Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1462138
8 NEWS maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 21 MARCH 2022 THE stay at home protest vote in 2022 may yet be a stronger factor political parties will have to contend with in the years ahead. Voting is not compulsory in Malta and yet it remains the democratic country with the highest general election turn- outs. Maltese love voting but the turnout at elections has been nudging down over the past two decades and surveys sug- gest the 2022 election will be no different. The largest drop was wit- nessed between the 2003 and 2008 general elections, and even here, the difference in turnout was a mere 2.4 points. In the hotly contested 2003 election, which determined the issue of EU membership, 95.7% of eligible voters cast their vote. Five years later, this dropped to 93.3%. In 2013, the turnout remained relatively stable at 93% but in 2017, this dropped to 92.1%, es- tablishing a new record low for Malta since 1971. Yet, the election on 26 March is likely to produce a new re- cord. MaltaToday's rolling sur- vey projected that the share of valid votes cast would be 86.9% as of Friday. This works out at a turnout of around 88.1%, a full four points less than the last election. Valid votes cast are the basis on which an election is deter- mined since invalid votes are ignored. In 2017, while 92.1% of eligi- ble voters went out to vote, only 90.9% of eligible voters cast a valid vote. The share of invalid votes since 2003 has averaged at around 1.2 points. If this is replicated, the survey numbers suggest that in 2022 the turnout would be in the region of 88%. The MaltaToday survey has shown an improvement in the turnout figure since the start of the electoral campaign, sug- gesting that the political par- ties' get-out-the-vote efforts are reaping some results. On 27 February, the MaltaTo- day survey projected the share of valid votes at 84% (estimat- ed turnout of 85.2%), rising to 86.9% (turnout of 88.1%) four weeks later. However, the numbers still suggest a lower turnout than five years ago and the first sign of what we could expect came on Saturday when early voting was possible for those who can- not vote on 26 March. According to the Electoral Commission, from 9,658 voters eligible to vote early, 8,224 cast their vote on Saturday. This equates to 85.2%, almost six points less than five years ago when the turnout for early vot- ers stood at 91%. Another determining factor will be the amount of uncollect- ed voting documents after the midnight deadline on Thursday expires. Eligible voters need their vot- ing document to exercise their right to vote and from today until Thursday these can only picked up in person from the Naxxar counting hall and the Electoral Commission's office in Victoria. Undoubtedly, the political parties will be upping their ef- forts over the next four days to convince people to go and pick up their voting document. But even if they are successful, there is no guarantee that reluc- tant voters will actually head to the polling booths on Saturday. The stay at home protest vote Could 2022 election deliver a historic low turnout? Kurt Sansone crunches the numbers The stay at home vote 2022** 88.1% 86.9% 2017 92.1% 91.7% 2013 93% 91.7% 2008 93.3% 92.2% 2003 95.7% 94.7% Election Turnout* Valid Votes* * Both turnout and valid votes are worked as a ratio of eligible voters ** Projected according to MaltaToday rolling survey data from Friday Top 10 election turnouts in Europe Malta 92.1% Luxembourg 89.7% Belgium 88.4% Sweden 87.2% Denmark 84.6% Iceland 80.1% Netherlands 78.7% Liechtenstein 78% Belarus 77.3% Norway 77.2% Country Turnout in last parliamentary election Source: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance Countries in bold have compulsory voting KURT SANSONE AROUND 21,500 voting documents re- mained uncollected or undelivered by Sunday noon when collection in the re- spective localities came to an end. This equates to around 6.1 % of all eligi- ble voters, which represents at 2.5-point increase over the same figure five years ago. This could represent another indication of what many expect to be a lower turnout in Saturday's election. It comes 24 hours after the turnout figure for early voters on Saturday hit 85%, which represents a six- point decline over the early voter turnout from 2017. From Monday, anybody wanting to pick up their voting document will have to do so from the counting hall in Naxxar or the Electoral Commission's office in Victoria, Gozo. Voting documents can be picked up between Monday and Wednesday be- tween 8am and 9pm, and Thursday until midnight. No voting documents can be distributed on Friday and Saturday. Five years ago, at the same juncture, 12,339 voting documents remained un- collected or undelivered, equivalent to 3.6% of eligible voters. The voting document is essential to be able to vote. The first phase saw police of- ficers distribute voting documents door to door and during the second phase people could collect their document from their locality's police station or local council. This last stage is considered to be a big- ger inconvenience since voters will have to travel to Naxxar or Victoria. Both major parties have been emphasis- ing the need for people to pick up their voting document and go out to vote on Saturday 26 March amid growing voter apathy. MaltaToday's rolling survey has project- ed that the ratio of valid votes cast could be 86.9%, which equates to a turnout of around 88%. This would represent a sig- nificant decline from five years ago when the turnout stood at 92.1%. ksansone@mediatoday.com.mt 6.1% of voters have not collected their voting document, a 2.5-point increase on 2017 Voter apathy sees 21,500 voting documents uncollected so far Five years ago, at the same juncture, 12,339 voting documents remained uncollected or undelivered, equivalent to 3.6% of eligible voters