Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1438848
AS 2021 draws to a close, there is an ominous fear that it may do so in the same way as it began: i.e., with another explosion of daily COVID-19 infections, of the kind we experienced this time last year. On 23 December 2020, for instance, this newspaper reported that: "Family doctors have issued a warning to people not to treat the Christmas season 'like last summer', when caution was thrown to the wind and a subsequent surge in COVID-19 cases resulted…" With hindsight, we can now assert that those fears were entirely well-grounded. In the months after the Christmas season, the number of new cases sky-rock- eted from only one or two infections daily, to a stag- gering 500+ in a single day in March. At a purely superficial glance, today;s situation does appear to be vaguely similar. In terms of sheer num- bers alone, the recent surge has been alarming, to say the least: with Health Minister Chris Fearne even declaringthat "Almost four out of every 100 COVID tests in Malta are resulting positive" (which brings our active case-load almost back to mid-2020 levels… when the country was in a full-blown emergency.) Nonetheless, there are also significant differences between the situation today, and 12 months ago. Despite the fact that well over 200 cases have been reported in the space of just 24 hours this week: the corresponding statistic for COVID-related hospitali- sations – and, much more pertinently, cases requir- ing emergency treatment, or resulting in fatalities – is visibly much lower today, than it was in 2020. As Public Health Superintendent Charmaine Gau- ci confirmed recently: figures from November 15 last year reveal that, out of the 2,172 active cases at the time, 185 people - that is to say, 8.5% of the total – required hospitalisation. That compares with 13 in hospital on the same date in 2021: which works out at only 2.2% of the 603 ac- tive cases; and, more encouragingly still, the same re- duction can also be seen in terms of both ITU cases, and also fatalities. Looking back, there can only be one realistic expla- nation for this discrepancy between the figures for 2020, and 2021: clearly, the vaccination programme has indeed been successful… if not in keeping conta- gions down (which was never its intended purpose), then at least in protecting people from the more se- vere, and potentially lethal, effects of the disease it- self. This does not, of course, lessen the validity of the above-quoted medical advice – which remains just as relevant today, as it has been since the crisis started – but it does provide at least a small silver lining, to a dark cloud which is unlikely drift away any time in the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, today's situation is also different to- day for other, less positivereasons. As Dr Fearne also warned, the cause of the latest global COVID spike is a combination of waning vaccine immunity, and a more transmissible variant [Omicron] So far, the health authorities have not reported any Omicron cases here in Malta: although it is surely only a matter of time before this occurs. What this also means, however, is that the vaccine success we have experienced this year, has only been registered in cases of the original COVID-19 virus... and not the variant that is currently spreading like wildfire across Europe. The results remain undeniably positive: in the sense that - despite waning vaccine immunity as a result of the passage of time (and which also necessitates fre- quent boosters) - vaccinated people who do contract COVID are generally experiencing mild symptoms, compared to unvaccinated people. Moreover, while the Omicron variantappears to be more contagious than the original virus… so far, in- ternational experience has not suggested that it is any more lethal or dangerous than its predecessor (in- deed, the opposite appears likely to be true). Paradoxically, however, this very fact may end up jeopardising the ongoing efforts against COVID-19: not just here in Malta (where there is palpable evi- dence of rising frustration among the populace)… but particularly in the rest of the Europe, where vaccine scepticism is much higher to begin with; and where the reintroduction of lock-downs is resulting in dan- gerously high levels of social unrest. Given that the new variant appears, at a glance, to be less threatening than the parent virus… more and more people (including the already-vaccinated) may be tempted to forgo the safety of yet another boost- er injection: either because they have lost faith in the vaccine itself; or, more likely, out of misplaced con- fidence that they are already sufficiently protected from the disease. Within this uncertain context, it was entirely fitting that Health Minister Fearne harped on the impor- tance of getting the booster dose: rightly arguing that "In the summer and autumn, we did well because of the high vaccination rate that protected us all. Now we need the booster to protect us for the winter months." It remains to be seen whether this medical warning will be heeded, the second time round; nonetheless, the same health strategy has already visibly worked, to avoid the sort of emergency situations we found ourselves in this time last year. Vaccination worked in 2020; let's do our bit to make it work again 11 LETTERS & EDITORIAL maltatoday MaltaToday, MediaToday Co. Ltd, Vjal ir-Rihan, San Gwann SGN 9016 MANAGING EDITOR: SAVIOUR BALZAN EXECUTIVE EDITOR: MATTHEW VELLA EDITOR: PAUL COCKS Tel: (356) 21 382741-3, 21 382745-6 Website: www.maltatoday.com.mt E-mail: dailynews@mediatoday.com.mt maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 22 DECEMBER 2021