Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1489864
8 OPINION 12.1.2023 Will the UK ever return to the EU family? George Mangion George Mangion is a senior partner at PKF, an audit and consultancy firm, and has over 25 years' experience in accounting, taxation, financial and consultancy services. His efforts have made PKF instrumental in establishing many companies in Malta and established PKF as a leading professional financial service provider on the Island O ne think-tank reckons that the British econo- my would be more than 5% bigger now if Britain had voted to stay in the EU. Does the wave of nation- wide industrial strikes rekindle memories of the early eighties when prime minister Marga- ret atcher faced a winter of discontent. is ensued after a bloody battle with the unions asking for unrealistic working conditions. Back to 2023, and more than 2,600 ambulance workers plan to strike in late January over a pay claim. Hospital bosses at NHS are calling for "serious talks" between the govern- ment and unions to avoid even more pressure on already over- stretched services. e strike marks an escalation in the dis- pute, with other workers resort- ing to prolonged industrial ac- tion during the pre-Christmas period. Other bad news follows for Rishi Sunak, as workers in Wales, and Midlands shall also go on strike. Only about 20% of train ser- vices were running this week, due to the strikers seeking a deal. Notice how a strike by train drivers ordered by their Aslef union virtually grounded all trains at particular nodes. Train operators want an 8% pay increase over two years but one should not bet on it. Another teachers' strike takes place in Scotland on 10 and 11 January armed with a deal for a 6.85% increase for the lowest paid. is claim was rejected, with teachers now arguing for 10%. About 100,000 civil servants have voted to strike across dif- ferent government departments while in the health sector junior doctors are planning to hold a ballot this month, over a pay deal which will give them 2% this year. Bus drivers are also on the warpath to strike as they collec- tively call for a pay increase to reflect the soaring cost of living. Sunak, in recent interviews, did not rule out the prospect of people being sacked for going on strike. While saying he be- lieved in the freedom to strike, he added: "I also believe that should be balanced with the right of ordinary working peo- ple to go about their lives free from significant disruption". At a time, when the purchas- ing power is waning due to in- flation, there is little logic to blame workers to fight for it. e penny drops - does Britain afford such exuberance? e Department for Transport said train operators had sent a writ- ten claim for an 8% pay rise over two years by members in the Aslef union. Yet the Tories hegemony are still denying such landslide strikes saying they are not a con- sequence of Brexit, recession or loss of trade. e government is still committed to replacing or repealing all retained EU, legislation by the end of 2023, a goal that promises pointless disruption. What is the verdict on the street concerning surreal bene- fits promised by Boris Johnson when the UK left Europe with- out a deal in 2016? Some are blaming Brexit for the current drop in British economy, which added a number of constraints in overseas trade. is fact has not warmed the heart of prime Minister Sunak, as he has re- jected any move to rebuild dam- aged trade relations with the EU stating that in his opinion change would undermine the UK's freedoms. Mr Sunak proclaimed: "let me be unequivocal about trade - "Under my leadership, the UK will not pursue any relationship with Europe that relies on align- ment with EU laws". e prime minister pointed to better con- trol of borders and new trade deals, claiming: "Brexit can de- liver, and is already delivering, giving us enormous benefit and opportunities." Reality shows how Sunak's government is under pressure to explain how it will mitigate the forecast 4 per cent drop in GDP, with a 15 per cent loss of trade. Pundits quote the Centre for Economic Policy team which reckons that Brexit added 6% to food prices in two years. It crit- icized how the much-promised burst of deregulation has not materialised. Westminster be- lieves in elusive trade benefits promised by Brexit and denies essential UK trade is being sac- rificed. Quoting the British Chamber of Commerce, 56 per cent of UK businesses are still facing diffi- culties adapting to new trading rules. Compounding the mis- ery, it showed that dependence on imported food and other goods was adding to inflation and the pain for household fi- nances. Businesses feel they are banging their heads against a brick wall as nothing has been done to help them, said BCC director general Shevaun Hav- iland. Another warning comes from the former Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders saying London was now second to Paris as Europe's biggest stock market. Adrian Hanrahan chief executive of a small chemicals company, Robinson Brothers, claims it is…"It's cost, cost, cost with no benefit". He highlights a brain- drain of EU workers in sectors such as health, hos- pitality and agriculture, even if some of those returning home have been replaced by unskilled immigrants from third country nationals. Witnessing the fallout, some high-profile bosses who vot- ed for Brexit are calling on the government to relax the new and tighter immigration rules. Quite vociferous is the opinion of the campaign group Save British Food they say Brexit is tearing the Union apart and destroying our largest manufac- turing sector - food and farm- ing". Trade is traumatized in so much red tape. Food prices have risen by 14.6% over the past year. Staples like milk and butter were up by even more, some 30%. Most lament that new trade deals, such as the one struck with Australia "have been tiny". Undoubtedly, Russia's in- vasion of Ukraine last year proved even more disruptive and both sides are digging damp trenches for the brief winter stalemate. Labour Party stalwarts blame the Tories, say- ing they have become ungov- ernable, due to the corrosion from Brexit and the sheer ex- haustion of 13 years in power. Between 2009 and 2019, Brit- ain's productivity growth rate was the second-slowest in the G7, albeit it had a more com- petitive economy than say Italy. If Sir Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party, becomes prime minister in 2024, many predict that relations with Brus- sels would improve overnight. In time, life could become a little jollier for Britons who still feel themselves European. e cry for a referendum to bring back membership of EU is get- ting louder. Certainly, if a recession and back benchers force Sunak to allow a referendum on Brexit, the outcome may stabilise trade relations and jettison overboard the growth lethargy that reti- cently gripped the British lion.