Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1420685
8 ANALYSIS maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 20 OCTOBER 2021 Grech's speech: A blueprint for an unlikely government 1. How can Bernard Grech promise so much when the country is passing through what PN billboards proclaim to be the "worst recession" and govern- ment finances are in such a dire state? If elected Bernard Grech will in- herit the finances left by a Labour administration. Grech's prom- ises would sound more realistic if he also acknowledges that the economy is doing well. But in his speech Grech questioned the sus- tainability of Labour's financials by referring to "historical levels of unprecedented debt". He also criticised Labour for not even planning "to reduce or restrain" this debt. And while recognising that €1.5 billion had to be spent on the pandemic, he attributes another €1.3 billion of debt on "waste and bad govern- ance". Grech's assumption is that if he manages to cut the pork bar- rel there will be enough money to fund his promises. But while criticising government for basing its projections on a substantial in- crease in revenue from VAT over and above pre pandemic levels, the same Grech promises to slash VAT on restaurants to 7% and to exempt businesses earning a turnover of €60,000 from collect- ing and paying VAT. Moreover his speech does not indicate a clear plan to reduce debt but includes un-costed promises, which would further deplete the public coffers, with their sustainability hinging on his promise to attract new econom- ic sectors to fuel growth. On this aspect he vaguely hints at attract- ing internet giants like Google and Facebook in the same way as Malta attracted gaming com- panies during the Gonzi admin- istration, without even saying what he would offer in return for attracting these predatory giants – with a dubious ethical track re- cord on tax avoidance and data mining – to Malta. And while Grech repeatedly re- ferred to Malta's greylisting, he expects this not to impact on his own ability to attract investment as if he possesses a magic wand to restore the country's shattered reputation. 2. With his chance of winning being so slim, can he convince the electorate that he is actually in a position to implement his promises or is he promising the sun and moon while his sole aim remains that of reducing the gap to secure another chance in the election after the next? Grech's budget speech includes a number of imaginative propos- als ranging from a €500 grant to young people spending a sojourn in another EU country to a free doctor of your choice for over- 60s. He even promises a front- liners' bonus and a "substantial increase" in teachers' salaries. For sure it indicates a revival in the party's role as a factory of new ide- as. While this propositionary and generous approach dispels fears of an austerity-driven PN gov- ernment reminiscent of Gonzi's final years in government, it also hinges on the electorate's belief that a PN government is actually electable and in a position to im- plement these promises. For the greatest doubt Grech faces is the perception that the PN is promising the sun and moon simply because it knows that its best hope in the next elec- tion is to reduce the gap. 3. Why is he promising to im- plement his socially regressive tax cut for high-income earners in the first budget, while not taking the same commitment with regards to his living wage proposal? As Lawrence Gonzi did before the 2008 election when he prom- ised to widen the 25% tax bracket to those earning up to €60,000, Grech is now promising to wid- en it again to those earning up to €80,000, thus leaving €2,000 more in the pockets of a category which is not exactly in need of an income supplement. As was he case in 2008, this pro- posal is aimed at a constituency which has traditionally support- ed the party but which may have become apathetic and possibly seduced by Labour's aspiration- al discourse. It is also a category which benefitted the least from the budget, which was more tar- geted towards low-income earn- ers. But the socially regressive na- ture of this promise, which would see high-income earners pay less Vision Work Workers Families Gozo Electoral proposal Electric cars/Charging station Change Young People Utility Bills Environment New Nationalist government Farmers Public Transport Grey listing Tra c Corruption Dwellings Taxes Pandemic Front liners/nurses Wages Cost of Living Teachers Vitals Direct orders Electrogas Airmalta PBS Businesmen Reputation Solar farms Rents Dom Minto Persons of trust Middle class Shop owners Trees Sexual health Zonqor ODZ Daphne Caruana Galizia Precarious work IVF Living wage 23 23 20 20 17 16 13 12 12 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Bernard Grech's Budget reply: Most mentioned keywords In one of his finest moments, Bernard Grech gave Malta a glimpse of a future PN government by unveiling a manifesto amid talk of an imminent snap election. James Debono asks five questions Grech must answer to turn his vision into a compelling reason to vote for the underdog