Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1483693
13 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 9 NOVEMBER 2022 OPINION Víctor Resco de Dios is Profesor de cambio global, Universitat de Lleida Miguel Ángel de Zavala Gironés is Catedrático de Ecología, Universidad de Alcalá THE search for solutions to climate change is reminiscent of the tragedy of the commons, where neighbours bene- fit from shared goods, such as an area of pasture or an irrigation pond, but their overexploitation ends up degrading the shared resource. Faced with a situation that harms everyone involved – in this case, out-of- control greenhouse gas emissions – the actors are unable to reach consensus positions that guarantee the common good, ie. limiting global warming to be- low 2 ℃. To address this "tragedy", the United Nations will host the 27th summit on climate change (COP27) in Sharm el- Sheikh (Egypt) from November 6 to 18. What are COP meetings and what are they for? In 1992, the Earth Summit in Rio de Ja- neiro, better known as the Rio Confer- ence, established the Framework Con- vention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), among other agreements. The summits known as COPs (Conference of the Par- ties) are some of the instruments that attempt to reach binding international agreements on emission reductions. The UNFCCC has hosted an annual COP, from the first one in 1995 in Ber- lin to the 26th in Glasgow last year. Per- haps the most famous COP was the third (COP3), in 1997, which established the Kyoto Protocol: a set of commitments to achieve the decarbonisation of soci- ety and limit the damage from climate change. Another particularly important COP was COP21, held in Paris in 2015. Coun- tries there signed an agreement to limit global warming to 2 ℃. It also included the aspiration to limit it to 1.5 ℃. What happened at COP26? Last year's COP is considered by many to have fallen short of its expectations, but some progress was made. A firm commitment on zero emissions by 2050 was expected, in order to main- tain the possibility of limiting global warming to 1.5 ℃. This required a 45% cut in emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 emissions. However, the agree- ments signed set us on a path for an average temperature increase of about 2.4 ℃. Last-minute negotiations were par- ticularly frustrating, as the term "phase out" of carbon was changed to "phase down" just before the negotiations were due to close. Another key issue at COP26 was how to finance clean development in poorer countries and how to compensate them for the damage they have suffered be- cause of climate change, for which more industrialised countries are responsible. At COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, a cli- mate fund of $100 billion per year was pledged for developing countries from 2020 onwards. The current figures are still far below that target. What can we expect from COP27? This year's COP is seen as the one that will bring concrete actions and commit- ments on emission reductions and also on the financing of losses and damag- es resulting from climate change to the global south. It has been called the "African COP" because important commitments are expected, in particular for the African continent. It's one of the most vulner- able continents to climate change from an environmental and social point of view, but paradoxically one of the least involved in the historical accumulation of emissions. Despite agreements at previous COPs, the UN estimates that emissions in 2030 will be higher than in 2010, which elim- inates the possibility of limiting warm- ing to below 2 ℃. COP27 is therefore expected to be the one where effective emission reduction policies are imple- mented. The risk of greenwashing COP27 is also expected to make sig- nificant progress in the fight against tropical deforestation. Terrestrial eco- systems are essential in the fight against climate change, absorbing 25% of green- house gas emissions. But we must be vigilant that the possi- ble establishment of the Forests and Cli- mate Leaders' Partnership (FCLP) does not end up being a propaganda strategy or greenwashing that would allow big business to continue to emit while hid- ing behind uncontrolled and unmoni- tored tree plantations, which often gen- erate more environmental damage than benefits and undermine the interests of indigenous communities. Impact of the war in Ukraine The war in Ukraine has highlighted Europe's vulnerability due to depend- ence on fossil fuels and the need to re- think its energy model. After decades of calling on developing countries to grow through renewable energy, Europe's en- ergy crisis is forced to be exemplary and to make a firm commitment to non-fos- sil fuel energy. Otherwise its credibility and opportunity to influence the global energy transition will be undermined. It is also foreseeable that the US will try to reinforce its technological leader- ship by promoting ambitious initiatives and gain the ground lost during the pre- vious administration. Another possible consequence of the war is whether the resulting new geopo- litical status quo will affect emissions. In addition to the traditional influence of Western countries, China has a growing presence in Africa, which may encour- age important agreements to strength- en its position on the continent. Is international cooperation really possible? COPs are often experienced with a certain optimism and excitement before they begin and with disappointment after they close. Replacing the main source of energy -fossil fuels- and the current short-term economic growth model is extremely complex. The out- come will not be known until the end of the 12-hour meeting on the final day. Whatever the final outcome, the sci- entific community has a key role to play in rigorously documenting the impacts of climate change, the future risks for different regions and integrating the so- cial perspective with the ecological one. Different studies show examples of pos- sible consensus solutions to avoid over- exploitation of shared resources and, ultimately, tragedy. COP27: what to expect Víctor Resco de Dios & Miguel Ángel de Zavala Gironés