Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1480113
8 NEWS ANALYSIS maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 28 SEPTEMBER 2022 WITH over 44% of the vote, It- aly's right-wing coalition, led by hard-right Fratelli d'Italia, has won nearly 60% of seats in both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. This super-majority is the product of a hybrid electoral system known as the rosatellum, in which one-third of seats are elected on a first-past-the-post basis, while the rest are distrib- uted on a proportional basis. With the opposition divided into three rival forces, the right could easily sweep the first- past-the-post seats. It would have been a different story if all seats were distributed on a proportional basis, because the combined percentage of the opposition in its entirety re- mains greater than that of the winning coalition. No more technocrats? This means that the right- wing coalition has mastered enough support to govern for a whole legislative term, giv- ing Italy its first homogenous political government emerging directly from the polls, since the fall of the scandal-ridden Berlusconi-led government in 2011. The latest result contrasts with that of 2018 which saw the same right-wing coalition winning a relative majority but without having sufficient seats to govern. This was followed first by a populist government formed between the far-right Lega and populist Movimento Cinque Stelle, then by a cen- tre-left government between the Democrats and the M5S, and finally by a technocrat- ic government supported by everyone but Meloni. So, in part, the success of the right could represent a desire for clarity and an aversion to patchy deals made by parties following elections. Meloni's incredible 22-point surge The only party to gain votes since 2018 was Meloni's Fratel- li d'Italia which was in opposi- tion for the past four years. While Meloni saw her party's support increase by 22 points, all other major parties either lost votes or remained stuck at 2018 levels. This suggests that Italians have penalised all the parties which supported the Draghi government. But it also shows that Ital- ians are increasingly restless, choosing one fad after the oth- er: first choosing Matteo Ren- zi who was close to 40% in the MEP elections in 2009; then opting for the Cinque Stelle which won one-third of votes in 2018; then switching to Sal- vini in MEP elections in 2019; and finally giving Meloni a try. The result itself suggests a shift from the Lega Nord and from the Cinque Stelle, to Meloni's party. Significantly the right-wing electorate has shifted the bal- ance further to the right. For while in 2018 the Lega was just 3 points stronger than Forza Italia, which had been dominant in all previous ap- pointments since 1994, this time around Meloni's party is 18 points stronger than both Forza Italia and the Lega. In this sense the government is now more hard-right than centre-right. The loser on the winning side On the winning side, the greatest loser was Matteo Sal- vini's Lega which saw its sup- port plummet from 17 points to 9. This suggests that Salvini's right-wing populist electorate was disoriented first by the co- alition with the more left-lean- ing Cinque Stelle, and then by Salvini's own support for the Draghi government. This elec- torate could easily shift to Mel- oni's Fratelli D'Italia, which is equally anti-immigrant and whose anti-establishment cre- dentials were not corroded by support for Draghi. Yet, with Meloni becoming prime minister and forced to compromise with EU partners and even follow the Draghi rulebook to avoid economic collapse, the Lega may well play the same game Meloni played in the past two years: that of outflanking its rival in the co- alition from the right. But to do so Salvini needs a platform which Meloni may now deny him: that of becoming once again home affairs minister re- sponsible for migration. For Meloni may now be wary of giving this platform to a bit- ter Salvini and seek to score points on this issue by appoint- ing someone from her own party in this strategic role. This may well spell the end of the Lega as a national force, and possibly its relegation to a re- gionalist force as it was under Umberto Bossi in the 1990s. Moreover, Meloni may still find a way to satisfy her base without upsetting the apple cart of the economy. She may do this by compensating frus- tration at continuity in eco- nomic and foreign policy, with a more confrontational ap- proach on migration and by in- citing culture wars which could solidify her hegemony on the right. But such a strategy may al- so attract more international scrutiny, especially if Italy re- sorts to showdowns with oth- er EU countries like Malta by refusing any responsibility for boat people. The problem is that the right wing's culture of fear can easily slip out of hand, emboldening more random acts of racism which could further lacerate communities. Also risky for Meloni is any attempt to push too far on is- sues like gay rights and abor- tion as this could backfire bad- ly in terms of public support and give the left a worthy cause to mobilise for: that of standing for civil liberties. The octogenarian survivor Silvio Berlusconi, the third leg of the coalition, has also seen support for his party drop from 14 to 8 points. But Forza Italia has avoided being relegated to the role of a junior partner of two much stronger parties. Although much weaker than Meloni, Berlusconi's party is now at a par with Salvini's Le- ga and has managed to avoid the humiliation of becoming irrelevant to the make-up of the next government. While some polls suggested that the two far-right parties may have enough votes to govern with- out needing Forza Italia, in the final instance Berlusconi remains indispensable to the right-wing majority: his party's affiliation with the European People's Party could even give a veneer of legitimacy to the ruling coalition. And the party could shore up the limited talent pool of the hard right by offering seasoned politicians like former Europe- an Parliament president Anto- nio Tajani to Meloni's cabinet. In this way, Berlusconi can de- liver on his solemn pre-elector- al promise to be the guarantee for a foreign policy anchored in NATO and the EU, even if Giorgia Meloni was the only clear winner in an election which saw her gain 22 points over 2018, while all other parties suffered a massive drop in support. Will a bitter Matteo Salvini upset her honeymoon and how far will Silvio Berlusconi condition her choices? Italian election: the winners, losers, JAMES DEBONO Italy's right-wing coalition leaders Giorgia Meloni, Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini