Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1462122
11 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 20 MARCH 2022 MALTATODAY SURVEY N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 38.0% 38.7% 18.2% 57.3% 15.8% 22.6% 58.3% 24.9% 14.1% 35.9% 35.5% 22.1% 6.6% Which political party would you vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow? Overall PL 2017 PN 2017 Didn't vote 2017 New Voter Male Female 16-35 36-50 51-65 65+ Primary Secondary Post-Sec Tertiary Gozo Northern N Harbour S Eastern S Harbour Western 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 38.0% 30.3% 20.5% 7.9% 74.9% 14.7% 71.3% 18.6% 9.5% 39.9% 35.8% 22.3% 20.9% 40.3% 5.5% 39.9% 29.9% 17.8% 9.6% 36.3% 30.8% 22.9% 6.3% 28.6% 26.1% 28.6% 10.9% 35.4% 25.4% 24.0% 13.4% 43.1% 32.4% 15.6% 6.2% 46.0% 37.6% 12.7% 51.4% 29.7% 13.8% 47.6% 26.9% 15.0% 7.7% 35.8% 31.4% 21.8% 9.0% 22.7% 34.0% 29.0% 9.7% 37.4% 28.9% 22.3% 28.1% 35.4% 24.6% 7.8% 31.5% 39.2% 18.7% 8.4% 52.3% 15.6% 20.1% 8.8% 53.4% 24.1% 13.0% 7.7% 30.3% 36.7% 22.0% 7.9% PL PN ADPD Small parties Do not know Will not Vote -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 15-Mar-20 12-Apr-20 24-May-20 21-Jun-20 19-Jul-20 6-Sep-20 11-Oct-20 9-Nov-20 6-Dec-20 9-Jan-21 7-Feb-21 7-Mar-21 11-Apr-21 9-May-21 6-Jun-21 11-Jul-21 5-Sep-21 10-Oct-21 7-Nov-21 5-Dec-21 16-Jan-22 6-Feb-22 27-Feb-22 6-Mar-22 13-Mar-22 20-Mar-22 46.0% 49.1% 51.9% 47.8% 45.1% 40.3% 44.2% 39.2% 41.8% 44.8% 43.2% 43.5% 36.2% 38.0% 23.3% 23.5% 30.0% 30.3% 33.6% 32.6% 35.6% 29.3% 31.1% 27.3% 31.9% 28.6% 32.4% 30.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0 0 0 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 14.1% 14.5% 6.6% 13.9% 9.2% 13.5% 9.9% 17.3% 13.9% 19.1% 20.5% 18.4% 7.2% 10.3% 18.2% 20.3% 13.8% 13.3% 8.1% 12.3% 10.4% 7.9% PL PN ADPD Small Parties Far-right Don't know Not Voting Historical voting polls The survey is the cumulative data set carried out between Monday 21 February 2022 and Friday 11 March 2022. 1,811 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, age and gender was used to replicate the Maltese demographic. The estimated margin of error is 2.3% for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall results. Demographic and sub-group breakdowns have significantly larger margins of error. KURT SANSONE THE Labour Party has increased its lead to nine points over the Nationalist Party as the election campaign enters its final week, Malt- aToday's rolling survey shows. The gap between the parties translates into a 29,000-vote advantage for the PL in what has been a week of marginal gains for Robert Abela's party. The PL registers 53.7% support, an increase of 0.5 points over last Sunday, and the PN 44.3%, a decline of 0.4 points. Third parties collectively continue to hover on the 2% mark. The extrapolated result puts the gap be- tween the two major parties at 29,003 votes, up from 25,996 last Sunday. The gap in the 2017 election stood at 35,000. The results are based on an expected share of valid votes that equates to 86.9% of eligi- ble voters. This represents an increase of 0.3 points since last Sunday. The expected share of valid votes is not the turn out figure but rather the basis on which an election is determined – valid votes cast. In the 2017 election, the turnout was 92.1% and the share of valid votes cast stood at 90.9%. MaltaToday's rolling survey continues to project a higher abstention rate than the last general election but it appears that efforts to bring out the vote are leaving their mark. The expected share of valid votes has gone from 84% in the first survey released on Sun- day 27 February, to 86.9% today. The past seven days have seen the PN's daily share of the vote rise to 45.1%, only to start declining mid-week. The PL shed votes at the start of the week but started recovering since Wednesday. The week was characterised by the leaders' debate at the Chamber of Commerce in Val- letta on Wednesday, the PN's inability to ex- plain the impact of its trackless tram proposal on existing road infrastructure, and Robert Abela having to deny any involvement in the sanctioning of a Żejtun villa. However, all changes remained well within the margin of error. Age and region The raw data shows the PL beating the PN across all age groups, among men and women and in three out of the six regions. Among young voters aged between 16 and 35, the PL's support stands at 28.7% and that of the PN's at 26.1%. The gap between the parties in this age group has narrowed further over the past seven days but 28.6% of young voters remain undecided. Among pensioners, both parties score their best results with the PL enjoying the support of 46.1% and the PN at 37.6%. On a geographical basis, none of the regions have changed allegiance over the past seven days. The PL wins in Gozo, the South-Eastern and Southern Harbour regions, while the PN captures the Northern, Northern Harbour and the Western regions. Shifts and abstentions Both parties lose 3.7% of their respective 2017 voting share to each other, which results in a net movement of 1,306 votes from the PL to the PN. There are also 5.2% of PL voters who say they will not vote, equivalent to just under 9,000 votes, and 5.3% of Nationalist voters, equivalent to just over 7,000 votes, who are abstaining. In our projected result, undecided voters are assumed to vote according to their 2017 pref- erence but the PN continues to have more unsure voters within its ranks than Labour. The survey shows that 18.6% of 2017 PN voters, equivalent to just over 25,000 votes, are undecided. This is almost a two-point de- cline over last Sunday's findings. The equivalent share of undecided PL voters has remained the same at 14.7% or just over 25,000. It remains to be seen whether undecided voters will fall in line with past voting prefer- ences as we are assuming, shift their vote or even stay at home on election day. Among new voters, the share of undecided has remained high at 40.3% as the electoral campaign enters its final week. Undecided new voters are excluded from the extrapolat- ed result since we have no past benchmark to base our assumption on. Support for the PL among new voters stands at 22.3% as opposed to the PN's 20.9%. The difference has narrowed slightly since last Sunday. Labour enters last lap with 29,000- vote advantage over PN