Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1458198
9 NEWS ANALYSIS maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 9 MARCH 2022 It is unclear whether the crisis would make the EU more amena- ble to Malta's bid for EU funding for a pipeline, as this would sim- ply connect Malta to the conti- nental infrastructure, which to a large extent depends on Russian imports. In the long term the cri- sis may boost investment in re- newable sources although coun- tries may be increasingly tempted by take short cuts like nuclear en- ergy and grey hydrogen. Moreover if Vladimir Putin further affirms his authority on former Soviet republics, Azer- baijan's stake in Malta's energy sector could raise concern. Just two days before Russia launched a massive invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin signed a wide-ranging agreement with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Il- ham Aliyev, deepening their diplomatic and military coopera- tion. Crucially the two countries agreed to "refrain from carrying out any economic activity that causes direct or indirect damage to the interests of the other Par- ty." In the General Assembly's vote on Ukraine, Azerbaijan was one of 12 countries that did not even turn up for the vote. China's stake in the other power station could also expose Malta to further trou- ble, if the Asiatic power starts flexing its muscles over Taiwan. Just as Solidarnosch inspired the PN in 1980s, solidarity with the Ukraine may inspire a new generation of activists facing Malta's own version of oligarchy and crony capitalism. Historically the PN always took pride in its mission to an- chor Malta in the European Un- ion, despite strong opposition from the Labour party and its allies before the 2003 referen- dum. Even in the 1980s the PN strongly identified with the Pol- ish trade union movement that resisted the Stalinist regime and the wave of protests which top- pled the Marcos dictatorship in the Philippines. Roberta Metsola's key role as European Parliament president in setting the tone of the Eu- ropean moral response to the current crisis, and her support for Ukraine's bid to join the EU, inevitably turns her into a refer- ence point for those aspiring for a more vocal Malta in the interna- tional stage. And while Labour has taken a firm line against Russian ag- gression and now prides itself on making Malta the best in Eu- rope, constant scrutiny on rule of law issues by EU institutions following the assassination of Daphne Caruana Galizia, has to some extent turned the party in- to an international pariah. The crisis could reinforce the need for strong leaders like Abela, but younger and more educated vot- ers may aspire to a more conti- nental style of leadership. Some of these may recoil at the prox- imity of Labour to Malta's own oligarchs and its flirtation with wealth and big business, which is vaguely reminiscent of the crony capitalism characterising the Putin regime amongst others. And while any comparison be- tween Malta and Putin's Russia is absurd, educated Maltese vot- ers may become even more sen- sitive to media manipulations on partisan TV stations which are reminiscent of Russia Today, and more averse to personality cults which attribute super hu- man qualities to imperfect lead- ers. In this sense activists protest- ing against Labour's excesses, may get a new impetus in their quest for more democratic safe- guards. This generational shift may also be reflected in the La- bour party as it anchors itself in progressive European politics. Both parties have avoided any major debate on foreign policy even if at some stage a debate on Malta's positioning in the world looks imminent A survey conducted before the crisis showed that two thirds of the Maltese support the coun- try's constitutional neutrality, which has actually served the country well. But the same survey also shows that support for neutrality is conditioned by a widespread misconception that neutrality excludes "taking sides". One risk of the current crisis is that Russian aggression will drive presently neutral EU mem- ber states like Finland and Swe- den in to the embrace of NATO leaving Malta more isolated. But Malta's model could also serve as a model for countries like Ukraine, Georgia or Moldova, in their bid to join the EU without necessarily joining NATO. Moreover the current crisis is bound to strengthen calls for a European army. So far the crisis has not elicited a discussion on the significance of Malta's ac- tive neutrality in the new reality around us. All this is happening in a context where US pressure on Malta to sign up to a SOFA agreement could grow especially in view of the FATF grey which gives the US leverage. Curiously so far, apart from the obvious platitudes, both parties have so far been mum on wheth- er they support Ukraine's bid to join the EU or not. The risk is that in the absence of a national foreign policy debate, decisions will be taken on the basis of con- tingency and convenience rather then on the basis of sound prin- ciples and long-term vision.