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11 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 25 SEPTEMBER 2022 NEWS gitimacy, Salvini found himself overtaken by Giorgio Meloni, the energetic leader of Brothers of Italy (FdI), the successor to the MSI and AN, which distin- guished itself by its opposition to COVID mandates and the un- elected Draghi government. Now it is the rivalry between the two leaders of the Italian hard right – Salvini and Meloni – that will condition the actions of the next Italian government, with an octogenarian Berlusconi fashioning himself as the guar- antor of Italy's liberal credentials in a coalition he no longer con- trols, losing his role as arbitor of this contest between strong- (wo)men politicians. Arnold Cassola, a former cen- tre-left Italian MP, and Maltese green politician, suspects that bad blood between the two poli- ticians may well impact the lon- gevity of the government. "Will the Italian centre-right coalition last the whole five years of its mandate? Judging by the ven- omous digs at Meloni by 'allies' Berlusconi and Salvini during this election campaign… I have my strong doubts." Despite his aversion to Mel- oni's ideology, Prof. Cassola is not surprised by her political rise from leader of a minor par- ty, which gained 4% of the vote in 2018, to leading Italy's largest party. Meloni was first elected to parliament in 2006, when she formed part of Fini's Alleanza Nazionale. It was in the same year that Cassola was elected as a Green MP in Romano Prodi's centre-left coalition. "I have first-hand experience of Giorgia Meloni's abilities. De- spite being only 28 at the time, she stood out as one of the four Deputy Speakers in Parliament... Brilliant, intelligent and an in- nate orator, she was simply a pleasure to listen to, even though we sat on completely opposite sides of the political spectrum." Project Fear But how big is the risk of Italy turning black? As the centre-left democrats tried to conjure fears of a leap in the dark, in a bid to present themselves as the re- sponsible party anchored in Eu- ropean values, Meloni walked on a tight-rope, emboldening bigots by lashing out at so-called gender ideology, promising a European blockade of Libya to stop migrant arrivals, but also conveniently ditching her past admiration for Vladimir Putin and her past pledge to leave the eurozone. And when asked whether she agreed with her predecessor on fascism being an absolute evil, she replied that she had never disassociated herself from that statement. The end result is a co- alition which is more Tory-like in economics – promising a flat tax which favours business – but which has inserted itself in for- mer left-wing neighbourhoods, mostly appealing to migration fears. And while the left is ac- cused of conjuring unrealistic fears of a restoration of fascis, which Meloni dubbed as 'Pro- ject Fear', the right increasing- ly thrives in a culture of fear of others in everyday life, in a coun- try plagued by bad governance which magnifies insecurities. With so much to lose in terms of EU funding and reputation, the end result may well be busi- ness as usual, spiced by symbolic and divisive measures aimed at keeping the ultra-right base hap- py, which could take the form of regular showdowns with other EU countries, including Malta, on migrant arrivals. No Italexit on the horizon Peter Aguis, an MEP candidate in the last round of European elections, and a former close collaborator of Antonio Tajani, a former president of the Euro- pean Parliament hailing from the moderate wing of Silvio Ber- lusconi's Forza Italia, does not expect Italy to make a radical shift in its foreign and economic policy. "Since Brexit, with its empty promise of 'sunlit uplands' no- where in sight, everyone has be- come wiser. Today, there is no political force of any electoral relevance anywhere in the EU that advocates exit from the EU or the eurozone. This includes Italy and Meloni's party." Moreover, surveys show that the Italian people, like the Mal- tese, realise the huge added val- ue of European cooperation. "I believe that no one in their right senses leading Italy would ignore this and risk European achieve- ments like free movement of people, the stability of the euro currency and an internal mar- ket of 500 million citizens for the 'Made in Italy'. This is why Giorgia Meloni has toned down much of her anti-EU rhetoric in the past months, in view of the seat at Palazzo Chigi." Surely the stark nationalistic tone of Meloni still sends jitters in Brussels. "To some extent, Meloni's call is a reminder that the EU is a union of different peoples united through common interests. I do not associate with Meloni's caricatural attacks on Brussels' initiatives and her use of faith as a dividing factor. I do believe, however, that it is not il- legitimate to fight for one's own country's national interest in Brussels. We must strive to find European common ground but we must never neglect the needs of our communities at home." Neither does Agius believe that a Meloni government would be detrimental to Malta's interests. "We have to work intelligently to keep furthering Malta's inter- ests if Meloni is elected to lead Italy's government. We need to remember, first, that with Brex- it we lost a main ally around the negotiating table. Malta needs to consolidate alliances with member states who have similar interests to be able to mould the Union to fit our needs". One of the major concerns is that hard right government in Italy would trigger migration stand-offs which soured rela- tions with Italy whenever the far right was in government. But according to Agius.Malta should consider closer coopera- tion with Italy on migration