Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1462900
6 maltatoday | MONDAY • 28 MARCH 2022 ELECTION 2022 Chronicles of his defeat, foretold The mid-legislature election: after the umpteenth backbench rebellion against Nationalist leader Adrian Delia, Grech emerged as the consensus candidate to take over the party's leadership. It left him with a tall order in the bid by the PN to reduce Labour's super-majority Bernard Grech's mission was to reduce the gap with Labour, crucial to become competitive for 2027. He clearly failed and this should make him reconsider his position as party leader. But Grech insists he wants to stay on. Is he prolonging the party's agony? THAT the party had no chance of winning this elec- tion, in which it started with a 35,000-vote deficit was never in question. But after a decade of Labour in government, the PN was ex- pected to make some inroads. The signs of another Labour landslide were all there, with surveys constantly exposing Grech's Sisyphean predica- ment, possibly demotivating potential PN voters in a coun- try where the electorate tends to rally behind the winning team, and where very few vote tactically to reduce the gap. Reducing the gap was essen- tially the PN's rallying cry in this election, simply because few even considered the pos- sibility of the party actually implementing its manifesto, which although refreshing in some aspect also failed in giv- ing the party a strong identity. And the party's quest to nar- row the gap in itself could have backfired in a country where political parties are largely considered as a means to win government, as the PN itself was perceived before losing power in 2013. Abstention as an alternative By acknowledging the obvi- ous and calling on voters to re- duce the gap, Grech may well have further demotivated a segment of past PN voters who lost hope and stayed at home. Abstention gave disgruntled Labour voters another option to voting PN in their hope of clipping Robert Abela's wings. In the end it may well be that these two segments of voters cancelled each other out to Labour's benefit, providing a parking space for voters: an al- ternative to voting for the PN. Grech thus failed in project- ing himself as an alternative prime minister and in the pro- cess, reduce the gap. To get there he had to sell an illusion that his party could still make it. This was never an easy task for a leader of a party which inherited a 35,000-vote deficit. But by accepting to lead the party in 2020, Grech had taken a commitment which he failed to deliver. As things stand Grech – or any PN leader elected instead of him – is condemned to face the same predicament. Had Grech managed to re- duce the gap, Grech would have paved the way for a pe- riod of consolidation and re- newal. He would have gained the serenity required to re- shape the party into his more inclusive image. Instead, Labour's landslide has remained stronger than ever, and the party is back to square one, in the same spot it was in 2013 and 2017. The im- plications are obvious. Labour has the next election in the bag and once again the PN is faced with an uphill battle to reduce the gap, that elusive first step which is a prerequisite for any recovery. And one major obstacle to this is the toxicity of the PN's brand, something which Grech underestimated whenever he identified with the successes of past PN governments. The poisoned chalice Crucially the result robs the party of any serenity, reopens old factional divides and rais- es the prospect of yet anoth- er brutal leadership election, for the party statute makes it mandatory for the party to hold a leadership contest af- ter an electoral defeat. Grech can recontest, but he will not be doing so from a position of strength. But it remains doubtful whether an alternative candi- date would be willing to drink from the poisoned chalice of leading a demoralised party. Grech could sacrifice himself once again; at least until Rob- erta Metsola is available to take his place. One big advan- tage for Grech is that the party may not be in the mood of a third leadership change in just three yeaars. But the question PN members will be asking is whether Grech has the ability to turn the tide. And they are bound to become impatient, especially because Adrian De- lia himself was removed for his failure to cut the gap in MEP elections. It also raises the prospect of a bloodbath which would fur- ther weaken a party which has yet to resolve its identity prob- lem. For underlying the par- ty's problem is an existential question; what does it stand for in 2022? In the absence of a solid identity which match- es the aspirations of a changed Maltese society, the party is condemned to political irrel- evance. Remaining a big tent party, the PN's tent under which its various factions co-exist keeps shrinking and becoming claus- trophobic. Can these ideolog- ical divisions still be retained under one big tent? And then again... the PN's own factional divides only ob- scure deeper ones rooted in different mindframes. A wasted decade The repeat of 2013 and 2017 raises one crucial question. Has the party wasted a whole decade during which it could have sorted out its mess and found a sense of purpose, which is so essential in moti- vating activists? The roots of the current mess goes back to 2003, when the party's disparate electorate was held together by the EU membership battle-cry. Ever since then, the party failed in mobilising the same coalition of voters. For it is clear that this time around a segment of former PN voters have stayed at home, offsetting any ab- stainers on the Labour side. Bernard Grech concedes in a recorded message broadcast on Net TV