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13 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 27 APRIL 2022 OPINION Joseph Downing Joseph Downing is Senior Lecturer in International Relations and Politics at Aston University EMMANUEL Macron has fended off the challenge from Marine Le Pen to secure a second term as president of France after taking 58.2% of the vote in the second round of the national election. He is one of only a very small number of French presidents to win ree- lection. And since the French constitution limits leaders to two terms, this will be Ma- cron's swan song, whether he likes it or not. That could be interpreted as a carte blanche for Macron to go hell for leather on his contro- versial reforms to the French state, which include raising the retirement age and making sig- nificant changes to labour laws. But some significant obstacles lie in his path. These are some of the key themes he will en- counter in the months ahead. The cost of living Macron has quite an impres- sive record on the economy, having reduced stubborn un- employment levels to their lowest in 13 years. Macron al- so steered France through the unprecedented shock of COV- ID-19 lockdowns, with one of the most generous aid packages in Europe. But he also stands accused of seeking to remake France in his own image and, given he is a relatively privileged former finance professional, this has alienated many. Macron faced a significant challenge from the left during this election, clearly indicating that there is distrust for his neoliberal economic leanings. It's likely that the left will gain seats in the crucial legislative elections in June 2022, which will make it hard- er for Macron to pass reforms through parliament and force him to walk back on some of his more ambitious plans such as reforming labour laws and making welfare benefits more conditional. The unprecedented cost of living crisis in France was a key battleground in this election – and Macron will be keenly aware of the potential for this to cause civil unrest. It was a rise in fuel prices that triggered one of Macron's most significant challenges during his first term – the yellow vest movement. Angry and at times violent protest unfolded across the country in the year leading up to the pandemic. With left and right both disaffected, that un- rest is likely to return. Macron, not worrying about further reelection may simply bulldoze through the dissent. This will be critical – the army already made an unprecedent- ed foray into French politics during Macron's first term, of- fering to step in if the violence continued. All eyes will be on them if trouble bubbles up once more. France's role in the world Macron does not only face in- security at home as he begins his new term. Combined with COVID-19, the war in Ukraine made his first term of the most unpredictable and historical- ly significant presidencies in a generation. Macron at first seemed out of step with other western nations when Putin invaded. He made several trips to Moscow and insisted for longer than others that dialogue must be main- tained with the Kremlin. He has more recently accelerated France's supply of heavy weap- ons to Ukraine, but the delay could cost him. If the conflict takes a turn for the worse and Ukraine is defeated, Macron – and the German chancellor Olaf Scholz – will face ques- tions about why it took so long to supply the weapons need- ed to respond to the Russian threat. In his first term, Macron made multiple unsuccessful attempts to put France back at the cen- tre of global security. His an- ti-jihadist operations in Mali ended with Mali asking France to leave. His reportedly saying that Nato had become "brain dead" caused outrage and plans for an EU army don't appear to have made much progress, despite regular interventions on the subject. With Germa- ny stalling and Sweden and Finland set to join Nato, the EU army idea is dead. Macron would be wise to work closely with Nato and recognise that it is the preeminent organ of European security – improving France's sometimes reluctant relationship) with it. Brexit and immigration Brexit has been a constant thorn in Macron's side. He is highly critical of the more free-wheeling attitude taken by the government of Boris John- son. But, years after the referen- dum, key matters remain unre- solved. In particular, there is a lack of agreement about fishing rights for British and French vessels in the waters around the two countries. The UK's departure from the European Union also created a lack of clarity over how to deal with immigrants and asylum seekers crossing the Channel from France to England. But all this is not to say that Macron's term will be defined by coming up with solutions. There is very little incentive for Macron to tackle illegal mi- gration across the channel, for example, given his need to put France first in the European migration debate. Johnson, and whoever suc- ceeds him, has a tough part- ner in Macron, who is likely to still push for both compliance on issues such as the Northern Ireland protocol – a key tenet of the Brexit settlement that remains and issue for the UK – and further concessions on symbolic populist issues such as fishing rights. Identity, Islam and secularism In 2017 Macron came to pow- er on a reformist agenda, hav- ing little to say about identity, secularism and the more im- mediate structural socioeco- nomic segregation experienced in France's suburban housing estates. He is unlikely, however, to walk back the rhetoric on in- tegration that has been so un- popular with French Muslims. His seperatism bill, which is designed to regulate Islam and gives the state the power to close NGOs and mosques, has been incredibly divisive – but has proved popular with cen- tre right voters, among his core constituents. It is nevertheless important for the French political estab- lishment to get at the nuances and diversity of French Mus- lims and acknowledge that, not only is a "French Islam" possi- ble but that various versions of French Islam have been prac- tised for several decades. No one could have seen in 2017, when Macron first came to power, that he would have to deal with so many events of historic importance. His second and final term will not be an easy one, even if he has shown himself capable of rising to unexpected challenges. A larger question to consider for the next presidential elec- tion in 2027 is whether anyone can take over his political move- ment "Republique en Marche!" Perhaps even more concerning, with the collapse in both the centre right and centre left in France, is what kinds of parties, movements and political fig- ures will emerge to challenge the movement after two stints in government. Emmanuel Macron reelected: four key themes for his second term as president