Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1426475
8 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 7 NOVEMBER 2021 INTERVIEW Climate change will not wait for us Protesting outside COP26, ac- tivist Greta Thunberg accused world leaders of "pretending to take our future seriously". Do you agree with the criticism that these summits only create the impression that progress is being made, while not enough is really being done on the ground? I do, yes. There are different de- grees of 'agreement', perhaps… but as to whether that statement is true or not, the evidence is all there. Important decisions to cut greenhouse gas emissions, and to remove their sources, have been postponed all too often in the past. We have prolonged the ag- ony of having to take such deci- sions for too long; although there have been important exceptions from time to time, such as the 2015 Paris agreement; and before that, the Kyoto protocol. The problem, however, is that the reality of what scientists are now telling us, is not aligned with the policy actions that need to take place. For instance, if you have a little crack in your ceil- ing, and water is seeping in… you have to take action immediately (assuming you have the resourc- es) because you know, otherwise, that the problem will only get worse. But so far, we seem to be ignor- ing this 'little crack'… which is already getting wider and wider… Commenting on the summit, MEP Roberta Metsola argued that "we can grow economies and simultaneously reduce greenhouse gas emissions", and that "countries do not have to choose between econom- ic success and protecting the environment". Prime Minister Robert Abela seems to share her optimism. Do you? Is it pos- sible to have effective climate action, without making hard economic sacrifices? Well… it's going to be very ex- pensive to achieve that balance. In theory, it can be done; but the cost will be very high, because you have to find the right re- sources not to 'shock the system' too much. Unless there is government support to cushion the impact, it will be the people who end up having to pay the price; and this will naturally turn them against the politicians who took those decisions, and not vote them back into power. So to avoid that, any government will have to take costly decisions… However, there are two other issues here. First of all, radical changes have already happened in the past. We have managed to come together, and take certain decisions to change things for the better. For example, when we banned the use of certain gases, the protect the ozone layer. Even in terms of protection of human rights – although of course, there have been wars and conflicts that were not in line with this – over- all, as an international commu- nity, we have clearly taken great strides forward. This is why I don't agree with those who say, 'It is too late to take a decision'. No: we have been successful in the past, and we can succeed again. But obviously, the longer we delay this process, the higher the cost will be, and the shorter the timeframe for us to do it in. Because climate change is not going to wait for us to de- cide. It is already knocking on our doors… Having said this, the issue is it- self a bit of a Catch-22 situation. In general, our economic system as a whole is… sick. It has to be changed. And, not unlike green- house gas emissions: the problem has to be dealt with at source. Ours is an economic system which measures the economy only on the basis of income; and this is absurd, because we don't live only on income... either as countries, or individuals. We have other things to measure by: health, education, social well-be- ing, and so on. But unless these things really are measured, and given a value… will not be able to 'change the system'. So as things stand, economic growth – i.e., increasing income – remains the only objective that countries, and people, real- ly aspire to. That is the context in which governments take their decisions: even because it affects their own re-election chances… But from that perspective, the question becomes: what can we do, to both meet our climate change obligations, and also guarantee sustained econom- ic growth? And do you think the changes being negotiated at COP26 – ex. to limit global warming to 1.5C – are suffi- cient? In truth, there is quite a lot that can be done. Both the Prime Minister and Roberta Metsola were, I would say, correct in what they said… in the sense that, yes, it is possible for governments to support the economy through the transition period, in a way that will not shock the system too much. There will, of course, be 'winners' and 'losers' - and as I said, it will be very expensive – but it can be done. The important thing, however, is that we take the right stance today; and approach the chal- lenge with the right roadmap. On this, I believe that both Malta and the EU are generally on the right track. But they haven't un- derstood the speed at which they have to implement these changes. For instance: you asked me whether the 1.5C target is 'suffi- cient'…. to be honest, it's the only target we have left. We've already exceeded all the previous ones, set in 2015 and earlier. And we already know, from now, that this one won't be met either: because there are too many countries that are off-track. And this means that, in reality, it will be more than 1.5C… But even if we do succeed in reaching it, it will still not be enough: because what the sci- ence is telling us is that… we are cutting things very fine. The deadline is getting very tight. So unless we respond to this as an emergency – as a matter of life and death; including for profits and business – we will certainly be looking at an increase of two, or even more, degrees in the next 20, 30 or 40 years. So no, I don't think the decisions taken by COP have been brave On paper, the climate change commitments undertaken by politicians – both in Malta and the EU – are a step in the right direction. But according to Dr STEFANO MONCADA, of the Malta University's Islands and Small States Institute, we could (and should) be doing much better Raphael Vassallo rvassallo@mediatoday.com.mt JAMES BIANCHI