Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1448619
MALTATODAY SURVEY 9 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 6 FEBRUARY 2022 S Eastern S Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 55.1% 22.3% 22.6% 61.4% 10.9% 24.0% 37.8% 35.6% 25.1% Which political party would you vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow? Overall PL 2017 PN 2017 Didn't vote 2017 Male Female 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 44.1% 32.4% 11.5% 9.4% 83.8% 7.3% 74.8% 13.4% 7.5% 12.7% 12.1% 26.0% 42.4% 43.9% 33.9% 6.9% 12.8% 44.2% 30.9% 16.1% 6.1% 36.8% 24.0% 15.4% 18.9% 41.7% 25.9% 16.5% 12.6% 55.3% 33.2% 7.0% 43.1% 44.8% 7.4% 52.7% 36.1% 52.9% 32.7% 7.5% 6.4% 50.6% 25.3% 12.7% 9.7% 25.6% 33.9% 19.0% 15.7% 48.5% 22.3% 17.3% 11.9% 33.4% 37.4% 11.6% 13.0% 37.4% 45.6% 11.3% 53.5% 23.7% 11.9% 7.3% 63.1% 14.4% 10.0% 12.5% 33.2% 36.9% 10.1% 12.2% PL PN ADPD Far-right Do not know No vote -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Jun-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Nov-16 30-Apr-17 14-May-17 28-May-17 10-Oct-17 4-Feb-18 6-May-18 5-Aug-18 7-Oct-18 23-Dec-18 02-Mar-19 5-May-19 2-Feb-20 12-Apr-20 21-Jun-20 6-Sep-20 9-Nov-20 9-Jan-21 7-Mar-21 9-May-21 11-Jul-21 10-Oct-21 5-Dec-21 6-Feb-22 PL PN ADPD PD Far-right Don't know Not Voting Historical voting polls KURT SANSONE LABOUR could win an election with just under 36,000 votes over the National- ist Party, MaltaToday's February survey shows. The projected result will see the PL capturing 54.3% of the vote, against the PN's 42.8%. ADPD would poll 1.9%, a re- sult similar to 2017 although the gap has declined by just over 10,000 votes since MaltaToday's January survey. The projected result does not attribute voting preference to those who say they will not vote and new voters unsure who to vote for. Unsure voters, who voted in 2017, are assumed to be voting in line with their past preference. If all uncommitted new voters are as- sumed to vote for the PN – an unlikely scenario – the gap would drop to just un- der 26,000. PL stable, PN claws back A breakdown of the survey results shows that the PL voter share has remained sta- ble but a resurgent PN has managed to claw back some of the lost ground. The survey was conducted between 31 January and 4 February. The survey cap- tures the public mood in the wake of a po- lice raid on former prime minister Joseph Muscat's house; the disquiet caused by the removal of COVID vaccine certificate restrictions a couple of weeks after they came into force; the PN's in-your-face billboard campaign contrasting Robert Abela's previous retainer at the Plan- ning Authority with the squeeze people are facing as a result of rising prices; and crucially for Nationalist morale, Roberta Metsola's election as European Parlia- ment president. While none of these appear to have hurt the PL (its raw voting share has increased marginally by 0.6 points), the Prime Min- ister has experienced a drop in his trust rating of two points. It remains to be seen whether this snap- shot will develop into a trend but at the opposite end of the spectrum, the PN ap- pears to have been energised. The PN's raw voting share jumped up by almost four points, while Bernard Grech's trust rating has also improved by four points. This suggests some form of con- solidation among lukewarm PN voters. The impact of government's announce- ment on Thursday that it will distribute cash handouts to cushion the impact of inflation would not have been captured by this survey. A year on When compared to February last year, the PL is today in a better state, while the PN's resurgence still leaves it short of its performance 12 months ago. In February 2021, the PL's raw survey result clocked in at 41% (today: 44.1%) as the government faced the brunt of public anger over the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, while the PN registered 33% (today: 32.4%). At the time, Abela was almost seven points ahead of Grech on the trust ba- rometer. Today, the trust gap is more than double with Abela ahead by almost 15 points. PN wins among pensioners A deeper look at the raw survey results shows that the PL is leading the PN in all age groups apart from pensioners. Within the 65+ category, the PN enjoys a relative majority of 44.8% against the PL's 43.1%. Although these subgroups have higher margins of error, the PL's drop in sup- port among pensioners is significant and may be attributable to increased financial pressure on the elderly as a result of the rising cost of living, which has outstripped improvements in the pension cheque. Among voters aged between 16 and 35, the PL enjoys a 13-point advantage over the PN. On a geographical basis, the PL beats the PN in three regions, while the Oppo- sition is ahead in the other three. The PL enjoys absolute majorities in the Southern Harbour (63.1%) and the South-Eastern (53.5%) regions, and a rel- ative majority of 48.5% in Gozo. The PN enjoys relative majorities in the Northern Harbour (45.6%), the Northern (37.4%) and Western (36.9%) regions. Shift to PN The survey shows that the PL's reten- tion rate from the last general election stands at 83.8%, while that of the PN stands at 74.8%. The retention rate shows how many of those who voted for the re- spective parties in the 2017 election will do so again. But for the first time in many months, the survey shows that there are more La- bour voters shifting to the PN than there are PN voters shifting to the PL. While 1.4% of 2017 PN voters now say, they will vote Labour, 3% of PL voters say they will support the Nationalists. PN cuts gap by 10,000