MaltaToday previous editions

MaltaToday 8 December 2021 MIDWEEK

Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1435908

Contents of this Issue

Navigation

Page 8 of 15

9 ANALYSIS maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 8 DECEMBER 2021 had already been the case in 2020 in polls showing a surge for Abela after he fired the former police commissioner and kicked Konrad Mizzi out of the party. The reluctant PN voter A segment of 'reluctant' PN voters are al- ready putting a peg on their noses. A staggering 16% of current PN voters trust neither of the two leaders, the high- est in the past year. While this is an indi- cation that the party is still holding the fort, it does not bode well for enthusiasm among current voters whose mobilization will be crucial to galvanize the party dur- ing next year's election campaign. In con- trast Abela's strong rating of 98% among current Labour voters and 90% of its 2017 voters suggests a higher level of enthusiasm among party supporters on the eve of the campaign. So, what is leading to the constant erosion of PN support? One factor could be inter- nal factional splits and bad blood following an acrimonious leadership contest just two years before a general election. But the sur- vey suggests that under Bernard Grech, the PN still fails to inspire those very categories in which Adrian Delia was even less popu- lar than Grech. One particular segment crucial for any PN recovery are tertiary-educated voters, including those hailing from working class backgrounds whose support was crucial in securing EU membership for Malta. The survey indicates that this category contains a large number of reluctant Nationalist vot- ers. Significantly in this category, while the PN enjoys a 6-point lead over Labour, Ab- ela still leads Grech by 8 points. This is mainly because while 24% of tertiary edu- cated voters declare that they trust neither party leader, 'only' 15% will not be voting. Therefore, a big chunk of tertiary-educat- ed voters who distrust both leaders will still vote PN in a general election. The low trust in both political leaders among this cate- gory could also reflect a cultural aversion to 'demigod' leaders and distrust in the en- tire political system in a category, which is angriest at Labour's track record on good governance and the environment. This is why the PN needs to recover these disillusioned and finicky voters to avoid a massacre in the polls. Volatile young vote Young voters are another category where the PN is stronger than its leader. Here the PN is 10 points more popular than Grech who is trusted by just 23% of these voters. In contrast, Abela is 12 points more popular than his party in a category where Labour is surprisingly trailing the PN by 2 points. This represented an improvement for the PN compared to November. As things stand, the volatility of young voters re- mains one of the most unpredictable fac- tors in the forthcoming election. But while the PN's score in this bracket, suggests that a chunk of young PN voters who distrust both party leaders would still vote PN, Abela's higher score suggests that a larger chunk of younger voters may be in transit towards Labour. The gap between Abela and his own party suggests that La- bour has more room for future growth even in this category. What the survey shows is that younger voters are the only category where a large category is still undecided. This raises the question whether the PN is even trying to capitalise on possible dissat- isfaction among younger voters who may be swayed by a less conservative and envi- ronmentally conscious PN. It may well be the case that in its fear of disappointing its more vociferous elderly voters, the party risks turning off the on- ly large segment of the population, which is showing signs of movement. Yet in do- ing so the party is paralysed by unresolved identity questions dating back to the after- math of the EU referendum, which have never been resolved. wipeout? The PN's prospects 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 January March June September December PN voters in 2017 who prefer Robert Abela PN voters in 2017 who say they will vote Labour PL voters in 2017 who prefer Bernard Grech PL voters in 2017 who say they will vote PN The PN could be heading for a repeat of the 2013/17 losses or a wipe-out that increases Labour's majority greatly. It all depends on whether undecided, young voters shift one way or the other Percentage of 2017 PN and PL voters who trust other party leader and who would vote for opposite party 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 Jan March June September December 13.3 6.3 10 2.4 20.6 9.8 7.2 2.4 18.4 8.4 4 2.8 21.4 2.5 9 0.4 6.9 15.5 2.5 Voted PN in 2017 Voted PL in 2017 Wil vote PN Will vote Labour Percentage of 2017 PN and PL voters who now trust neither Abela nor Grech 18-35s and university graduates who trust neither leader 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 January March June September December 25.6 28 31.6 28.3 24.2 24.4 32.6 35.5 24 29.3 Tertiary-educated 18-35 voters

Articles in this issue

Archives of this issue

view archives of MaltaToday previous editions - MaltaToday 8 December 2021 MIDWEEK