Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1474369
14 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 24 JULY 2022 NEWS The war in Ukraine – To take stock of the war so far, and what is yet to come, we asked three experts hailing from the military, political, and academic fields how the war could play out in the next months, and how it could eventually end NICOLE MEILAK WITH the Ukraine-Russia war entering its fifth month – or at least five months since Putin an- nounced his 'special military op- eration' in Ukraine – the war is increasingly reaching a difficult stalemate with little left to win or lose. A frozen conflict Isabelle Calleja Ragonesi, an associate professor in interna- tional relations, thinks that the most likely long-term scenario for the war would be that it set- tles into a frozen conflict with gains and losses to be had on both sides of the field. "Currently, the Ukraine has western support and talks of mobilising up to a million new recruits in the field," she said. "yet it is uncertain as to wheth- er the resources are available for it to successfully take back the occupied territories." Meanwhile, Calleja Ragonesi noted that current Russian per- formance and declining sup- port for the war at home make it unlikely that Russia would be able to take over the whole of Ukraine. Colonel David Attard, a for- mer deputy commander with the Armed Forces of Malta, said that he expects the war in Ukraine to drag on for years, even if there is some sort of temporary peace agreement, with repeated and regular flare-ups of open conflict. "This will raise the prospects of wider conflicts in Europe for the foreseeable future, as the USA, EU and NATO wres- tle with the economic cost of supporting this war and how to maintain popular support with- in their respective countries for this war effort in Ukraine." Mutual stalemate Former foreign minister Evar- ist Bartolo sees the foreseea- ble future of the war mired in death and devastation. "Both sides want to resolve their disputes on the battle- field. The right time to start mediation efforts comes when Russia and Ukraine believe they have reached a mutual- ly hurting stalemate where no side can achieve victory and the deadlock is painful for both." For Bartolo, the conflict is more complex than a good- guy-bad-guy scenario. Putin's imperial project to wipe out Ukraine is unacceptable, but a unipolar world where the US imposes its hegemony is also unacceptable. "Russia's red lines have not been taken seriously by the West since the collapse of the Soviet Union and NATO expanded to its border. Rus- sia will never accept Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova in NA- TO." "Real peace will come only if both Russia and Ukraine feel safe in their borders and that their national interests are tak- en care of." Attard similarly believes that the war-fighting may grind to a stalemate in the coming months – assuming of course that Vladimir Putin and Volo- dymyr Zelenskyy will remain at the help of their respective countries. "I can see Russia continu- ing to secure the land bridge to Crimea in the south, whilst protecting the separatist re- gions of Donetsk and Luhansk in the east." However, Attard says a lot will depend on whether Ukraine commits itself to not seeking NATO membership and not to rearm itself, with Russia like- ly forced not to oppose Kyiv's quest for EU membership. "I find it highly unlikely that Russia would be prepared to give up all the territories con- quered. I also cannot see Russia recognising Ukraine's pre-2014 borders or to even consider ceding the present status of Crimea." Does anyone benefit? Like Bartolo, Calleja Ragonesi thinks the war is a losing battle on both sides. Russia has undoubtedly made gains throughout the conflict, and it will remain focused on continued support and eventu- al absorption of the Crimea and Donbass regions, which would win Russia important resourc- es while weakening Ukraine. Meanwhile in the West, Calleja Ragonesi thinks unity may be undermined with coun- tries struggling to maintain sanctions against Russia, which remains superior in terms of oil and gas resources. "However, pursuant to the invasion, changes have oc- curred on the international level not seen since the end of the Cold War," she pointed out. Sweden and Finland have abandoned neutrality and ap- plied for NATO membership. The European Council granted candidacy Ukraine and Moldo- va. Calleja Ragonesi says these are the decisions that will be game-changers in the long run. "The expansion of the EU will further solidify its role as a global economic powerhouse, strengthen its military and se- curity arm, and enhance its po- sition as the dominant regional hegemon, albeit likely increas- ing its reliance on US power." All this while Russia has to contend with a shrinking geo-economic space, "shaped by a western dominated rule- based economic international order that is increasingly treat- ing it as a pariah state".