Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1457526
maltatoday | SUNDAY • 6 MARCH 2022 10 NEWS ELECTION 2022 TURN the clock back to May 2017, particularly to Joseph Muscat's fiery speech on Work- ers' Day when he called the elec- tion in the wake of the Egrant allegations, saying he would not allow "uncertainty to slow the rhythm of Malta's economic miracle." Malta was in mid-coitus, gasping for breath in the wake of two enormous social revo- lutions – one in civil liberties which emancipated thousands of previously invisible citizens, and another with its over-de- velopment model, which turned many in to "little rich people" as towns and villages were bru- tally disfigured. Despite being thrashed in 2013, Panamagate gave the PN the illusion that it could magically win back the people's trust, with its anti-cor- ruption battlecry short-circuit- ing its identity problem to give the impression it could restore the good old times. In the end Muscat triumphed in a charged election which he called a year ahead of time to ab- solve himself from an unfound- ed allegation, Egrant, which had obscured the stark reality of the Panama companies owned by his close allies. It was only after the election that revelations on 17 Black, Panama and Vitals and ultimate- ly the assassination of Daphne Caruana Galizia exposed the rot that led to Muscat's resignation and his replacement by Robert Abela, a political acrobat walk- ing on a tight rope between con- tinuity and change. Five years on, the country is still struggling with Muscat's contradictory legacy but the cli- mate is decidedly different and the election a less do-or-die af- fair. So what are the main differ- ences so far? A foregone conclusion and questions about the super-majority With polls showing a wide ad- vantage for Labour, the result is a forgone conclusion with the only doubt being on whether Labour would retain its 2017 su- per-majority. While polls also indicated a comfortable win for Labour in 2017, the drama of the election and expectations of a big reveal related to Egrant kept Nation- alists hopeful till the last day, as did the party's ability to fire up supporters with its anti-cor- ruption battlecry. This 'make believe' ultimately backfired in the bitter disappointment after the election, but kept the party united behind Simon Busuttil all through the campaign. The question now is not on whether Labour will win but by how much. This risks demor- alising the PN, making it more vulnerable to defections and in- ternal strife as seen in the first days of the campaign. And more of its pale blue voters could stay at home or vote for a third party or an independent like Arnold Cassola, but it also could make some pale red voters, especially those irked by local issues, com- placent. With the PN resigned to de- feat, Grech could be under less pressure to deliver a miracle and focus more on regenerating his frontbench and proposals to ad- dress popular concerns. Robert Abela's bid for a strong mandate, similar to that of his predecessor, is keeping him on his toes and more vulnerable (and receptive) to the concerns of local communities, taken for-granted in 2017 Abela is defying history by as- piring for a super majority for a party which has already served two terms in power in a coun- try which has seen parties either losing steam after a decade in power, like Labour did in 1981 when it lost its vote majority; and the PN in 1996 when it lost, and in 2008 which it won by a whisker. But by replacing Muscat and pushing his own team, Abe- la is still in position to reverse this trend. By securing his own mandate Abela will be shedding the one he inherited from Mus- cat, possibly gaining enough strength to cleanse his party from the ugly side of his prede- cessor's legacy. But crucially, the prospect of a sure win, instead of making Ab- ela complacent, is making him more receptive and vulnerable to pressure from local commu- nities like those resisting a yacht marina in Marsaskala or council offices in a Marsaxlokk school garden. For Abela, every vote still counts as it also did in 2017 when Muscat used the power of incumbency to issue more plan- ning permits and dish out jobs and promotions. But the context has changed. Muscat banked on the feelgood While the 2017 election was a toxic referendum on Joseph Muscat which brought the country to the brink, this election is turning out to be a 'boring' contest with a forgone conclusion with one silver lining: faced with abstention in their own ranks, parties are responding to demands by civil society Echoes of 2017 From total war to a normal election? JAMES DEBONO