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13 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 2 OCTOBER 2022 OPINION Meloni's win proves even a seemingly successful government can fall victim to populism IN a historic win, Giorgia Mel- oni's Brothers of Italy took 26% of the national vote in Italy's latest election – the first time a far-right party will take the lead in government since the second world war. Meloni will become prime minister at the head of a coalition – although the make up of that government is yet to be decided. While this outcome was ex- pected, it is still astonishing. In the 2018 elections, Meloni's party took a mere 4.3% of the vote. But her fortunes rapid- ly changed. By February 2021, when former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi was forming a national unity government, 16.5% of the vot- ing public was already saying they intended to vote for Broth- ers of Italy – the only major political party not supporting Draghi. Although respected in- ternationally, Draghi's govern- ment was perceived by many Italians as being the ultimate expression of the power held by the world's financial elites. Meloni voiced this populist concern on many occasions, and her strategy has paid off. When the Draghi government fell apart in July 2022, after barely a year and half in office, Brothers of Italy had reached 25% while the League was down from 25% to 12.4%. By staying outside of the coa- lition, Meloni gave herself the opportunity to freely criticise the government and present her party as the only true op- position. More than a nostalgic vote for a distant fascist past, the Italian electorate's support for Meloni reflects a discontent with the current economic and social situation. Distance from the Draghi government also paid off for the Five Star Movement. The populist party currently led by Giuseppe Conte was flounder- ing on 10% in July 2022 (having polled as high as 33% in 2018) but has rebuilt to somewhere more like 15%. During the electoral campaign, the Five Star Movement revived some popular policy measures, such as a guaranteed "citizen's in- come", which Draghi had criti- cised. They made a particularly strong showing in the south, thanks to policies of this kind. Parties that explicitly or im- plicitly (in the League's case) opposed the Draghi govern- ment together took more than 50% of the vote while parties running on the "Draghi agen- da" (Azione) or pledging their support to the Draghi govern- ment (the Democratic Party and More Europe) reached less than 30%. The revolt against Draghi's government is all the more interesting since he was not pushing for austerity measures but rather drafting reforms and investment measures financed by the EU. The populist narra- tive of protecting the ordinary people from the financial elite still proved a successful tactic. What a Meloni government will look like Meloni is Italy's first female prime minister. With the ex- ception of Scandinavia, most other female prime minis- ters in Europe have also come from right-wing parties. This is somewhat ironic, given how it is often parties of the left who pride themselves on advanc- ing gender equality and wom- en's empowerment. Ironically, the Brothers of Italy's victo- ry led to the replacement of a 75-year-old man belonging the establishment (Draghi) with a 45-year-old woman (Meloni). Nevertheless, forming a gov- ernment will not be easy for Meloni. While the electoral results established her as the clear head of the coalition, a lack of expertise and experi- ence will make populating min- isterial posts a challenge. The highest level expert advisers in Italy are more commonly asso- ciated with moderate political parties, so finding people will be less easy for an insurgent party like Brothers of Italy. Who to put in charge of for- eign affairs and economics are particularly pressing questions. Former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi has already offered his support. Meloni will have a chance to take a hardline approach on domestic policy and will cer- tainly endeavour to be tough- er on migration and on social rights, as her electorate appears to be demanding. But she will struggle to do much by way of radical economic change. The Draghi government already drafted a detailed plan of re- forms and investments that will have to be carried out in order to secure EU financing. Although the Brothers of Italy is a statist, corporatist and na- tionalist party which tends to mistrust globalisation, Meloni can't afford to put too much distance between herself and the European Union. She may follow the style of many Italian politicians before her by double dealing. There's an old saying that Italian poli- ticians hold two press confer- ences in Brussels: one on the top floor for business and EU partners, and another in the basement, for the public who blames Brussels for any reform measure. And given the complex inter- national landscape, Meloni will find foreign policy just as diffi- cult to manage. On campaign posters, Meloni asked Italians "Pronti?" (ready?) – the same question Draghi posed to members of the Ital- ian parliament about his reform plans before it all fell apart. While her election has been re- ceived as a radical shift, the new prime minister would be wise to not overestimate how ready people are for change. Vincenzo Galasso Vincenzo Galasso is Professor of Economics, Bocconi University Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy took 26% of the national vote