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14 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 24 APRIL 2022 NEWS FRENCH ELECTION FOR the past decades whenev- er France has been faced by the threat posed by the far right, socialists, communists and Gaullists have been united in a republican front to block it. So in 2002, the conservative Jacques Chirac trounced Jean Marie Le Pen with a massive 82% vote share. And in 2017 two-thirds of French voters rallied behind centrist Emanuel Macron to block the Front National's Marie Le Pen. Yet while polls point towards a more modest Macron victo- ry, who hovers around the 55% mark in most polls, four crucial changes in the French political landscape could make today's contest less predictable than ever. Firstly, candidates hailing from the traditional parties of the centre-right (the Gaullists) and the centre-left (the Social- ists) were supported by less than 7% of the electorate. This means that these parties have less leverage than ever even if both parties have stronger support at regional level where Macron's movement is less rooted. Secondly, the centrist Macron – a novelty in 2017 – is facing the election as a tried and test- ed incumbent with a low ap- proval rating of 43% and who largely disappointed voters on the left who blame him for ne- oliberal policies, which in turn create fertile ground for the far-right. Thirdly in the first round, left-wing firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon garnered 7.7 mil- lion votes, trailing Le Pen with just 400,000 votes. The former socialist who leads France In- soumise, a left-wing and sover- eignist movement, has advised his voters not to give a single vote to Le Pen, but stopped short of giving support to Ma- cron. In contrast, the combined vote of the pro-EU centre-left parties, namely the Socialists and the Greens, have rallied behind Macron but barely command the support of 6% of the electorate. And finally, Eric Zemmour's candidature – while splitting the far-right vote – gave Le Pen the opportunity to appear more moderate, at least more in style than in substance. Dr Charles Xuereb sees in- dications that left-wing voters will in the end rally around Macron. For example, on Thursday 14 left-wing mayors of Seine-Saint-Denis, located in the northeast of Paris, called for a vote for Emmanuel Ma- cron, believing that Marine Le Pen as president would sow "division, the promotion of a stunted French identity". "They declared that 'the far- right candidate is an enemy of the Republic, while Macron is a political adversary, against whom we will have to build an opposition," Xuereb said. Over 30% of Seine-Saint-Den- is voters abstained in the first round, more than the national 26% average. Xuereb believes that it will be left-wing voters who supported Mélenchon who "could be the kingmakers of the next French president." Prof. Roderick Pace concurs. "The contest remains tight and much depends if and how the followers of Jean-Luc Mélen- chon vote". Big stakes for Europe With war raging in the Ukraine and a long cold war looming on the horizons, the French election comes at a piv- otal moment as the European Union rediscovers an enthusi- asm for unity. And although Le Pen has tried to whitewash her past support for Putin's annex- ation of the Crimea, Macron has emerged as a safe pair of hands and a continental leader. Roderick Pace notes that dur- ing last Wednesday's presiden- tial debate Emanuel Macron scored one important point on his rival, namely "her past admiration for Vladimir Putin and the money she borrowed from a Russian bank to finance her 2017 campaign". "With a mad war taking place in Ukraine, only Macron can ensure a dependable France to continue to lead the EU de- mocracies in their quest to end France chooses: will Mélenchon's left-wing voters hold a peg on their nose to re-elect Macron, or will they blow a raspberry to send shockwaves across the EU? James Debono catches up with Dr Charles Xuereb, an observer on French affairs, and Prof. Roderick Pace from the Institute for European Studies French voters pick between a peg on the nose or a stinky raspberry JAMES DEBONO