and sea rescue operations while ac- knowledging that "the difference of interpretation" of internation- al rules between Malta and Italy "results in continuing cases of migrants left in distress without a clear port of call". Agius believes Italy and Malta can work together, as they did in the past "to consolidate and reinforce an EU policy for Libya and Central Africa, where the Union invests heavily in meas- ures ensuring economic growth for Africans to build a future in Africa". Cassola is less optimistic. "The probable installation of Matteo Salvini as minister of the interior will probably put an end to Italy's 'welcoming' policy for migrants, shifting much more pressure on our authorities here in Malta. The days of asking Italy to take the responsibility for migrants in Malta's SAR aree will be over." Moreover. a win for Melo- ni will not only bring about an ideological change in Italy, but will also translate into further complications for the European project. Cassola says Meloni is a convinced sovereigntist "op- posed to the concept of a strong- er political union in Europe" and that this will certainly prevent closer co-operation on common European financial measures and a closer collaboration in de- fence issues. Carmen Sammut recognises a shift in Meloni's discourse on European integration. "In the past she did not mince her words about her Euroscepticism, even if her stance has mellowed." But Meloni will now be in a position "to influence Euro- pean responses to the hot war in Ukraine, the resulting ener- gy and cost of living crises, the looming recession and the cli- mate chaos that characterize the post-COVID era." Culture wars to keep the base happy Will Meloni become a Trojan horse weakening Europe from within, or will her appointment as PM make her even more careful and responsible? In the absence of any change in over- all economic and foreign policy direction, the new government may be tempted to simply play the culture wars game in a bid to keep right-wingers in the party's base happy while playing to the EU's rules. In a sign of things to come, Isa- bella Rauti, one of Meloni's lieu- tenants, grabbed the headlines by lashing out at the Peppa Pig cartoon for featuring a lesbian polar bear couple. "The last thing the world needs in these trou- bled times is a far-right Europe- an movement with its annoying divisive rhetoric and dangerous cultural wars. Sadly, those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it," Sammut points out on this incident. And while Meloni herself has made it clear that she would not restrict abortion rights, the new government may be tempted in- to tinkering with abortion laws by forcing women to listen to the foetal heartbeat before aborting, an Orban-inspired measure in- troduced by the right in the Ital- ian region of Marche. In fact, the slogan 'God, coun- try and fatherland' – reminis- cent of the Maltese Nationalist Party's 'religio et patria' tagline, suggests a historical regression to aggressive nationalism. But how far the Italian right wing can go in eroding existing civil liberties, remains doubtful, even if its victory makes the introduc- tion of gay marriage impossible and will abort the extension of citizenship rights to children born and schooled in Italy. Sammut also notes the disso- nance between Meloni's trail- blazing role as Italy's first female PM, and the conservative agen- da she promotes. "Italy is set to appoint its first female prime minister and I am not delighted," she points out, saying feminists have expressed concern about her family planning policies, her lip service to the "traditional" family, and her unsympathet- ic position on minority rights. "They conclude that her political arguments do not auger well for female representation or wom- en's rights. Still, while Meloni is no feminist, she still has a duty towards Italian and European women because, whether she likes it or not, she is a trailblaz- er." The failures of the left And why has Meloni been so successful while the centre-left and its allies so powerless in stopping her? For Sammut, Meloni personifies European resentment towards the failures of the left and its disconnection from the masses. "Like many of her supporters, she hails from a staunchly left-wing industrial heartland, which was previously a Communist Party domain." But one major reason behind Meloni's rise is her ability to capture the anti-establishment mood by offering a simplistic narrative based on soundbites which can easily go viral on so- cial media. "Her blunt oppo- sition to political correctness coloured her profile as nemesis of the political establishment," Sammut notes. In contrast, established par- ties frequently lack a coherent political vision. "Traditional party representation is often immersed in mediatised hype and pastiche politics," Sammut says, "where the grassroots are disconnected, disenchanted and their resentments and fears ig- nored. The pressures of immi- gration and multiculturalism frequently emerge at the fore- front of the issues at hand. She presented herself as an alterna- tive to all this." Added to the existential crisis of the left is its inability to as- semble a united coalition, which includes Giuseppe Conte's Five Star Movement, with whom the Democrats governed between 2019 and 2021. For while the right is on the brink of a super- majority, with some commenta- tors speculating on the not-so- remote possibility of it winning a two-thirds majority to rewrite the Constitution, the combined sum of the allied right-wing par- ties does not add to more than 48%. Fratelli d'Italia 25% Partito Democratico 22% Lega 13% 5 Stars 13% Azione/Italia Viva 7% Forza Italia 7% Verdi/Sinistra 3% Più Europa 2% Latest polls