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MALTATODAY SURVEY 9 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 27 FEBRUARY 2022 N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 43.3% 28.6% 20.0% 8.1% 56.4% 14.1% 27.6% 53.2% 25.4% 19.8% 32.9% 41.9% 22.2% Which political party would you vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow? Overall PL 2017 PN 2017 Did not Vote 2017 New Voter Male Female 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 36.2% 30.5% 19.1% 9.4% 72.7% 14.4% 7.3% 71.5% 15.2% 6.8% 14.3% 40.0% 29.1% 20.7% 10.5% 35.4% 11.0% 37.8% 31.5% 16.3% 11.0% 34.8% 29.6% 21.8% 7.9% 30.2% 28.2% 21.8% 11.8% 30.1% 28.2% 22.4% 16.9% 42.3% 29.3% 16.8% 6.2% 43.8% 36.4% 14.9% 53.1% 28.2% 16.4% 45.7% 27.5% 11.5% 10.2% 33.0% 24.6% 27.0% 10.7% 19.2% 38.4% 26.0% 11.0% 27.3% 32.8% 29.9% 21.6% 38.9% 22.7% 10.8% 35.2% 31.1% 20.2% 9.3% 51.3% 16.4% 14.1% 15.0% 52.9% 27.5% 6.2% 9.2% 26.1% 40.1% 18.4% 10.8% PL PN ADPD Small parties Do not know Will not Vote -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 15-Mar-20 12-Apr-20 24-May-20 21-Jun-20 19-Jul-20 6-Sep-20 11-Oct-20 9-Nov-20 6-Dec-20 9-Jan-21 7-Feb-21 7-Mar-21 11-Apr-21 9-May-21 6-Jun-21 11-Jul-21 5-Sep-21 10-Oct-21 7-Nov-21 5-Dec-21 16-Jan-22 6-Feb-22 27-Feb-22 46.0% 49.1% 51.9% 47.8% 45.1% 40.3% 44.2% 39.2% 41.8% 44.8% 43.9% 43.3% 44.1% 36.2% 23.3% 23.5% 30.0% 30.3% 33.6% 32.6% 35.6% 29.3% 32.4% 27.3% 31.9% 28.6% 30.5% 1.0% 0.6% 1.1% 1.2% 0.8% 0 0 0 1.1% 0.4% 0.6% 14.1% 14.5% 6.6% 13.9% 9.2% 11.7% 9.9% 17.3% 13.9% 19.1% 18.4% 7.2% 10.3% 18.2% 20.3% 13.8% 8.1% 12.4% 10.4% 9.4% PL PN ADPD Small Parties Far-right Don't know Not Voting Historical voting polls KURT SANSONE AN election held now will see the La- bour Party winning with 52.5% and an advantage of almost 23,000 votes over the Nationalist Party, MaltaToday's first survey for the election shows. The PN's support stands at 44.9%, while that for the small parties collec- tively stands at 2.6%. The share of valid votes cast (not turn out) is expected to be 84%, a considerable drop from the 90.9% it was in the last general election. MaltaToday's first survey of the elec- toral campaign shows Labour suffering from higher voter abstention within its ranks, when compared to the February survey. Additionally, Robert Abela loses three points on the trust barometer but re- mains 13 points ahead of Bernard Grech. The survey was held between 21 and 26 February, in the first week of the elec- toral campaign marked by candidate desertions from the PN, generous tax proposals from the PL, a government U-turn on the Marsaskala marina, the PN manifesto and outbreak of war in Ukraine. The PL enjoys an advantage of 22,645 votes over the PN, a gap that is 12,635 votes less than what it was in the 2017 general election. The PL's vote share is 2.5 points less than the 2017 election. The PN's share of the vote is 1.2 points higher than what it was in the last gen- eral election, benefitting little from the apparent discontent with the PL. The extrapolated results are derived by excluding non-voters but re-assigning unsure voters to the parties they voted for in the last general election. Voter abstention hits Labour The numbers suggest that over the past month the PL has suffered from higher voter abstention – voters telling us they will not vote – and voters shift- ing to third parties. There are 7.3% of 2017 PL voters who now say they will not vote, up from 5.1% in the February survey. Additionally, 1.6% of PL voters now say they will vote for third parties, an increase from the 0.9% last month. While the PL loses 3.5% of its 2017 voters to the PN, this shift is neutralised by an opposite movement of 5.1% of PN voters in 2017, who now say they will vote Labour. The PN sees a slight drop in 2017 vot- ers within its ranks who will not vote. The survey shows that 6.8% of 2017 PN voters will not vote, down from 7.5% in February. Additionally, the PN witness- es fewer voters shifting to third parties – 0.4% now as opposed to 1.9% in Feb- ruary. But the Opposition party is still losing more voters to the PL than it gains from its rival, leaving it in a static position. New voters are twice more likely to vote PL than PN (20.7% vs 10.5%) but the bulk (35.4%) say they are unsure who to vote for. Regions evenly split The survey's raw result shows the PL ahead of the PN among men and wom- en, across all age groups and in three of the six regions. However, numbers within each of these subsets have to be interpreted with caution since margins of error are much higher than for the overall result. Among young voters aged between 16 and 35, the PL scores 30.2% against the PN's 28.2%. The numbers show the PN gaining ground in this age group when compared to the February survey. The tide has turned back towards the PL among pensioners with the party registering 43.8% of support against the PN's 36.4%. In February, the 65+ voter category was the only one in which sup- port for the PN eclipsed that for the PL. On a geographical basis, the regions are evenly split, although the PL is the only party to register absolute majorities in two of the three regions it wins. The PL is ahead in the Northern Har- bour, the South East and Southern Har- bour. It loses Gozo for the first time in many months as the share of undecided voters in Gozo hits 29.9%. The PN is ahead in Gozo with 32.8% and also beats Labour in the Northern and Western regions. PL hit by voter abstention as lead cut to 23,000 votes MaltaToday's first survey of the electoral campaign shows Labour suffering from higher voter abstention within its ranks, when compared to the 6 February survey