Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1491153
9 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 29 JANUARY 2023 NEWS shortcoming is a lack of government experience, and – sources believe – a simmering rivalry with the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, who has not yet decided about seeking a sec- ond term. That is a decision that Von der Leyen must take by summer 2023, by declaring her candidature for the EP with the Christian-Democrat Union (CDU). And in this game of football-like transfers – with Weber hoping to win defectors from the right – there is also talk of attracting right-wing stragglers from the liberal Renew, which today is under the influence of French president Emmanuel Macron. After all, the EPP's traditional parties such as the Républic- ains in France, just like Forza Italia in Italy, no longer command the influence they once had. Even here, Roberta Metsola can be an important factor – Renew backed her nomination for the presidency in the run-off vote, and Metsola fell in line with French demands to uphold the EP's historic pro-choice position by signing the Simone Veil pact, against all expectations. Ever the career politician, Metsola can only look up. Progessives sound alert Europe's socialists have noted Weber's overtures to Europe's nationalists, with the secretary-general of the Party of Eu- ropean Socialists (the European party for the S&D group in the EP) accusing the German MEP of shifting the EPP into a political space that has nothing to do with Christian democratic values. "He bears responsibility... The allianc- es he encouraged in Italy and Sweden, and may well promote in Spain too, were not surprising; after all, he was the one defending Viktor Orbán for so many years," Giacomo Filibeck said, warning against the ECR getting a greater say in steering the EU's direction. Udo Bullmann, a German social dem- ocrat MEP from the SPD, told Euractive that Weber was single-minded in his quest to safeguard the EPP's domina- tion of European politics. "That dom- inates everything. And to reach that goal, they go way too far... The EPP is about power. It is not about the project of the future," Bullman warned, liken- ing it to the United States's Republican Party's cosying up to the far right. "This attempt did not lead to the dominance of the centre-right elements in the Re- publican Party, but rather to the defeat of democratic values in this party." And to go by the rumours in the Finn- ish press, it appears that the prospect of a Metsola spitzenkandidat could push the socialists to present Finnish prime minister Sanna Marin as their own lead candidate in the 2024 elections – largely seen as a liberal, untarnished candidate, with a hard line against Russia, who could give the S&D some reprieve fol- lowing the Qatargate embarrassment. Marin's Social Democratic Party (SDP) is in coalition with the Centre Party, the Green League, Left Alliance and the Swedish People's Party, and could be poised for re-election in April 2023. The Malta situation Even if Metsola had to be crowned the EPP's spitzenkandidat, the road to Eu- ropean Commission president would be fraught with obstacles. First up, her absence fronting the Na- tionalist Party's campaign in 2024 while she tours the European mainland drum- ming up support for EPP lists, might weaken the embattled PN's appeal in an election where they are expected to capitalise on any shortcomings of the Labour Party (an upside for some hope- ful candidates for Brussels – less Metso- la at home, more room for them on the campaign front). Whether this looks good for party leader Bernard Grech, with the par- ty having lost its third seat in 2019, is another issue. Metsola's appeal as out- going EP president would be crucial in garnering votes from Labour 'switchers' or pale-red voters and raise the overall national vote count for the PN – not a mean feat with the party down 60,000 votes in 2019. Secondly, even if the EPP, or an EPP- ECR alliance wins the European elec- tions, there is no automatic recognition that the spitzenkandidat gets to be Eu- ropean Commission president. That is a matter negotiated between the prime ministers of Europe in the Council – the same Council that ruled out lead can- didate Manfred Weber in 2019 despite the support of German chancellor An- gela Merkel. The question would depend on the political composition of the Council of Ministers in 2024, and whether that would have a bearing on Maltese prime minister Robert Abela, whose Labour Party has ruled undefeated since 2013. It is Abela who would have to accept to have Metsola as his own country's nominee for the Commission, scupper- ing a potential Labour nomination, his deputy PM and former leadership rival, Chris Fearne. Leaving aside the kind of grassroots disgust at seeing a Labour leader show- ing magnanimity to a reviled National- ist figure (a flipside to the 2009 decision by Nationalist MP Lawrence Gonzi to appoint Abela's father George as Presi- dent of the Republic), Abela would have to consider whether a Maltese presi- dent of the European Commission of- fers him any political gains; whether his S&D colleagues are backing the move or turning their backs on compromise with a hard-right backed candidate; and whether a recomposed Council of Min- isters with stronger right-wing backing in 2024 would be too influential to op- pose. Abela's first concern is not Metsola: in 2024 it will be staying on the crest of the wave with a strong showing for La- bour in terms of votes. Would he even want to have a Nationalist prime-minis- ter-in-waiting with 10 times his power on EU policy? Or would Metsola be par- tial to Maltese interests on such matters as the EU's migration policy? In the two months that follow the Eu- ropean elections in May, Abela will have a choice to make, and that choice might turn out to be determined by the forces of European politics and the power in- terests of other political parties. If a reinvigorated right-wing clinches victory at the European elections, it gets first dibs on the European Commission boss; if that lead candidate is Metsola, Abela has to consider how to extract maximum leverage on such a political 'concession'. mvella@mediatoday.com.mt could be right-wing's compromise Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni (left) is welcomed to the European Parliament by Metsola. Also seen in the background (wearing a blue tie) is key FdL broker Raffaele Fitto, Italy\s minister for European affairs Finnish PM Sanna Marin (left) could be the S&D's choice for spitzenkandidat. But would Maltese prime minister Robert Abela (right) prefer his own Labour pick for commissioner in 2024, or could he gain some advantage by conceding to appoint Metsola at the head of the European executive if it could give him leverage on EU policy? But Metsola must be nominated to the Commission by Labour prime minister Robert Abela But Metsola must be nominated to the Commission by Labour prime minister Robert Abela It is a pathway fraught with numerous challenges and question-marks, for the EPP's power brokers 4 5