Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1426475
maltatoday | SUNDAY • 7 NOVEMBER 2021 MALTATODAY SURVEY 11 Labour ahead by 46,000 votes, PN gains three points KURT SANSONE SUPPORT for the Labour Party re- mains unchanged at 43.3% but the Nationalist Party climbs by almost three points to 29.8%, in MaltaTo- day's November survey. ADPD registers 0.8%, while 11.6% will not vote. There are 13.5% of vot- ers who are unsure who to vote for. The gap between the major parties is now at 13.5 points, which trans- lates into a difference of more than 46,000 votes in Labour's favour. The vote difference is obtained by using declared voting intention as a percentage of eligible voters. This also assumes that those who voted in the 2017 election but are today un- sure, will vote again for the same party. New unsure voters are not assigned. This method dif- fers from the previ- ous methods used to estimate the voter gap and will contin- ue being used. If, the PN man- ages to capture all new voters who are unsure, the gap will drop to just over 34,000 in favour of the PL, which is similar to the 2017 general election result. The PL leads across all age groups and in four of the six regions across Malta and Gozo. The survey was carried out be- tween 28 October and 3 November, in the aftermath of the budget and the leaders' speeches in parliament. Among voters aged between 16 and 35, the PL scores 32.4% against the PN's 12.8%, a 20-point gap. Among those aged between 36 and 50, the PL scores 40.1% against the PN's 28.5%. The PL enjoys an absolute majority among those aged between 51 and 65 with 52.3%, another 20-point lead over the PN. The parties come closest among pensioners, where the PL scores 48.6% and the PN registers 44.2%. On a geographical basis, the PL is ahead in Gozo, the Northern Har- bour, the South-Eastern and the Southern Harbour regions. The PN wins in the Northern and Western regions. The PL's best result is in the South-East- ern region, where it scores 66%. Its worst result is in the West- ern region, where it scores 31%. The PN's best re- sult is in the North- ern region, where it receives the sup- port of 39.9%. Its worst result is in the South-Eastern re- gion where it scores a lowly 11.9%. The PL retains 83.9% of people who voted for it in the 2017 general elec- tion, while the PN retains 72.4% of its voters. However, the PN loses 2.7% of those who voted for it in 2017 to the PL, while only 0.3% of PL voters will now vote PN. The Opposition party has more voters than its rival, who are unsure or will not vote if an election is held today. S Eastern S Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 65.8% 9.7% 22.3% 57.9% 24.5% 15.4% 33.4% 40.1% 23.0% Which political party would you vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow? Overall PL 2017 PN 2017 Didn't vote 2017 Male Female 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 43.3% 29.8% 13.4% 11.6% 83.9% 10.0% 72.4% 13.6% 9.5% 10.9% 29.5% 49.0% 43.8% 29.0% 13.0% 10.8% 42.8% 30.6% 13.9% 12.4% 32.4% 12.8% 26.1% 24.6% 40.1% 28.5% 15.3% 14.8% 52.3% 32.9% 9.5% 48.6% 44.2% 48.3% 44.0% 51.2% 29.2% 9.8% 8.5% 39.3% 31.4% 16.8% 12.6% 32.9% 22.9% 20.8% 19.6% 41.9% 34.2% 18.8% 33.1% 39.9% 13.5% 12.2% 38.7% 31.5% 14.9% 13.1% 66.0% 11.9% 9.5% 11.9% 52.6% 23.9% 8.4% 12.5% 31.0% 37.4% 17.3% 11.2% PL PN ADPD Do not know No vote -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Jan-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 07-May-17 21-May-17 1-June-17 19-Nov-17 4-Mar-18 3-June-18 2-Sept-18 11-Nov-18 03-Feb-19 07-Apr-19 3-Nov-19 15-Mar-20 24-May-20 19-Jul-20 11-Oct-20 6-Dec-20 7-Feb-21 11-Apr-21 6-Jun-21 5-Sep-21 7-Nov-21 PL PN ADPD PD Far-right Don't know Not Voting Historical voting polls The gap between the major parties is now at 13.5 points, which translates into a difference of more than 46,000 votes in Labour's favour. The PN's best result is in the Northern region, where it receives the support of 39.9%. Its worst is in the South- Eastern region with a lowly 11.9%