Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1468033
13 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 18 MAY 2022 OPINION Mick Bailey Mick Bailey is Professor of Comparative Immunology, University of Bristol THE recent spike in cases of sudden, severe hepatitis in chil- dren around the world has been widely reported. Recently, sever- al news outlets have highlighted a possible link between cases and contacts with pet dogs. Howev- er, the data suggesting this link is extremely weak – in fact, proba- bly a lot weaker than most of the alternative hypotheses that have been proposed. The spike in hepatitis cases in children was first noticed in the UK, but has now been re- ported in Europe, Asia and the Americas. Although the num- bers worldwide are still very low, the disease has been severe and some children have needed a liver transplant. At least 11 chil- dren have died, and there are suggestions that it may continue for some time. Hepatitis in humans is normal- ly caused either by toxicity, such as alcohol, or by infections with one of several different virus- es. However, none of the usual viruses have been identified in these children. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), the agency responsible for public health protection in the UK, is working to find the cause of the disease so that it can be ef- fectively controlled and treated. In a recent briefing paper, the agency reported a high number of "dog exposures" in these cas- es of severe childhood hepatitis. However, before parents stop their children from going near their family dog, it's worth look- ing at the results in detail. The UKHSA found that 70% of patients (64 of 92, where data was available) were from dog-own- ing families or had "other dog exposures". Yet 33% of house- holds in the UK own dogs, and many more children from non- dog-owning households will be exposed to dogs when they visit or play with their friends. Seven- ty per cent exposure to dogs may be completely normal. To suggest a link, it's important to show not only that exposure to dogs in patients is high, but that it's higher than in unaffect- ed children. Until that's checked in what's known as a case-con- trol study, any link is nothing more than a suggestion. A second problem with the da- ta is that if you ask enough ques- tions, there's a strong probability that the answers to one or more questions may seem linked to cases. Where we collect very large amounts of data retrospectively, this kind of spurious association can easily occur. In fact, there's a website devoted to collect- ing them. Here's an example: the divorce rate in Maine be- tween 2000 and 2009 seems to be strongly linked to per capita margarine consumption. The important point about links identified by retrospec- tive data is that they are hy- potheses. They always need to be checked by collecting fur- ther data around new cases. If the link is real, it will continue to show up in new data. If it's spurious, it won't. One of the associations on the spurious-correlation website shows another important prob- lem. Between 2000 and 2009, per capita cheese consumption in the US appears to be linked to deaths as a result of becom- ing tangled in bedsheets. It's actually not hard to think that this might happen as a re- sult of cheese-induced night- mares. The fact that we can think of a mechanism under- lying the link gives us more confidence that it might be true, even if the mechanism is quite far-fetched. We tend to put more weight on associa- tions where we can think of a reason, even when the evidence is poor. So what are the possible caus- es of the spike in hepatitis cas- es in children, and might any of them be linked to dogs? One virus in particular, an adeno- virus, has been detected in the blood of 72% of patients tested (for comparison, SARS-CoV-2 was detected in only 18%). Where it was possible to iden- tify the type, it was found to be adenovirus 41 (Ad41), a human type normally causing diar- rhoea in children. Although dogs have their own adeno- viruses that cause respiratory disease or hepatitis, they are not known to infect humans, and Ad41 has no known asso- ciation with dogs. The cases in children don't suggest that infection is passing between children – there are too few cases, too widely dis- tributed for that. Equally, the distribution of cases doesn't suggest that this is a novel virus being transmitted from dogs to children. Cases have appeared in other countries much faster than a dog virus would spread between dogs. Possible causes Are there other possible caus- es? It has been suggested that the severity of the hepatitis is a result of the immune system working incorrectly – either too strongly or not strongly enough. Social distancing dur- ing the pandemic has reduced the transmission of a whole range of diseases, and a lack of exposure to them may have left some children unprepared for infections that normally wouldn't cause a problem. Equally, the lack of exposure to dirt as a result of handwash- ing, sterilising surfaces and other hygiene measures may have predisposed children to over-reactive immune respons- es (as has been suggested for allergic diseases), and the hep- atitis may be caused by the im- mune response rather than a virus. Finally, and not surpris- ingly, it's been suggested that previous COVID infections may have predisposed children to hepatitis. All of these are no more than theories at the moment, and the available data is insufficient to prioritise any of them or to use them to suggest control measures. Fortunately, the in- cidence is still extremely low, and until there is better data parents should probably con- centrate more on keeping an eye out for any symptoms in their children than on reducing their exposure to dogs. Hepatitis spike in children linked to dogs – but the evidence is weak