Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1422293
NEWS ANALYSIS 7 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 27 OCTOBER 2021 of an early election. Cry wolf opposition? It was the Opposition Na- tionalist Party that had been crying wolf about an imminent election in November since August. Sources in the party say that this fuelled by unmis- takable signs of electoral mo- bilisation from the other side. "We could not risk being tak- en by surprise. We had to give the impression that we were a step ahead and the signs were all there." The repeated stories in the Nationalist Party's weekly paper il-Mument which an- nounced a November election with certainty since August, may well have been intended as a wake-up call for party ac- tivists. At that stage the party was trying to galvanise its base into action. Fearing an im- pending Labour landslide and a high abstention rate in its own ranks, the PN needed to oil its machine, keep up the political heat and galvanise an apathetic pale-blue vote. Yet Abela did cross a line by keeping speculation rife af- ter his own budget speech, in which he gave credence to a November election by saying: "It's the people who'll decide if this budget gets implemented". Sure enough, this could be in- terpreted in different ways. For if an election is held in the first quarter or even second quar- ter of 2022, it would have still not been implemented in full. By deliberately keeping spec- ulation rife and not excluding a November election at that stage, Abela's toying with the opposition started sounding infantile and irresponsible. Abela may certainly not be blamed for a rumour spun by the Opposition in its own newspaper in summer. But by prolonging uncertainty in his own budget speech, Abela was now actively contributing to uncertainty. At that stage, even those who were ruling out an election in 2021 for logical reasons, started having their doubts as the country was gripped by electoral fever. Deciphering Abela: Indecision or ruse? That is why on Monday Abela had to put an end to the cha- rade by excluding an election in 2021, something he had re- fused to rule out till Monday. Why did Abela wait so long to make this announcement? One reason is that the temp- tation did exist. Based on cur- rent polling, Abela was within reach of a landslide comparable to Joseph Muscat's in 2013 and 2017. In this he may have been torn between his instinct to se- cure the majority which gives him a strong mandate to rid himself of Joseph Muscat's leg- acy, and his yearning to dispel the idea that Labour is unable to complete a whole legislative term. He may have had pressure from inside his party to seize a favourable moment. Yet with very little signs of a recovery by the Opposition and a budget whose effects will be felt in the first months of the year, there was no compelling reason not to hold the election in the first quarter of next year. Testing the waters One more plausible reason for prolonging uncertainty on the election date, was that Abela wanted to keep the PN guess- ing, forcing it into premature election mode, already taxing on its limited resources. He wanted their arsenal de- pleted before the real cam- paign starts. Talk of an immi- nent election has a clear impact on the Opposition, with PN leader Bernard Grech using his speech in parliament to unveil his own electoral proposals. It remains to be seen whether the PN has used all its policy ammunition or whether it has kept some proposals for the campaign itself. Moreover expectations of an early election also exposed one big contradiction in the oppo- sition: a fiscally conservative critique of the budget focused on debts and deficits, coupled by a bonanza of costly propos- als, which flew in the face of the party's fiscal concerns. And by forcing the Opposi- tion in campaign mode, Ab- ela's strategists have had the opportunity to see how the PN would operate in an elec- toral campaign, thus being in a better position to anticipate Grech's moves in the real elec- toral campaign. Still it was not just the PN, which took the bait. To Abela's advantage, even in his own par- ty speculation of an imminent election was rife with Abela holding his cards to his chest. This had the desired impact on ministers and candidates who with an election possibly, had no choice but to set the ground running with their constituen- cy campaign. And Abela can still keep the opposition on its toes, as spec- ulation now is on whether Ab- ela will call for an election by March or whether he will seek to dispel the idea that Labour is unable to complete an entire legislative term, elusive since 1987, by completing the full term and call the election in June. The only unpredictable factor over which Abela has no control is the pandemic. What is sure is that as a result of the antics of both government and opposition, Malta remains entangled in a permanent and re- lentless electoral campaign car- ried out in the absence of rules limiting the power of incumben- cy and the dark influence of do- nors on parties, which need even more money to conduct longer and costlier campaigns. One first concrete step to stop this kind of uncertainty would be the introduction of fixed-term parliaments as sug- gested by ADPD and earlier by Repubblika. But this remains unlikely. For neither the PL nor the PN are keen on limit- ing the PM's power to call for an election at the most favour- able moment. Four front page articles published by the PN media on 29 August 2021, 5 September 2021, 12 September 2021 and 24 October 2021