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13 NEWS maltatoday | THURSDAY • 24 MARCH 2022 The third-party vote is also tradition- ally higher than the national average in this particular district. Back in 2013 AD candidates collectively gained 717 votes. Independent candidate Arnold Casso- la may bank on boosting his first count votes by inheriting votes from Bernard Grech's surplus. But that would not be enough if he does not get a substantial amount of first preferences. Also con- testing on behalf of the Greens is former Attard councillor Ralph Cassar. District 12 – The closest race IN 2017, the PN carried this district which includes Mellieha and St Paul's Bay with just 801 votes. Labour now holds a majority in both the St Paul's Bay and Mellieha local councils and may be heading to win a third seat on this stra- tegic district. Moreover the PN will not benefit from the leader effect as it did in 2017 when the district was contested by Simon Busuttil. But while Labour benefitted from de- mographic shifts before 2017, particu- larly due to its social liberalism which resonated with a higher percentage of separated persons renting cheaper apart- ments in this region, the district has also been tested by Labour's economic mod- el, characterised by over development, an increase in the foreign population and unaffordable housing. Disgruntlement in this district could also contribute to a lower voter turnout. On the PN side Robert Cutajar and Claudette Buttigieg are both re-contest- ing, and are joined by Graziella Galea, a former mayor of St Paul's Bay and daughter of a former PN Minister and district heavyweight Censu Galea. On the PL side, veteran MP Evarist Bar- tolo who led the pack in 2017 with 3,066 votes will be seeking a strong affirma- tion in what is probably his last election showing. Despite his Labour pedigree, Bartolo retains an appeal among M.O.R. voters due to his critical stance on Pan- amagate. But his muted internal criti- cism may still backfire on him among hardcore Muscat loyalists. Tourism minister Clayton Bartolo – who has grown in stature as part of Rob- ert Abela's Cabinet after having first rep- resented his party on the Planning Board – could make further inroads in the dis- trict. A strong showing is also expected from Jonathan Attard, who was recently co-opted to parliament by Abela. District 13 – From deep blue to pale red? THE PN's share of the vote in Gozo has declined from 59% in 2003 to 55% in 2008 to 50% in 2013 and 48% in 2017. This represented a decline of 11 points in the space of 20 years. But despite Labour's remarkable ad- vances, it still carried this district with a very small majority in 2017. The big question now is whether Labour will now entrench its dominance in the district by widening the gap and turn the once deep blue district in to a pale red one. This was all the more surprising in a relatively conservative island which vot- ed against the introduction of divorce in 2011 and which is still characterised by strong patronage networks which man- ifest themselves in the misuse of the power of incumbency. In fact, Gozo was one of few districts which reversed the national trend against Labour in 1987 election. While surveys show Labour leading in Gozo by a substantial margin, the dis- trict also has one of the highest rate of "don't knows". In this election Labour may face some disgruntlement over planning policies which are disfiguring Gozitan towns but which have also enriched a number of Gozitan property owners. On Labour's side, the major absence this time round is Justyne Caruana whose 3,189 first count votes are now up for grabs. Veteran Labour MP Anton Refalo and Gozo Minister Clint Camill- eri are still expected to dominate the pack. Xaghra candidate Christian Zam- mit, who had the courage to denounce a permit issued to developer Joe Portelli in Sannat, could also make inroads. On the PN's side the major absence is that of Marthese Portelli who gained 2,622 first count votes in 2017. To make up for this absence the PN is fielding Claudette Buttigieg, whose stature in the party has grown during the past decade. Chris Said, who led the pack in 2017, is likely to keep his dominant position but inroads are expected by new candidates like Alex Borg, who could challenge in- cumbents Joe Ellis and Kevin Cutajar, who were both elected in casual elec- tions. MUSCAT ALEX CAMILLERI CLINT REFALO ANTON BARTOLO EVARIST AGIUS DECELIS TONY FARRUGIA MICHAEL BARTOLO CLAYTON Elected in 2017 on the twelfth district: (Left to right, from top) Michael Farrugia, Evarist Bartolo (PL); Simon Busuttil, Robert Cutajar, Claudette Buttigieg (PN) – Casual election: Clayton Bartolo (PL), David Thake (PN, later resigned) Elected in 2017 on the thirteenth district: (Left to right, from top) Anton Refalo, Clint Camilleri, Justyne Caruana (PL); Chris Said, Marthese Portelli (PN) – Casual election: David Stellini (later resigned), Frederick Azzopardi (passed away), Kevin Cutajar (PN) Elected in 2017 on the eleventh district: (Left to right, from top) Alex Muscat, Anthony Agius Decelis, (PL); Simon Busuttil, David Agius, Edwin Vassallo (PN) – Casual election: Maria Deguara, Ivan Bartolo (PN)

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