% Non-Voters 77.8% vs 5% Immigration PL voters 15.9% vs 36.6% PN voters 48.7% vs 7.1% Unsure 18.8% vs 24.2% Non-Voters 42.4% vs 9.1% Total non-voters 43,519 (Less) 4.6% of PL 2017 7,865 15.2% of PN 2017 20,626 New voters who will not vote 15,028 Total unsure voters 43,872 (Less) 10.9% of PL 2017 18,636 11.4% of PN 2017 15,469 New voters who are unsure 9,767 The gap Assuming that unsure voters and non-voters from 2017 will vote again for the same party PL survey declared votes 152,846 PL 2017 non-voters 7,865 PL 2017 unsure voters 18,636 TOTAL PL excluding new voters 179,347 PN survey declared votes 96,590 PN 2017 non-voters 20,626 PN 2017 unsure voters 15,469 TOTAL PN excluding new voters 132,685 Gap PN needs to bridge 46,662 New voters who will not vote 15,028 New voters who are unsure 9,767 TOTAL uncommitted new voters 24,795 Assuming PN captures all uncommitted new voters TOTAL PL vote 179,347 TOTAL PN vote 157,480 Gap 21,867