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10 INTERNATIONAL NEWS 3.3.2022 A spate of cyber attacks has affected Ukraine's digital systems since Russia's invasion began. It soon became clear Russia's "boots on the ground" approach would be supplemented by a parallel cy- ber offensive. Last week Ukraine called on its citi- zens to take to their keyboards and de- fend the country against Russia's cyber threat. At the same time, a campaign was underway among the hacktivist col- lective Anonymous, calling on its global army of cyber warriors to target Russia. Who is Anonymous? Anonymous is a global activist com- munity that has been operating since at least 2008. It brings a potential for sig- nificant cyber disruption in the context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. e group has previously claimed responsibility for acts of hacktivism against a wide range of targets, includ- ing against big businesses and govern- ments. Anonymous's activities are often aligned to major events, and the group claims to have an "anti-oppression" agenda. e collective has no defined structure or leadership. Acts are simply undertak- en under the banner "Anonymous", with some reports of limited rules of engage- ment being used to guide actions (al- though these are likely fluid). As Anonymous is a movement, with no formal legal status or assets, respon- sibility for actions shifts to individuals. But there remains a fundamental issue of attribution in cyber security inci- dents, wherein it's difficult to determine a specific source for any attack. What are they threatening to do? On 16 February, Anonymous TV post- ed a video message with a series of rec- ommendations and threats. Leaning on the stereotypical "hacker" image, the masked speaker issues a serious warn- ing to Russia: If tensions continue to worsen in Ukraine, then we can take hostage […] industrial control systems. Sole party to be blamed if we escalate on that will be the same one who started it in the very first place with troop buildups, childish threats and waves of unreasonable ulti- matums. Several Russian government websites and media outlets have since been tar- geted, with Anonymous taking credit on its Twitter channel. e attacks have leveraged the same distributed denial of service techniques used in many previous cyber attacks, including attacks on Ukrainian bank- ing and government websites. In such attacks, the attacker knocks targeted websites offline by flooding them with bot traffic. Further incidents have included the theft and publication of Russian De- partment of Defence data, which may contain sensitive information useful to fighters in Ukraine. Emails from Bela- rusian weapons manufacturer Tetraedr and data from the Russian Nuclear In- stitute have also reportedly been ac- cessed. It's too early to determine how useful these data may be. Most of the stolen informIt's hard to be certain that Anon- ymous did carry out the cyberattacks for which it has claimed responsibility. e movement is founded on anonym- ity, and there are no viable means of verification. But the tactics, targets, and theatrics on show are consistent with previous attacks claimed by the group. Also, even if some attacks are not a direct consequence of Anonymous's ac- tions, one could argue this doesn't really matter. Anonymous is all about being perceived as having an impact. Will it make a difference? It's unlikely the cyberattacks claimed by Anonymous will have a significant impact on Russia's intent or military tactics. at said, these actions could provide key intelligence about specific tactics Russia is using, which would be valuable to the Ukrainians and their al- lies. A further benefit is that the impact of the invasion on Ukrainian people is get- ting more publicity – especially within Russia, where news is significantly cen- sored. is could help counter Russia's do- mestic propaganda machine, and pres- ent a more balanced view of events. Cyber attacks will likely continue to escalate on both sides, involving both state and non-state actors. Russia's Na- tional Computer Incident Response and Coordination Center has raised its threat level to "critical", indicating con- cerns about Russian infrastructure be- ing targeted through cyber attacks. Citizen hackers Alongside Anonymous, large numbers of Ukrainian cyber professionals have volunteered to assist with Ukraine's cy- ber defense. e volunteers are being organized through Telegram channels and other encrypted apps. eir goals include defending Ukraine's critical infrastructure, helping the government with cyber espionage, taking down Russian disinformation from the web, and targeting Russian infrastructure, banks, and government websites. But despite reports of some 175,000 joining the cyber army's Telegram chan- nel, its impact so far remains unclear. Anonymous called on its global hacker army to attack Russia — do they stand a chance? Can Anonymous defend Ukraine's critical infrastructure and help with cyber espionage? ON 25 February, the day after the in- vasion of Ukraine, European countries and the US gave Russia approximately $700 million for natural gas. Include oil exports, and the number goes above $1 billion every day, making fossil fuels the most important source of income for president Vladimir Pu- tin's war efforts. In the days since the invasion, those exports have only become more lucra- tive as oil and gas prices skyrocket and deliveries continue to flow unabated. Russia's foes have few viable alterna- tives for fuel and will invariably suf- fer crippling price spikes if Russian supplies are cut off. Western govern- ments haven't yet imposed sanctions directly on Russia's energy sector, but on March 2 the White House spokes- person said they are "very much on the table." But even without formal sanctions, a growing number of Russia's business partners and customers are turning their backs and voluntarily shutting Russian fossil fuels out of the market. Middle Eastern oil producers are like- ly to benefit. "The current realistic scenario is that a large portion of Russian crude oil, as well as refined oil products, will no longer be palpable to the mar- ket and create a supply deficit for the duration of the armed conflict," says Louise Dickson, senior oil analyst at the intelligence firm Rystad Energy. "The country's incursion into Ukraine has now made it one of the most toxic barrels on the market." Russian oil is selling at a record discount This week several multinational oil and gas companies, including BP, Shell, Equinor, and Exxon, backed out of multibillion-dollar stakes in Rus- sian state-owned drilling companies. Several European and US oil refin- ers also said they will no longer pur- chase Russian crude. That's in spite of the fact that Urals, the main Russian oil benchmark, is trading at a record discount of more than $14 below the Brent international benchmark. This is likely a business judgment rather than a moral one. Western companies don't want to risk running afoul of the law while new sanctions are still being rolled out and, as fight- ing around Kyiv intensifies, could eventually target the energy sector directly. While none of these changes have had a large impact on the volume of oil coming from Russia so far, exports to the US and Europe could dry up quickly once sales contracts that pre- date the war begin to run out in the coming weeks. OPEC and refineries in Asia stand to benefit The closest match for Russian crude oil is from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, Dick- son says, and European refineries will look to them first. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet March 2 to decide whether to increase its production quota more than it previously planned, but offi- cials there told Reuters they expect the group will hold steady. The other beneficiary, Dickson said, will be refineries in Asia, which may be less scrupulous than their Europe- an peers and "will have the opportuni- ty to snap up barrels and capitalize on the strong discount," she said. As Russian oil turns toxic, Saudi Arabia could see a windfall