Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1499757
13 NEWS maltatoday | SUNDAY • 21 MAY 2023 JAMES DEBONO THE Labour Party has widened its lead over the Nationalist Party to 4.4 points from 2.2 points in March, the latest MaltaToday survey shows. The PL scores 33.1%, while the Nationalist Par- ty scores 28.7%. Collectively, ADPD and other small parties obtain 1.1%, while non-voters rep- resent 20.8% of the electorate. Another 14.7% are undecided. The survey which was carried out in the past two weeks partly coincided with the political tur- moil caused by fresh revelations in the hospitals concession scandal over the past five days. However, it also captures the public mood in the wake of the distribution of tax refund cheques. While Labour has increased its vote share by 2.3 points over March figures, when it scored its lowest result ever, it remains a long way from the level of support it enjoyed in February when it had a staggering 16-point lead over the PN. The survey also indicates that the PN has re- mained stable, gaining just 0.3 points over March, thus retaining the gains made in the pre- vious survey. Without attributing voting intentions to those who are unsure or who say they will not vote; the present gap translates into a 15,624-vote dif- ference down from a 56,461-vote difference in February but up from an 8,522-vote difference in March. This suggests that the difference between the two parties is now substantially lower than that in the general election when Labour won by 39,000 votes. The survey suggests that Labour keeps on losing more votes to abstention than to the Nationalist Party. The result also suggests that over the past two months both parties have consolidated their po- sition with their voting base, with both retaining more of their 2022 general election voters. Labour wins back its undecided voters but not non-voters The survey indicates a small shift from Labour to the PN but it is losses to abstention which ac- count for most of the party's losses from the 2022 general election figures. The survey shows that while 3% of Labour vot- ers in 2022 now intend voting for the PN, these are partly offset by 2.2% of PN voters who will now be voting PL. But while only 5.3% of PN voters in 2022 intend on not voting, a substantial 16% of PL voters will abstain in a forthcoming election, up from 15% in the last survey. In fact, Labour's gains in the survey are mostly accounted for by a drop in 2022 Labour voters who are undecided - from 13% in March to 9% now. Overall, Labour retains 70% of its 2022 voting share, up from 66% in March while the PN re- tains 77% of its 2022 voters, just one point up from March. This suggests that increased polarisation in the past weeks which saw both major parties organ- ising mass rallies on 1 May could have solidified Labour's base. It also suggests that the PL has lured back apa- thetic voters who were undecided but has so far failed to lure back disgruntled or angry voters in- tent on not voting. In contrast the PN is losing less support to ab- stention with the number of 2022 PN voters in- tent on not voting dropping from 11% in March to just 5% now. But the PN still failed to make any gains be- cause the number of undecided supporters with- in its pool of 2022 voters has doubled from 7% in March to 15% now. This explains why despite a small shift from La- bour to the PN and a decrease of PN voters who intend not to vote, the PN has only increased its support by 0.3pp. PN wins among over 65-year olds The survey shows the PL leading in all age groups except among those aged over 65 where the PN leads by six points. Among 16- to 35-year-olds the Labour Party is significantly weaker than Robert Abela. While in this age group Abela leads Grech by nearly eight points, Labour leads the PN by just 1.5 points. This suggests that Labour may have more room to grow in this category in which a substantial 31% do not intend to vote. Significantly in this age group the percentage of non-voters (30.7%) is greater than the percent- age garnered by both the PL (20.5%) and the PN (19%). In contrast among over 65 year olds only 6% are intent on not voting. PL retakes Gozo On a regional level Labour leads in all regions except the North Harbour where the PN enjoys a nine-point lead. In Gozo where the PN had overtaken the PL in the March survey, the PL now leads by four points. In the Northern region where Abela leads Grech by 25 points the PL leads the PN by less than two points. In this region the PN is seven points more popular than the Grech while the PL is 17 points less popular than its leader. Compared to March the PL has lost support in the Southern Harbour and South-Eastern regions but has increased its vote share in the Western region. Third parties fail to leave a mark on the survey and have seen their support drop from 4.7% in the March survey to just 1.1% now. Support for AD only surpasses the 2% mark among 16- to 35-year-olds and is confined to the North Har- bour and Western regions. Support for other political parties peaks at 5% in the Southern Har- bour region. Both major parties lose 1% of their support in 2022 to third parties. Labour gains two points as it retains more of its 2022 voters Methodology The survey was carried out between Wednesday 10 May 2023 and Friday 19 May 2023. 634 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, age and gender was used to replicate the Maltese demographic. The estimated margin of error is 4.2% for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall results. Demographic and sub-group breakdowns have significantly larger margins of error.