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14 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 27 JULY 2022 EUROPE RUSSIA'S invasion of Ukraine has galvanised the 30-nation Western military alliance, prompting major spending hikes and new membership requests from Finland and Sweden. Only in the years to come will Russian President Vladimir Pu- tin's war with Ukraine be con- clusively ruled a colossal blunder or strategic masterstroke. But if one of his aims had been to un- dermine NATO and prevent its future expansion, then the cam- paign can certainly be declared a decisive failure. Having already seized the Crimea region from Kyiv's con- trol in 2014, Moscow in late Feb- ruary launched its invasion, part- ly in an attempt to ensure that its neighbour would not seek to join the Western Alliance. Putin's paranoia over NATO's eastwards expansion stems from it having added 14 ex-Soviet or former Warsaw Pact nations to its ranks since the end of the Cold War. This process began in 1999, with the accession of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, and was followed by a seven-nation boost in 2004, when NATO welcomed Bulgar- ia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Steady expansion These were was followed by Al- bania and Croatia (2009), Mon- tenegro (2017), and most re- cently North Macedonia (2020), taking its total membership to 30 countries, and providing pro- tection for roughly one billion citizens. Ukraine's government had shown interest in following suit – in addition to seeking in- clusion within the EU – while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Georgia also have previously in- dicated a potential desire to join. For Russia, such a further strengthening of NATO's east- ern flank is unacceptable, be- cause it leaves open the pros- pect of the Alliance positioning troops and advanced weapons on its doorstep. Abetted by ally Belarus, Russia's forces launched their action in Ukraine to halt President Volodymyr Zelensky's continuing lean to the West. Despite having issued strong- ly-worded warnings for months, NATO and its most powerful member, the USA, could do little more than voice outrage as the war began. While the Alliance's Article 5 states that an attack launched against any one mem- ber will be viewed as an attack against all – so-called collective defence, in the case of Ukraine it could not intervene. But if Putin was counting on potential divisions within NA- TO, such thoughts were in- stantly dispelled, as many of its member states swiftly moved to supply Kyiv with the weapons and equipment needed to bol- ster its defences. "President Putin made a stra- tegic mistake," asserts NATO secretary general Jens Stolten- berg. "He totally underestimated the strength, the ability and the will of the Ukrainian people and Ukrainian armed forces to de- fend themselves, and he under- estimated the unity of NATO, NATO allies and partners to support Ukraine." If moving armoured convoys towards Kyiv and levelling urban centres such as the southern city of Mariupol had been designed to deter nations from siding with NATO, the strategy also swiftly backfired. Rapid steps Finland on 12 May announced that it would apply for mem- bership "without delay", and Sweden did the same four days later, citing "the fundamentally changed security environment following Russia's invasion of Ukraine". "President Putin wanted less NATO. He's getting more NA- TO: more troops, and more NA- TO members," Stoltenberg not- ed on 1 June. If that was not anticipated by the Russian leader, then at least the addition of Helsinki and Stockholm could be used to sup- port his narrative of the nation facing an aggressively expan- sionist adversary. By early June, the US Depart- ment of Defense had upped its presence in Europe to more than 100,000 personnel, and deployed additional fighter, tanker and transport aircraft to the region. "European allies and Canada are also stepping up with more troops, higher readiness and increased defence spending," Stoltenberg said. In June, NATO said there were 130 allied aircraft at high alert at any time along its eastern flank, including those providing air po- licing cover in the Baltic states, and down through Poland, Slo- vakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. Its own surveillance assets also were providing 24/7 coverage. During its 28-30 June Madrid Summit, NATO approved a new Strategic Concept, promising to strengthen its collective defence and "transatlantic solidarity" in the face of the heightened threat. "The Russian Federation is the most significant and direct threat to allies' security and to peace and stability in the Eu- ro-Atlantic area," it says. "With determination, resolve, and in solidarity, allies will continue to counter Russian threats and re- spond to its hostile actions, in a manner consistent with interna- tional law." Condemning the war in Ukraine, the Alliance says: "We will continue and further step up political and practical sup- port" to Kyiv, such as delivering "non-lethal defence equipment", improving cyber defences, and supporting modernisation activ- ities "in its transition to strength- en long-term interoperability". Meanwhile, it also is to "step up tailored political and practical support to partners, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Geor- gia, and the Republic of Moldo- va". This will help to "build their integrity and resilience, develop capabilities, and uphold their political independence", it says. Talks about its expansion plan for Finland and Sweden were completed at NATO headquar- ters in Brussels on 4 July, and Accession Protocol documents were signed the following day. "Both countries formally con- firmed their willingness and ability to meet the political, legal and military obligations and commitments of NATO membership," says the Alliance, which will now wait for each of its current member states to for- mally ratify the expansion. Turkish endorsement Turkey had initially opposed the move, because of what it described as the Nordic nations harbouring supporters of the PKK terrorist organisation, but adjusted its stance with the sig- nature of a trilateral memoran- dum on 28 June. "With 32 nations around the table, we will be even stronger and our people will be even saf- er, as we face the biggest security crisis in decades," Stoltenberg says. NATO notes: "The security of Finland and Sweden is of direct importance to the Alliance, in- cluding during the accession process." Also during the Madrid Sum- mit, plans were announced to Why NATO's ongoing expansion has NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and U.S. President Joe Biden at the NATO Summit in Madrid