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maltatoday | SUNDAY • 3 APRIL 2022 OPINION 11 Russia's 2020 policy allows for 'defensive' use of nuclear weapons EVEN before the Russian mili- tary machine entered Ukrainian territory on February 24, the po- tential threat of escalation to a nuclear conflict had been raised. In the days before the invasion, Russia conducted a large-scale exercise involving simulated long-range conventional and nuclear strikes in response to a nuclear attack. Then, as his troops poured across the bor- der into Ukraine, Vladimir Putin issued a chilling threat to Nato and the west, saying they would face "consequences greater than any you have faced in history" if they interfered. Just days later, on February 27, the Russian president declared that he had ordered his coun- try's nuclear forces into a state of "special combat readiness". But Russia's threat to escalate to the use of nuclear weapons lacks credibility. While the use of nuclear weapons could wreak terrible destruction in Ukraine, it would not necessarily win the war for Russia. On the other hand, the risk that it could pro- voke a nuclear response from the west is high. New policy In recent years, Russia has re- viewed its policy on the use of its nuclear arsenal. In June 2020, the the Office of the President of the Russian Federation pub- lished an executive order: Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nucle- ar Deterrence. The order has generated considerable debate about whether it is an indication that Russia might be more ready to use nuclear weapons than be- fore. The order noted that Russia considered nuclear weapons "exclusively as a means of deter- rence". Russia's strategy, it said: "…is defensive by nature, it is aimed at maintaining the nucle- ar forces' potential at the level sufficient for nuclear deterrence, and guarantees protection of na- tional sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state, and deter- rence of a potential adversary from aggression against the Rus- sian Federation and/or its allies." But the document does suggest that Russia might escalate to the use of nuclear weaponry if it faces losing a conventional con- flict: "in the event of a military conflict, this policy provides for the prevention of an escalation of military actions and their ter- mination on conditions that are acceptable for the Russian Fed- eration and/or its allies". This has been widely described by US analysts as a policy of "esca- late to deescalate", although this characterisation has been denied by Russian military experts. It is hard to see how this would apply in the case of the current conflict, because Ukraine is de- fending itself against Russian aggression and not – at the mo- ment, in any case – threatening Russia's "national sovereignty" or "territorial integrity". Russia is entirely in control of escala- tion and can end the war at any time. Not only that, but it is hard to see how even a smaller, tac- tical nuclear weapon could be used in the context of Ukraine as there are not big enough con- centrations of Ukrainian troops to make it effective. The contingencies that could result in the use of Russian nu- clear weapons discussed in the document on the Basic Princi- ples of 2020 referred to above include the launch of ballistic missiles "attacking the territory of the Russian Federation and/or its allies" or other uses of weap- ons of mass destruction against Russia and its allies. They also include "attack by adversary against critical gov- ernmental or military sites of the Russian Federation, disruption of which would undermine nu- clear forces' response actions" as well as "aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy". Mixed signals Any nuclear strikes against tar- gets inside Ukraine would also cause major operational prob- lems because Russian forces are on the ground in pretty much every part of Ukraine. A nucle- ar strike anywhere in Ukraine before Russian forces have sub- stantially retreated would not only kill a large number of civil- ians, but destroy large numbers of Russian troops and equip- ment, too. Moreover, it would create insuperable challenges for integrating the country into the Russian Federation after the conflict – if that was the inten- tion. The recent statements in the 2020 document on Russia's nu- clear doctrine again confirmed that the main purpose of Russian nuclear forces is deterrence and not fighting an offensive war. But as the progress of the Rus- sian army in Ukraine has stalled and Russia is sending signals that it might pull back from western Ukraine and focus on Luhansk, Donbas and Crimea, there have been renewed assertions by sen- ior Russian figures of Russia's right to use nuclear weapons. The former president, Dmitriy Medvedev – one of Putin's key advisors – said on March 26 that there was a "determination to defend the independence, sover- eignty of our country, not to give anyone a reason to doubt even the slightest that we are ready to give a worthy response to any infringement on our country, on its independence". This was clearly directed at the west and apparently aimed at deterring Nato intervention. It appears that the more desperate Russia is to discourage western involvement, the more strident the tone has become regarding the possible use of nuclear weap- ons. In this respect, Russia's use of its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent has so far been successful. But the Russian leaders also know that there are three nucle- ar powers in Nato and a nuclear conflict risks the complete de- struction of Russia. There has been considerable speculation that Putin might be- come so desperate that he would be capable of anything to salvage his situation including "pressing the button". But there is no plau- sible scenario in which the use of nuclear weapons would save the day for Putin. Christoff Bluth Christoph Bluth is Professor of International Relations and Security, University of Bradford