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14 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 9 MARCH 2022 NEWS UKRAINE CONFLICT THE Ides of March is approaching. It's the day the dictator Julius Caesar fell – stabbed to death in the Roman Senate. Now speculation is rising that President Vladimir Putin may share his fate. Unsubstantiated rumours abound. Notice the extreme distance between him and his leading general, Sergey Shoygu? What about the way he openly bullied his spy chief on national television? And all those dodgy billionaires can't be happy at losing their luxury yachts, inter- national holiday homes and prestigious schooling for their children. Then there are the street protests. And thousands of arrests. Surely that bodes poorly for Putin's grip on power? "The grievances that have motivated coups elsewhere are present in Russia: bat- tlefield setbacks, low morale, economic ca- tastrophe, disgruntled elites harmed by Pu- tin's actions," says University of Michigan expert on authoritarianism Adam Casey. "But Putin has been preparing for the risks posed by a palace or military coup for dec- ades. The Russian coercive apparatus has multiple mechanisms to prevent a coup." And accounts of Russians' unwillingness to back the invasion of Ukraine may be overblown. A poll of Russian citizens conducted on February 28 by research group Russian Field and political activist Maxim Katz found nearly 60 per cent support the war. So how real is the prospect of a "palace coup" within the Kremlin? Is it wishful thinking? Or is a potential "Brutus" waiting in the wings? "A palace coup against Putin is about as likely as a palace coup against Xi Jinping. Then again, I didn't think Putin would in- vade," says Flinders University lecturer in international relations Dr Michael Sullivan. Or can Putin find an "off-ramp" before things spiral out of control? "Negotiations only succeed when the protagonists are willing and able to make peace," Council on Foreign Relations presi- dent Richard Haas says. "Putin is able. I see zero will. That would have to change. How could it change? Increasing costs on the battlefield or … something happens back home." Rotten to the core The more immediate threat to Putin's rule, says Haas, are the members of his in- ner circle – those forced to sit at the end of the 6m-long white table. "Some of them may decide he's out of control, that what Putin is going to do will so discredit all of us," he says. "One has to hope the people with a degree of proximity and access to Putin are beginning to think this way." But in this modern era of all-pervasive surveillance, building an alliance would be difficult. "So it's risky. It's always risky that you're going to be found out," says Haas. "But one hopes this combination of Ukrainian resist- ance, economic sanctions, the threat of war crimes, popular dissatisfaction … one has to hope this builds some real pressure on the home front. "We're not there yet. But I'm hoping we get there." The signs of stress are there to be seen. "We saw the televised Security Council meeting at which Putin was ostensibly there to get briefings from the most powerful of- ficials in his country. And yet he bullied them," Royal United Services Institute (RU- SI) Russia analyst Dr Mark Galeotti says. "He browbeat them. I never thought I would feel sorry for Sergey Naryshkin, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, but he really was openly bullied." Are bruised inner-sanctum egos enough? Are his billionaires hurting enough? Dr Sullivan says too many of them remain untargeted. "I fear they all have enough mansions, superyachts and cryptocurrency to stay ahead of seizures," he adds. "Why not supercharge The Magnitsky Act and turn it into a hypersonic weapon?" he asks. "The reason is that on a cost-ben- efit analysis the costs to us outweigh any benefits to Ukraine." "Of course it's a miserable time to be an ordinary Russian, which I think is a prob- lematic thing," says Dr Galeotti. "There's always a sort of strategy where you squeeze ordinary Russians to the point where they topple Putin." The peasants are revolting "This was his war. This was not Russia's war," says Haas. "This was Putin's war of choice. He didn't have to go in. He certainly didn't have to go in when he did. He cer- tainly doesn't have to be following up the way he is." And national moods can shift fast. "I don't think Putin's done a terribly effec- tive job of selling the necessity of this war," he adds. "I don't know how people will react to images of Russian soldiers coming back as casualties. But we're seeing a beginning. The Russians are clearly unhappy. Thou- sands have been arrested. But will it get to the point of critical mass? I don't know. It's still early days." This is where the swiftness and severity of international sanctions come into play. Prices are exploding as the ruble collapses. Shortages of basics are imminent. Then there's the hopes and aspirations of younger generations. The Russian Field poll revealed that sup- port for the war was about 40 per cent among those aged 18-29. "This is an increasingly authoritarian and spitefully intolerant regime," says Dr Gale- otti. "It takes a lot of guts to actually stand up against it, knowing that your liberty, your livelihood, are both on the line and maybe your kneecaps as well." But that's just the start. It then becomes a contest of resolve. "People Power only ever works when the security forces are divided, demoralised and so forth. We can go back to Lenin, who said revolutions succeed when the elite has a critical absence of will. But at the moment, unfortunately, the elite – the men with the guns, the men with the rubber truncheons – still seem willing to obey their orders." The power of one Putin has had almost a quarter-century to build Russia in his image. The former KGB agent is well aware of the dangers dic- tators face. This is why he has long since surrounded himself with those he controls, be it through personal charisma or indirect coercion. But he's also built up a personal "praeto- rian guard". According to Casey, the Federal Protective Service (FSO) was built out of the KGB's old 9th Directorate – a body responsible for the personal protection of Russia's leadership. He's also got a personal army on call. The National Guard (Rosgvardia) provides Rus- sia's internal security. It is separate from the military. But it is a highly co-ordinated group designed to suppress mass protest or revolt. "By removing the possible use of the regu- lar army for repression at home, Rosgvardia does help reduce some of the motivations for coups," says Casey. "In comparative per- spective, we know militaries really dislike being used for domestic repression". Then there's the Federal Security Service (FSB). "The FSB is not only large, with its own security troops, but it has one key mechanism to prevent a military coup in Russia: the military counterintelligence department". It monitors the behaviour of military personnel and officers. "In short, there are a lot of mechanisms to prevent a coup in Russia. Yet in other ways, Russia also doesn't have a typically 'coup- proofed' military." While they are subject to Putin's rule, the army, navy and air force have been largely insulated from government. Military lead- ers don't sit in the Kremlin's halls of power. "(Putin's) nephew doesn't run the 1st ar- moured division in Moscow or anything like that," says Casey. "It has a professional officer corps." It may prove to be Putin's weakest link. And that may be why rumours are circu- lating about a potential collapse in the rela- tionship between him and his long-serving military chief, General Sergey Shoygu. After all, he carries the blame for not giv- ing Putin the quick victory he expected. Special government adjustment The future is in Putin's hands. It may not be what he planned for. "In war it is impossible to know what is going on or how trends are going to pan out," says Dr Sullivan. But it hasn't gone well for the Russian in- vaders. "The fact that the Russians are escalat- ing with these terrible conventional mass casualty munitions. And by introducing far more troops tells you that, that essentially what Putin is doing is doubling down," says Haas. He's also doubling down at home. Pro- testers are being arrested. New laws punish opposing his will with 15 years' imprison- ment. International links through social media and the internet are being severed. Independent media has been shut down. "I think the most likely scenario for actu- ally ousting Putin is elite defection rather than a coup," says Casey. "It is really hard to co-ordinate a coup even against a hated dic- tator, especially with a security apparatus as extensive as Putin's". Instead, key leaders and influencers may want to avoid "bloody hands". The prospect of using excessive force to save Putin may not seem appealing. They may not want their fate to be tied to his. "Defection is clearly not costless," says Casey. "But in my view, less costly than a failed coup attempt." Putin losing his grip on power is fuelling rumours of a coup Vladimir Putin has had almost a quarter-century to build Russia in his image