Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1459407
11 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 13 MARCH 2022 MALTATODAY SURVEY KURT SANSONE THE Labour Party leads at the polls with an eight-point gap over the Na- tionalist Party, a one-point decline over seven days, MaltaToday's rolling survey shows. At the end of the third week of the electoral campaign the PL registers 53.2% support and the PN 44.8%. Third parties collectively have 2% support. The extrapolated result puts the gap between the two major parties at 25,996 votes, down from 27,265 last Sunday. The gap in the 2017 election stood at 35,000. The results are based on an expect- ed share of valid votes that equates to 86.6% of eligible voters. This repre- sents almost a one-point increase since last Sunday. The expected share of valid votes is not the turn out figure but rather the basis on which an election is deter- mined – valid votes cast. In the 2017 election, the turnout was 92.1% and the share of valid votes cast stood at 90.9%. MaltaToday's rolling survey contin- ues to project a higher abstention rate than the last general election. The past seven days have seen the PN's daily share of the vote plateauing at 44.8%, while the PL's share has expe- rienced more fluctuations around the 53% mark. All changes remain well within the margin of error. Age and region The raw data shows the PL beating the PN across all age groups, among men and women and in three out of the six regions. Among young voters aged between 16 and 35, the PL's support stands at 29.8% and that of the PN's at 25%. Among pensioners, both parties score their best results with the PL enjoy- ing the support of 45% and the PN at 37.7%. For the second Sunday running the geographical data paints a more bal- anced picture than the trust barometer where PN leader Bernard Grech only beats PL leader Robert Abela in one region. The PL wins in Gozo, the South-East- ern and Southern Harbour regions, while the PN captures the Northern, Northern Harbour and the Western regions. Shifts and abstentions The PL loses 3.7% of its 2017 support to the PN, while the Opposition loses 2.9% of its 2017 electoral share to La- bour. These shifts result in a net move- ment of 2,400 votes from the PL to the PN. There are also 5.2% of PL voters who say they will not vote, equivalent to just under 9,000 votes, and 6% of Na- tionalist voters, equivalent to just over 8,000 votes, who are abstaining. Of significance is the cohort of vot- ers who are undecided. In our project- ed result, it is assumed that undecided voters will vote according to their 2017 preference but the PN appears to have more undecided voters within its ranks than Labour. The survey shows that 20.4% of 2017 PN voters, equivalent to almost 27,700 votes, are undecided. The equivalent share of undecided PL voters stands at 14.6% or just under 25,000. It remains to be seen whether unde- cided voters will fall in line with past voting preferences as we are assuming, shift their vote or even stay at home on election day. Among new voters, the share of unde- cided has shot up to 40.8% from 34.4% a week ago. Support for the PL among new voters stands at 23% as opposed to the PN's 19.7%. New voters are excluded from the ex- trapolated result because they do not have a past voting record to base our assumption on. However, it appears that the PL continues to enjoy the edge over its rival among this cohort of vot- ers that includes 16-year-olds. Gap narrows to 26,000 votes, undecided new voters balloon S Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 57.7% 23.4% 16.5% 36.1% 35.1% 22.8% Which political party would you vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow? Overall PL 2017 PN 2017 Didn't vote 2017 New Voter Male Female 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 37.8% 29.8% 21.3% 7.9% 75.0% 14.5% 69.6% 20.4% 10.1% 41.9% 32.3% 23.0% 19.7% 40.7% 5.9% 40.2% 28.6% 19.5% 9.3% 35.5% 30.9% 23.0% 6.6% 29.8% 25.0% 28.5% 10.9% 34.1% 25.0% 25.0% 14.0% 43.1% 31.6% 17.6% 45.0% 37.6% 13.4% 49.6% 30.6% 13.7% 47.2% 26.5% 15.7% 7.7% 35.4% 29.8% 24.5% 8.0% 23.7% 33.2% 29.0% 9.7% 35.8% 28.4% 25.8% 26.3% 34.1% 25.4% 10.3% 32.4% 39.0% 18.0% 8.5% 50.1% 16.1% 22.1% 7.7% 53.3% 23.7% 13.0% 8.5% 29.0% 35.0% 24.5% 8.1% PL PN ADPD Small parties Do not know Will not Vote -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 15-Mar-20 12-Apr-20 24-May-20 21-Jun-20 19-Jul-20 6-Sep-20 11-Oct-20 9-Nov-20 6-Dec-20 9-Jan-21 7-Feb-21 7-Mar-21 11-Apr-21 9-May-21 6-Jun-21 11-Jul-21 5-Sep-21 10-Oct-21 7-Nov-21 5-Dec-21 16-Jan-22 6-Feb-22 27-Feb-22 6-Mar-22 13-Mar-22 46.0% 49.1% 51.9% 47.8% 45.1% 40.3% 44.2% 39.2% 41.8% 44.8% 43.2% 43.5% 36.2% 37.8% 23.3% 23.5% 30.0% 30.3% 33.6% 32.6% 35.6% 29.3% 31.1% 27.3% 31.9% 28.6% 29.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.6% 0 0 0 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 14.1% 14.5% 6.6% 13.9% 9.2% 12.2% 9.9% 17.3% 10.3% 13.9% 19.1% 21.3% 18.4% 7.2% 10.3% 18.2% 20.3% 13.8% 13.3% 8.1% 12.3% 7.9% PL PN ADPD Small Parties Far-right Don't know Not Voting Historical voting polls