Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1432205
8 ANALYSIS maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 24 NOVEMBER 2021 An early Xmas? How Abela is lowering the heat JAMES DEBONO AFTER weeks of intense pre- budget campaigning in what many interpreted as a sign of an imminent election, Robert Abela has suddenly withdrawn from the fray. The Prime Minister has given the public a break, stopping Sun- day sermons in party clubs and refocusing debate on a cannabis reform Bill. This move has left the Opposi- tion disoriented at a time when it was expecting a general election. Abela's backseat approach has left it up to the Nationalist Par- ty to keep up the momentum it needs to mount a credible chal- lenge in the election, which has to take place in the first half of 2022. But is this Abela's way of neu- tering the Opposition or just a well-deserved Christmas break for a country fatigued by COV- ID-19 and politics? As things stand it is the Opposi- tion, which needs to keep up the heat on government in its, so-far elusive gamble, to cut Labour's insurmountable lead in the polls. A de-escalation of political heat benefits the party in government, which only needs to consolidate its lead in the surveys without taking unnecessary risks. And while the Opposition needs to boost the morale of its demor- alised troops, Abela can bank on his supporters' enthusiasm galva- nized by surveys. Abela's no risk strategy To some extent this is not a new strategy. Since being elected PL leader Abela has avoided any debate with the new Opposition leader Bernard Grech. Abela had constantly denied Grech a shared platform, which he desperately needs to build up his public persona and gravitas as an alternative prime minister. By the time Abela would face Grech in face-to-face electoral debates, most voters would have already made up their minds. Moreover, Abela has also not given interviews with the inde- pendent media, thus avoiding uncomfortable questions on his relationship with his predecessor. Abela has largely kept aloof of partisan confrontation, benefit- ting from the inevitable exposure in his role as Prime Minister rath- er than as party leader. And de-escalation comes with an added benefit for Labour; it goes down well with middle of the road voters turned off by con- stant electioneering and yearning for a serene and elongated Christ- mas season. For the Opposition, this repre- sents another dilemma. The Op- position cannot afford to lower the heat on serious issues like the scandalous €100 million ter- mination penalty in the hospitals deal with Steward but at the same time it cannot afford to look like a divisive Grinch out of synch with a public yearning for a time out. Festive cannabis Additionally, the Opposition has little to gain from the contro- versy generated by the last major Bill being discussed in parliament before the Christmas recess - the cannabis reform Bill. The controversy has only served to reinforce the PN's detachment from its own liberal wing and un- able to score points among con- servatives, because of Grech's in- itial flirtation with the proposed law when he claimed credit for government's inclusion of pro- visions for the sale of cannabis from non-profit clubs. Labour is fighting on a favour- able terrain – it appeals to social liberal young voters while at the same time exposing Grech's con- tradictions to offset any collateral damage among its own socially conservative voters. In its attempt to score any points among conservative voters, the PN may well end up alienating its own liberals who recoil at the party's reluctance to 'normalise' a lifestyle which they consider mainstream. While Labour does risk being out of sync with a silent majority that sees cannabis legalisation a step too far, it is more likely for people benefitting from the re- form who will change their vote, than people who are sceptical of it. As happened on other issues like same sex adoptions, 'culture wars' have been more damaging to the PN than to Labour, whose conservative wing is dormant and loyal. In contrast, Labour has evaded controversy on environmental issues, by postponing major de- cisions like the Marsaskala yacht marina and land reclamation to after the election, in a bid to avoid damaging controversies in local communities. The risk is that residents will wake up to these controversies As things stand, the Opposition needs to keep up the heat on government in its, so-far elusive gamble, to cut Labour's insurmountable lead in the polls. And while the Opposition needs to boost the morale of its demoralised troops, Robert Abela can bank on his supporters' enthusiasm galvanised by surveys