Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1443447
MALTATODAY SURVEY 9 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 16 JANUARY 2022 KURT SANSONE THE Labour Party enjoys a 15-point lead over the Nationalist Party at the start of election year but both have seen support decline. The January MaltaToday survey puts the PL's support at 43.5% and that of the PN at 28.6%. Support for ADPD stands at 0.9% and other political formations record 0.6%. Non-voters declined by one point to 10.4%, while uncertain voters increased by almost four points to 13.9%. Support for Labour declined by 2.4 points over the December survey, while that for the PN dropped by 3.3 points. Labour enjoys a lead of 14.9 points over the PN, 0.9 points more than last month's findings. Labour leads by a majority of almost 46,000 votes. This difference is obtained by working out the declared voting inten- tion as a percentage of eligible voters and assuming that those who voted for the par- ty in 2017 but are to- day unsure, will vote again for the same party. New voters who are unsure are not as- signed. The gap will decline to just under 33,000 votes in the unlikely scenario that the PN captures all new un- sure voters. In the last general election, the gap between the two major parties stood at just over 35,000 votes. The survey was held between 5 and 12 January in the aftermath of Silvio Grix- ti's resignation from parliament, in the midst of a surge of COVID-19 cases and concurrently with reports of David Thake's VAT problems that eventually led to his resignation as MP. Labour leads across all age groups The survey shows the PL leading the PN across all age groups and four of the six regions. Among young voters aged between 16 and 35, the PL enjoys the support of 31.4% against the PN's 28.4%. This is the cohort with the largest group of unde- cided voters (20.9%). The PL's support among pensioners stands at 52.1% versus the PN's 36.6%. Labour also enjoys substantial advan- tage among those aged between 36 and 65. On a geographical basis, the PL leads in Gozo, the Northern, South-Eastern and Southern Harbour regions. The PN is ahead in the Northern Harbour and the Western regions. In Gozo, the PL enjoys substantial sup- port at 59.1% against the PN's 29.5%. This is also the region where most vot- ers appear to be decided on party choice if an election is held now. In the South-Eastern region, the PL scores 60.9% against the PN's 11.6%. The PL's best result is in the Southern Har- bour with 63.5%, while the PN registers 17.1%. In the Northern re- gion, Labour's support stands at 34.9%, put- ting it just ahead of the PN with 32.1% The PN leads in the Northern Harbour re- gion, with 38.9% ver- sus the PL's 30.9%. In the Western region, the PN registers 36.9% against the PL's worst result at 21.8%. Regional numbers have to be treated with caution since the margin of error in sub- groups is much higher than the overall survey results. Voter retention The PL retains 81.2% of those who voted for it in the 2017 general election but loses 1.4% to the PN. Unsure voters account for 8.5% while PL 2017 voters who say they will not vote account for 7.5%. Voter retention for the PN stands at 70.5% and it loses 3.8% of 2017 voters to the PL. But the PN is also hampered by 15.7% of voters who are unsure what to do if an election is called now, and 9.4% who will not vote. Labour retains strong lead at start of 2022 election year S Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 67.7% 17.1% 13.5% 24.8% 33.0% 24.7% 17.5% Which political party would you vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow? Overall PL 2017 PN 2017 Didn't vote 2017 Male Female 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 43.5% 28.6% 13.9% 10.4% 81.2% 8.5% 7.5% 70.5% 15.7% 9.4% 6.0% 35.5% 34.6% 42.0% 28.5% 13.5% 12.6% 44.9% 28.6% 14.3% 8.2% 31.4% 28.4% 20.9% 13.6% 40.2% 26.3% 13.2% 17.7% 52.0% 22.4% 14.9% 7.8% 52.1% 36.6% 5.7% 58.2% 29.2% 7.8% 52.5% 27.0% 6.7% 10.2% 40.9% 28.1% 14.8% 12.5% 26.3% 30.6% 25.7% 13.3% 59.1% 29.5% 6.2% 34.9% 32.1% 20.0% 9.1% 30.9% 38.9% 16.6% 11.7% 60.9% 11.6% 12.5% 12.1% 63.5% 17.1% 6.7% 10.1% 21.8% 36.9% 18.9% 10.9% PL PN ADPD Far-right Do not know No vote -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Jan-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 07-May-17 21-May-17 1-June-17 19-Nov-17 4-Mar-18 3-June-18 2-Sept-18 11-Nov-18 03-Feb-19 07-Apr-19 3-Nov-19 15-Mar-20 24-May-20 19-Jul-20 11-Oct-20 6-Dec-20 7-Feb-21 11-Apr-21 6-Jun-21 5-Sep-21 7-Nov-21 16-Jan-22 PL PN ADPD PD Far-right Don't know Not Voting Historical voting polls Labour leads by a majority of almost 46,000 votes... The gap will decline to just under 33,000 votes in the unlikely scenario that the PN captures all new unsure voters