Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1488480
11 MALTATODAY SURVEY maltatoday | SUNDAY • 18 DECEMBER 2022 2090 8600 COLLECTION OF DOMESTIC WASTE advantage of 43,322 votes over the PN – a gap that is 3,800 votes wider than that of the election. Undecided respondents, who accounted for 13.2% (46,873 voters) in the December survey, were not attributed a voting in- tention for the purposes of this exercise. But the December survey also recorded 22.2% of voters who said they will not vote. This would translate into 78,832 vot- ers, who have declared their in- tention to abstain. This represents an increase of 19,000 voters over the gener- al election when almost 60,000 voters either stayed at home or invalidated their ballot. If one were to draw an average of the four surveys conducted since the election – May, July, October and December – the PL would clock an average of 40.4% (143,460 votes), the PN 24.7% (87,710 votes), ADPD 2.6% (9,233 votes), and the 'no-vote party' 17.6% (62,498). The numbers suggest a mix- ture of political fatigue and dis- illusionment has kicked in after the election but the PN contin- ues to be punished more harshly than the PL. In the March election both ma- jor parties registered a decrease in the number votes obtained when compared to five years pri- or but the PN decline was steep- er, leading to an even bigger gap between the parties. Bigger share for ADPD ADPD's performance in the election was an improvement over its performance five years prior and the MaltaToday sur- veys now give the party an av- erage support of 2.6%, or 9,233 votes. This represents an in- crease of almost 4,500 votes over the election performance. Although ADPD's survey re- sults must be treated with cau- tion since they fall within the margin of error, they do follow the election trend where all third parties grouped together, including independent candi- dates, scored a combined 9,308 votes. This result by third parties and independents was unprecedent- ed for a general election since 1966. The surveys so far suggest that this could become a trend. But the bigger phenomenon party strategists will be definite- ly looking at is the disillusioned voter. The 'no-vote party' An abstention of almost 60,000 voters in the March election was a significant development that shocked the political establish- ment. Although the downward trend in voter turnout was vis- ible over the previous two dec- ades, the rapid increase in the last election was astounding. And the survey numbers sug- gest that the 'no-vote party' has continued to grow since the election. The average of non-voters in the four surveys held since May, shows that 17.6% of respond- ents will not vote if an election is held now. This figure represents 62,498 voters. The 'no-vote party' doubled from 11.2% in the May survey to 22.2% in December. A breakdown of the numbers shows that the absolute major- ity of non-voters are the same people who chose not to vote in the March general election. However, while in the May sur- vey 51.3% of election non-voters reconfirmed their abstention, this number grew to 73.3% by December. Abstainers include PL and PN voters Abstention rates also increased among supporters of the two major parties, with the PN once again being punished harder than the PL. In the May survey, 0.9% of PL election voters and 5.6% of PN voters said they would not vote. These numbers grew to 9.9% of PL voters and 16.2% of PN voters by December, an indication of growing disenchantment among their respective supporters. The reasons for this could be varied and different for either set of supporters but the PL en- joys an advantage over its rival since its leader, Robert Abela, enjoyed a significantly high trust rating over the period despite experiencing a decline. Abela remained more popular than his party, which means the PL has growth potential. On the flip side, Bernard Grech's trust rating remained flat and is less popular than his own party. The overall picture that the surveys paint is one where the general election scenario con- tinues to persist – the PL retains a strong advantage over the PN against a backdrop of growing rejection of the two main par- ties. But the little change in the overall picture sits side by side with the big tremors caused by voters stamping their feet. In the new year, politicians are advised to keep their ears on the ground.