Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1445232
6 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 23 JANUARY 2022 NEWS -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 -0.3 -7.9 16.7 12.6 2.2 -4.4 7.2 13 22 21 38.3 40.5 3.6 15.7 32.6 -0.1 13 1.7 17.7 26.7 17.2 11.6 Percentage Percentage of monthly additional deaths in 2020-2021 compared to average deaths in 2016-2019 in Malta CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1 According to a spokesperson for the health ministry, excess deaths not attributed to COV- ID in 2020 are still being ana- lysed in depth by public health officials. "The OECD reports provides a crude estimate of excess deaths, compared to the previ- ous 3-5 years), the methodolo- gy used and also fluctuations in population amongst different age groups might give a differ- ent estimate than real figures," the spokesperson told Malta- Today. Malta is not unique in Europe where excess deaths were con- siderably higher than deaths directly attributed to COV- ID-19. For example, in Cyprus the number of excess deaths dur- ing March-December 2020 (567) was four times higher than COVID-19 deaths. In Spain during the same pe- riod, excess mortality (about 82,000 deaths) was about 60% greater than reported COV- ID-19 deaths (about 51,000). But in Germany the average gap between excess mortality and deaths related to COV- ID-19 amounted to only 2%. Of these, one quarter can be attributed to the peak in excess mortality during August 2020, when there was a heatwave. What is 'excess mortality'? Excess mortality refers to the number of deaths from all causes measured during a crisis, above what could be observed under 'normal' con- ditions. The baseline adopted consists of the average number of deaths that occurred in each of the 12 months during the period 2016-2019. Eurostat set up the 'excess mortality' indicator to moni- tor the situation in all mem- ber states statistics on excess deaths. The aim is to provide information about the burden of mortality potentially relat- ed to the COVID-19 pandem- ic, "thereby covering not only deaths that are directly attrib- uted to the virus but also those indirectly related to it". In addition to confirmed deaths, excess mortality cap- tures COVID-19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported, as well as deaths from other causes that may be attributed to the overall crisis situation. It also accounts for the partial absence of deaths from other causes like accidents that did not occur due, for example, to the limitations in commuting or travel during the lockdown periods. A report by The Economist in September estimates that 15 million more people have died during the COVID-19 pan- demic compared to historical norms. This figure was more than three times the reported COVID-19 deaths, which stood at 4.6 million people. While 1.1 million deaths were attributed to COVID-19 in Europe, the number of excess deaths stood between 1.8 and 1.9 million. How excess deaths fluctuated Fluctuations of excess deaths in Malta through 2020 and 2021 have largely followed the epidemiological waves of the pandemic. Statistics show that in Malta deaths immediately increased by 17% over pre pandemic av- erages at the outset of the pan- demic in March. But by June 2020 deaths were 4% lower than in pre pandemic years. Deaths started increasing again in autumn increasing to nearly 40% above pandemic levels in November and December. Ex- cess deaths decreased again by April when deaths were back to normal levels in pre pandemic years but started to increase again in the summer in July and August. In 2020, the EU experienced two waves of excess mortal- ity: the first between March and May 2020 (reaching a 25.3 % excess rate in April), then a longer one between Au- gust 2020 and February 2021 (reaching a 40.0 % excess rate in November 2020). In 2021, excess mortality reached a new peak in April (21.0 %) then de- creased to 10.6 % in May and fell to a minimum of 5.6 % in July. During summer 2021, the downward trend reversed and the EU rate increased again to reach 12.7 % in September, over the baseline period. In the autumn, there was a new rebound, with the EU excess mortality rate reaching 17.7 % in October and 26.5 % in No- vember 2021. Excess deaths being analysed by health officials Excess mortality indicator "The OECD reports provides a crude estimate of excess deaths, compared to the previous 3-5 years), the methodolog y used and also fluctuations in population amongst different age groups might give a different estimate than real figures"