Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1491941
NEWS ANALYSIS 7 maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 8 FEBRUARY 2023 among a larger segment of the electorate. A majority of voters may be nominally against abortion but polls on such matters do not measure the intensity of feel- ings of those involved. Simi- lar surveys in the past had also showed a majority against child adoptions by same sex couples, but this reform hardly impacted voting patterns. While abortion is a more emo- tive issue, it may well be the case that even voters, who in a generic way oppose abortion, are not as obsessed with the issue as the keyboard warriors who consider a timid reform of abortion laws as the end of the world. For many, abortion may be more of a personal opinion which may even change in reac- tion to real life situations, than an overriding issue which deter- mines which party to voter for. 3. Crying wolf A majority of voters may not support the introduction of abortion but the antics of the pro-life movement are a turn off. People generally hate it when an issue is stuffed down their throat by a vocal lobby, which pretends to have a monopoly on the truth. Moreover, some voters are bound to be taken aback by the doom and gloom of preachers who make a rel- atively minor reform, which leaves the ban on abortion in most cases intact, sound like the apocalypse or the re-edition of the holocaust. Abortion entices the worms to come out of the conservative woodwork in the shape of rad- ical evangelists and the loony rightwing. Bernard Grech him- self went overboard by attack- ing the credibility of Andrea Prudente, a private woman still in mourning for the loss she experienced, in a speech in par- liament which sounded insensi- tive. Furthermore, while the cam- paign against the amendment is supported by professional elites including some in the medi- cal profession, their patroniz- ing and absolutist tone may be off-putting to those who do not see this issue in black and white terms. After all, these same elites had also opposed IVF leg- islation and the morning after pill which were also depicted as harbingers of the coming apoc- alypse. It may well be the case that by crying wolf so often, the pro- life lobby has damaged its own cause, losing their credibility even before the country starts discussing abortion on demand. 4. Labour's carefully balanced act Labour has managed to convince its own conservatives that abortion on demand is not presently on the table while still giving hope to its own liberal wing that wants it to go all the way. On this issue Labour may be economical with the truth by giving the impression that the current amendment is a sheer formality to legitimise a prac- tice which is already happening. The amendment could lead to conflicting interpretations on what constitutes "grave jeop- ardy to health." Yet this pales into insignificance when com- pared to the blatant falsehoods peddled by the PN and its allies in depicting the current reform as the introduction of abortion by stealth. In reality, abortion will remain illegal even in cases of incest and rape and Malta will remain the only EU member state to ban abortion in these cases. Moreover, Labour has also hinted that the final Bill will be further watered down by requiring the consent of more than one doctor before a termi- nation is allowed. Thanks to the PN's intransi- gence, Labour's timid tinkering with draconian abortion laws still offers some hope to liberals. For in the current impasse, liberal voters, including those who are very critical of Labour's track record on governance, may well put a peg on their nose to keep the ultra conservatives at bay. The PN may not have realised that by pushing the abortion button hard, it is turning itself toxic to a strategic category of voters whose political allegiance cannot be taken for granted. In contrast, Labour's own social conservatives tend to be a loyal bunch who won't change alle- giance on the basis of a single issue on which their party is still treading cautiously. 5. A home for liberals Labour losses among pro-life voters are offset by PN losses among liberals. While for most voters abortion does not de- termine their voting choices, among those for whom this is- sue is a priority the game is no longer as one sided as it used to be. It may very well be the case that Labour risks losing a small segment of its own voters who consider the current amend- ment a step too far, but such losses may be offset by PN loss- es among continentally-minded voters for whom abortion rights are part of the whole EU pack- age. In this sense the PN's abysmal results among under 50-year- old voters speak volumes. Currently, only 13% of 36- to 50-year-olds and 18% of 16- to 35-year-olds will be voting PN. Among both categories 38% will not vote while 26% will vote La- bour. Even among the tertiary edu- cated which also includes older and more conservative profes- sional elites, 37% will not vote in contrast to 30% who will vote PN. rock Abela's boat Opposition leader Bernard Grech addressing a public meeting organised by the PN in January, titled 'Yes, in favour of life' The abortion issue provided the PN with an opportunity to unite and be in synch with a wider movement that included the church, traditional professional elites and crucially, segments of old Labour represented by President George Vella and president emeritus Marie Louise Coleiro Preca