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THE Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report warns that global average temperatures are estimated to rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above the world's pre-industrial levels, around "the first half of the 2030s" if humans con- tinue to burn coal, oil and natural gas. Beyond that point, scientists say, the impacts of catastrophic heat waves, flood- ing, drought, crop failures and species extinction become significantly harder for humanity to handle. The new IPCC report says that only if industrialized na- tions join together immediately to slash greenhouse gases roughly in half by 2030, and then stop adding carbon diox- ide to the atmosphere altogether by the early 2050, will the world have a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. In the wake of this grim scenario UN secretary-gener- al, António Guterres has called on developed countries to bring forward their commitments on reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions, from 2050 to "as close as pos- sible to 2040", said Guterres. Guterres also called for de- veloped countries to phase out coal by 2030, and all others by 2040. He called for no new licensing or funding of oil and gas projects, based on the findings of the International Energy Agency that all new oil and gas development must cease for the world to limit global heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. One of the greatest risks is that governments in rich countries grappling with inflation and the cost of the war in Ukraine, will get resigned to an inevitable catastrophe. But this would be a veritable crime against humanity condemn- ing millions particularly in the poorest countries to death, instability and forced immigration. And while the cost to avoid catastrophe is huge, the cost of failure is much bigger. The scale of the challenge facing the world is considerable. Chris Jones, of the Met Office Hadley Centre, a member of the report's core writing team, pointed out that emissions fell by 6% in 2020 owing to the Covid-19 lockdowns, and a similar fall would be needed each year for the next decade. Obviously the world cannot afford to go on lockdown for the next decade and public investments in renewables and energy efficiency are the only way forward. And while gov- ernments in richer countries, have to be honest with elec- torates that life cannot go on as before, changes have to be socially fair to avoid a backlash and a resurgence of climate scepticism deployed by short sighted populists who risk de- railing effective commitments to address the greatest global challenge ever. Recent election results in the Netherlands which saw massive gains by a farmers' party in the senate opposed to government plans to slash nitrogen emissions by dramatically reducing livestock numbers is a sign of the difficulties ahead. For sure climate change represents a big test for demo- cratic decision making. For in the face of a countdown to extinction, democrats need to show both resolve and em- pathy. But none are possible without the monies required. But there is no way to go about it. National governments are too small to address this problem alone and we cannot rely on private funds to finance such an epochal change. In short the only way out of this quandary is a multilateral ap- proach and a commitment to finance the required changes. The IPCC estimates that investment in climate mitigation and adaptation is three to six times lower than where it needs to be to reach the goal of limiting temperature rises to 1.5C. Private companies won't risk spending as the pay- back may take years, or never arise. That is why there is no alternative to increased state spending in both research and assisting the most vulnerable categories in society to make . As things stand although the EU's commitment to cut net emissions by at least 55% by 2030 and reach climate neu- trality by 2050 put it the forefront of the battle against cli- mate change, the latest IPCC report suggests that this is not enough to fend off the bleak scenario in front of us. But this is even more challenging in view of the disruption in ener- gy provision triggered by the war in Ukraine which forced leading members like Germany to delay plans to shut down coal fired power stations. In the face of the risks we face, Europeans must show a mix of principled commitment to green solutions and a rational pragmatism informed by science. In a sign of the times the Finnish Green Party (and leading internation- al green voices like George Monbiot) have dropped their complete opposition to nuclear power, envisaging a role for nuclear energy , especially in the shape of smaller modular reactors, in the transition to a non fossil fuel economy. At the same time we need to be wary of quick fixes like carbon capture and grey/blue hydrogen which risk prolonging our dependency on fossil fuel infrastructure. Even more ques- tionable but hard to avoid in the absence of any significant progress in the next decade, would be resorting to climate engineering which may well have unforeseen consequenc- es. Moreover radical life style changes may also be part of the solution. For example a transition to lab grown meat could be the key to reducing methane emissions. Yet en- suring that these changes are affordable and do not end up impoverishing rural areas, is one of the greatest challenges of our times. Malta in line with the EU will also have to accelerate its plans for carbon neutrality and to move away from our near total dependency on fossil fuels which accounts for both most of the energy produced in our power stations and also for most of the energy imported through the interconnec- tor. In this sense Malta has been overtaken by the fast pace of history. Just a decade ago we were still burning heavy fuel oil which contributes to higher emissions than our current reliance on LNG. But ten years later we have no choice but to consider LNG as a transitional fuel towards to a more energy efficient economy fuelled by a mix of re- newable sources of locally produced and imported solar and wind energy and green hydrogen. Much more can be done in ensuring that all new buildings are energy efficient and eventually carbon neutral. In this context those who argue that our contribution to global emissions as a country is relatively small should be reminded that our emissions are at par with those emitted by any other medium sized city in mainland Europe. The cost of failure 11 LETTERS & EDITORIAL maltatoday MaltaToday, MediaToday Co. Ltd, Vjal ir-Rihan, San Gwann SGN 9016 MANAGING EDITOR: SAVIOUR BALZAN EXECUTIVE EDITOR: MATTHEW VELLA EDITOR: PAUL COCKS Tel: (356) 21 382741-3, 21 382745-6 Website: www.maltatoday.com.mt E-mail: dailynews@mediatoday.com.mt maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 22 MARCH 2023