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15 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 6 FEBRUARY 2022 NEWS illegal. Conflict later broke out in Donbass-the Russian speak- ing eastern part of the country that left 14,000 people dead. For the majority of Ukrainians living in the western part of the country, a durable alliance with the west provides the only as- surance against Russian aggres- sion. This is because if Ukraine becomes a NATO member any Russian attack would embroil the entire alliance in to an un- precedented full-scale war as the organisation is based on the principle that an attack on one member state is an attack on all member states. But as things stand now, Ukraine has no such guaran- tee and any Russian attack may well end up triggering a similar reaction to that following the annexation of Crimea i.e. wide- spread condemnation and sanc- tions but not enough to change the situation on the ground. And while NATO member- ship may deter any future Rus- sian attack on the Ukraine, the very prospect of Ukraine joining NATO gives Russia a pretext for its aggressive brink- manship in what has become a high stakes game for both sides. And while both sides are still reeling from COVID are not keen on an unprecedented war, they are locked in an escalation with unforeseen consequences. 6. Will the crisis be solved if Ukraine forgets about NATO and becomes neutral? The United States and its Western partners could offer the Russian government a pro- posal that both sides guarantee the neutrality of Ukraine. In re- turn, Russia would withdraw its troops from the Ukrainian bor- der and recognise the country's full sovereignty. But any such an agreement will have to address the status of the Donbass region and that of Crimea. Would such an agree- ment this be enough to satiate Putin's hunger or will it simply increase his appetite for more? The western powers are in- clined to think the worse about Putin, and have not entertained any of his demands. But a long- term solution, which has Putin on board, may well be the only alternative to a cold war, which may well have its hot spots. 7. Why is the Ukraine down- playing the crisis? Ukrainian President Volod- ymyr Zelenskyy has publicly downplayed the threat of an imminent Russian invasion in what Politico described as signs of "dissonance between Kyiv and Washington". "We do not see a bigger esca- lation that it has been before," Zelenskyy said of Russia's prov- ocations, adding that he did not think the security situation "is more intense than it was… at the peak time in early 2021." This contrasted with the as- sessments of U.S. officials, who repeatedly have warned that Moscow could move its troops across the border at any mo- ment. While downplaying the risk of a Russian invasion, Ukraine has been asking for more weapons to defend against one and has not given up on its ambition to join NATO. This suggests that while Ukraine fears an escala- tion of the crisis and is refrain- ing from incendiary rhetoric, which could further anger Mos- cow, it still wants those secu- rity guarantees from the west, which make Putin see red. 8. Why is Germany reluctant to arm Ukraine or send troops? Germany's refusal to join oth- er NATO members in provid- ing weapons to the Ukraine has annoyed some allies and raised questions about Berlin's resolve in standing up to Russia. Instead Germany has offered to supply 5,000 military helmets to Ukraine to help it defend it- self against a possible Russian invasion. Kyiv's mayor, Vitali Klitschko, dismissed the offer as "a joke" and said it had left him "speechless." One major consideration con- ditioning Germany dealings with Moscow is dependence on Russian gas. As Russian troops were amass- ing on the Ukraine a 1,225-kilo- metre pipeline linking Russia to Germany is ready but still awaiting regulatory approval. The energy project would dou- ble gas flow to Germany while bypassing Ukraine, which relies on existing pipelines for in- come. Germany has now threatened to scrap the pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine. But such a move against its biggest energy supplier would come at a high price for Germany. With plans to switch off its last three nu- clear power plants this year and phase out the use of coal by 2030, Germany's reliance on gas is set to increase in the short term before the country switches to renewable energy, a process which the Greens who are in government want to ac- celerate. Germany's reluctance to send more troops is however ground- ed in memories of the Second World War, which saw German troops committing atrocities on Ukrainian and Russian soil. Recently speaking alongside her Russian counterpart, for- eign Minister Annalena Baer- bock acknowledged the "suf- fering and destruction that we Germans brought upon the peoples of the Soviet Union" during the Nazi era, but warned that Germany was willing to consider tough steps if Russia acts against Ukraine. 9. Will the west really go to war over the Ukraine? NATO is under no obliga- tion to respond militarily to any Russian invasion of the Ukraine simply because Ukraine is not a member. But while further Rus- sian incursions in the Donbass region are likely to trigger a similar reaction to that follow- ing the annexation of Crimea, namely more sanctions, an un- likely full-blown invasion of the Ukraine would represent an ex- istential challenge to both NA- TO and the EU. As former German for- eign Minister Josckha Fischer warned an invasion of the Ukraine will put the in question the whole edifice of the post war European order, which is based on the renunciation of violence, self-determination, the inviola- bility of borders and territorial integrity. US President Joe Biden, who is still reeling from the debacle in Afghanistan, may be tempted to be more assertive in confront- ing Russia but may end up over- stretched especially in view of China's increased belligerence towards Taiwan. Moreover the prospect of military confrontation with a former super power with a nuclear arsenal and consider- able military might represents a different challenge than that posed by the US's enemies in Iraq and Afghanistan. In short it is extremely unlikely that western public opinion can sus- tain massive loss of life from a war, which would alter daily life in a continent reeling from the pandemic. In short war of such a scale is simply unthinkable in a continent, which has been largely at peace since 1945. It is far more likely that if Rus- sia was to invade Ukraine, the West's response will consist sanctions. But the same weap- on failed to make any difference after Russia annexed Crimea. Both the UK and the US have hinted sanctions of a scale, which have never seen before. "The mother of all sanc- tions", was how Bob Menendez, chairman of the US Senate's foreign-relations committee, described the package being assembled. But for sanctions to have any impact western states will also have to shoulder eco- nomic pain themselves. Another dilemma is whether such sanctions should come in force before an actual invasion to pre-empt it or only if Russia crosses the line. But the most likely scenario remains a vola- tile one; rearmament and troop movements along Ukraine's border and a military built up which may go out of control at any time. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (centre) has publicly downplayed the threat of an imminent Russian invasion in what Politico described as signs of "dissonance between Kyiv and Washington"; (left) German chancellor Olaf Scholz has threatened to scrap the pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine. But such a move against its biggest energy supplier would come at a high price for Germany; (right) US President Joe Biden, who is still reeling from the debacle in Afghanistan, may be tempted to be more assertive in confronting Russia but may end up overstretched especially in view of China's increased belligerence towards Taiwan