Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1493176
15 WORLD NEWS maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 15 FEBRUARY 2023 "RANGE anxiety" is a phrase most often associated with electric vehicles having to regularly charge their batteries. But it is also central to an understanding of the protracted nature of the limit- ed war being fought between Russia and Ukraine. Range in this case means something different, of course. It is the limited distance at which Ukraine can strike Russian military targets that is ef- fectively imposed on Kyiv by the weap- onry supplied by Ukraine's western al- lies. The willingness of Kyiv's allies to sup- ply ever more sophisticated military aid has evolved over the year. Initial- ly, western aid to Ukraine was limit- ed to Manpad air defence systems and handheld anti-tank weapons. But this has gradually been extended to include sophisticated air defence systems, ar- moured fighting vehicles and the prom- ise of main battle tanks such as US Abrams, German Leopard 2 and British Challengers. The gradual increase in the scope and lethality of armaments supplied by the west to Ukraine has always been preced- ed by much agonising over the desire to aid Ukraine while avoiding the escala- tion of the conflict – either geographi- cally to involve Nato itself or Moscow's use of nuclear weapons. For this reason, supplies of military aid have been incremental and hesitant – at least from Kyiv's perspective. It has also come with the condition attached that western weapons cannot be used by Ukraine against Russian territory. There is an understandable fear, giv- en Moscow's repeated threats, that the Russians would view this as western en- try into the war. Western fears US sensitivity on this subject was ev- ident when US secretary of state, An- tony Blinken, responded to the Ukrain- ian drone attack air bases hundreds of kilometres into Russian territory by stating: "We have neither encouraged nor enabled the Ukrainians to strike in- side of Russia." This concern explains the continued US reluctance to supply the longest-range rockets that are com- patible with its High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (Himars) such as the much-requested ATACMS (Army Tac- tical Missile System). Range anxiety also partly explains US reluctance to supply Ukraine with advanced fighter jets such as the F16. Due to the effectiveness of Ukraine's ground-based air defence network – a combination of Soviet-era surface-to- air systems (Sams) and western equip- ment, Russian aircraft have mostly been forced to launch their attacks on Ukraine from inside their own airspace While this has largely limited their op- erations to eastern Ukraine, they have augmented their arsenal with longer- range Iranian "kamikaze" drones in order to target Kyiv, which they did in October, damaging power infrastruc- ture and killing several civilians. Sending F16s to Ukraine under the same constraints as previous equipment would do little to address the Russian air threat. Air-to-air missiles operate over long distances and beyond visual sight. The Russian Mig 31 and Su 57 operating the R37M long range hyper- sonic missile have engaged Ukrainian aircraft at a range of over 200kms from the safety of Russian airspace. Supplying Ukraine with F16s or oth- er western aircraft without giving Kyiv the authority to engage enemy aircraft over Russia would only demonstrate the one-sided nature of the current limita- tions under which this conflict is being fought – constraints that manifestly benefit the Russian aggressors. Uneven playing field At present, Russia can commit acts of barbarism from its own territory while its aircraft and their operating bases are effectively immune from retaliation or interdiction. Under these constraints, while Ukraine suffers and burns, Rus- sian territory is a sanctuary. Given that the effects of the war are being experi- enced in a one-sided manner it is little wonder that Russia still believes it will prevail. Most importantly, these constraints make it difficult to envisage how Ukraine could forcibly push Russian occupiers out of its territory if it is not allowed to use western-supplied equip- ment. These limitations partly explain why the battle lines of this conflict resemble first world war trenches and why the war has become static and protracted. Most of the fighting this far has been limited to within artillery range. Fight- ing at short range also gives advantage to the side that can generate the most men and equipment for an offensive, something Russia has spent the winter months preparing. Ukraine's pleas for main battle tanks and armoured fighting vehicles rec- ognised the need for the capacity to manoeuvre and to fight the war on its terms. Its ability to fight the war at greater distance using greater quanti- ties of longer-range artillery would also allow it to blunt the Russian offensive at depth attacking supply bases and com- mand centres. It would also allow Ukraine to cut the land bridge between Crimea and the Rostov region of Russia without the need to regain all its territory up to the sea. Cutting off Crimea in this way would be a powerful counter-punch to the Russian efforts to invade the rest of the Donbas. Isolating Crimea would starve the Russian forces there of resupply and act as a prelude for an assault. Washington's decision to supply Ukraine with ground-launched, small diameter bombs as part of a new US$2.17 billion (£1.8 billion) aid pack- age announced by the Biden admin- istration this month indicates an ap- preciation of the case for longer-range military systems. These munitions have a range of 95 miles, twice that of the systems current- ly provided. But are unlikely to be available in time for the potentially decisive battles of spring 2023. For the Russian offen- sive to be blunted – and for Putin to be convinced that he cannot achieve his strategic objectives – either longer- range munitions need to be supplied to Ukraine in sufficient numbers, or the constraints under which the west is re- quiring Ukraine to fight this war need to be reconsidered. Why Ukraine's western allies must rethink the limits of their military aid David Hastings Dunn David Hastings Dunn is Professor of International Politics in the Department of Political Science and International Studies, University of Birmingham Kyiv's western allies are reluctant to supply Ukraine with advanced F16 aircraft for fear it will be seen by Moscow as escalation