Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1426940
IN a month marked by intense specula- tion on an imminent election and rising political temperature, scepticism among 16-35s reached an annual peak, with the percentage of young voters committed to vote PN or PL falling from an annual high of 67% in July, to just 45% now; and the percentage who trust either Bernard Grech or Robert Abela falling from 74% in July to 56% now. The new divide The survey suggests that a new demo- graphic divide is setting in, one between apathetic or disenchanted young voters, whose partisan loyalties are waning; and the stronger partisan bonds among old- er voters, particularly among those aged over 50. In fact, while only 45% of under-35s intend to vote for either PN or PL, the percentage of PL-PN voters rises to 69% among those aged 36-59, and to 85% among those aged 51-65, and 92% for those over-65. Moreover, the percentage of thoseunder-35s who would abstain is six times higher than that among those aged over 50. But even more significant is the trend which has seen political scepticism among under-35s increase as the election got closer, in an indication that younger voters have recoiled from political trib- alism as the political parties started to beat the drums louder. This suggests ei- ther those younger voters are the last to be seized by the electoral fever, which has already captivated older voters, or that younger voters are increasingly recoiling at attempts to mobilise them. In fact between July and now, the per- centage of those who do not trust either Grech or Abela has increased from 25% in July to a staggering 39% now. So far this disenchantment with the po- litical system among the young has not translated into any significant increase in support for third parties. In fact, despite the increase in political scepticism among this cohort, only 2% of young voters will be voting ADPD. Sup- port for ADPD among older voters is lower and practically inexistent among over 50-year-olds. Still, the survey sug- gests that third parties may still find a fertile ground among younger voters in a campaign where they gain more visibili- ty. The fact that younger voters are also more sensitive about environmental is- sues should in theory bolster support for the greens in this category, as is the case in other EU member states like Germany, where green parties are most popular in younger cohorts. But these results suggest that ADPD is still struggling to capture the imagination of young people and in such a context not voting may become a stronger statement than voting for a third party with limited chances of making a breakthrough. PN more penalised by abstention MaltaToday surveys also suggest that the PN is more penalised than Labour by waning partisan loyalties among younger voters. In fact, a comparison between the latest survey and the one in July shows that a 10-point increase in non-voters has seen support for the PN decrease by 19 points in contrast to a smaller three-point dip for Labour. And a 15-point increase in the number of younger voters who trust neither political leader has translated in a 12-point dip for Grech and a six-point decrease for Abela. This suggests that while a large segment of young people are disenchanted by both major parties, the latest bout of scepti- cism has had a sharper impact on the PN, in what could be another indication that partisan loyalties are weaker among PN-leaning voters. And while the PL scores a low 32% among younger voters, the PN trails at just 13%. Even more worrying for the PN is that Labour has more room to grow because in this cohort while Abela is 8 points more popular than his party, Grech is only two points more popular. Moreover, the abstention figures among younger voters mirror those of ter- tiary-educated voters, a category in which 36% trust neither Abela or Grech and 20% will not vote. But while Labour and Abela lead among younger voters, tertiary-edu- cated voters still lean towards the PN. This could be an indication that abstention is highest among younger tertiary-educated voters hailing from PN-leaning families. It also suggests that the party's budget proposals targeting younger voters-like the promised €500 grant in travel vouch- ers for young people have not hit home. One problem could be that with little chance of getting elected, the PN finds it hard to convince voters that its proposals are even realizable. The low scores by the party among the young may also explain Grech's attempt to ditch his party's social conservatism but with Labour stands at an advantage, being the party which can deliver reforms like the one liberalizing the recreational use of cannabis. A non-voters' party? The survey results beg the question: are polls indicating an increase in abstention in the next general election? The polls suggest that over-35s are already clos- ing ranks behind their respective par- ties. In fact, over the past month while the abstention rate has increased among under-35s, it has remained unchanged among those aged 36-50, and decreased among the over-50s. In this way, the increase in non-voters among the young has been offset by a de- crease in non-voters among older voters. 8 ANALYSIS maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 10 NOVEMBER 2021 Breaking free? Only youths set to vote PN 70 Won't vote Undecided Committed to vote Don't trust either leader 39% of 16-35s trust neither party, 25% will are committed to the PN or PL – and intensification of campaigning during Political scepticism among January to November Breaking free? Only 45% of youths set to vote PN and PL 39% of 16-35s trust neither party, 25% will not vote, and only 45% are committed to the PN or PL – and all this despite an intensification of campaigning during the last month. Is this a sign of a higher abstention in next year's election, or will the abstention rate dissipate as the election drums get louder in a real campaign, asks James Debono While a large segment of young people are disenchanted by both major parties, the latest bout of scepticism has had a sharper impact on the PN, in what could be another indication that partisan loyalties are weaker among PN- leaning voters