Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1501168
12 NEWS ANALYSIS maltatoday | SUNDAY • 11 JUNE 2023 THERE is unity in strength. This was a hallmark of Labour's successful political brand in a dec- ade which saw the party vanquish a divided, dazed and confused Opposition. It did so by following to the letter a textbook written by former leader Joseph Muscat, and slightly corrected by Robert Abe- la, turning Labour from perenni- al underdog to a natural party of government. Instead of lashing out against barons and 'friends of friends' networks, Labour found itself re- shaping the country's power net- work, pulling the rug from under the PN's feet by becoming a busi- ness-friendly party while also be- ing more in synch with younger voters' more secular and liberal outlook. But with inflation taking a bigger bite from middle-income house- holds in 2023, the last decade's 'feel good' factor which obscured Labour's inner contradictions, is fast evaporating, bringing new and old divisions to the fore. And after years of mocking the PN over its disunity and cultivat- ing a brand built around a slick, decisive and strong leadership, Labour seems ill-equipped for a much-needed internal debate that is meant to resolve internal ten- sions. While it is now clear that the party harbours within it con- flicting views on themes like plan- ning, the economic model and the Muscat legacy, there is little de- bate on the way forward, as party activists and stalwarts still expect a clear direction from above. And while Labour still leads in the polls by a substantial, albeit re- duced margin, there is a growing feeling that Labour is entering a twilight zone, where some of the love invested in the party back in the best of times, is gone. 1. Foreign workers: Abela faces a dilemma on how to correct an economic model partly based on population growth, which keeps giving in terms of revenue, but whose sustainability is questioned by his own finance minister Surveys on public concerns in- dicate that discontentment on 'foreign workers' is greater among older Labour voters than among other categories of voters. This suggests a growing dissonance between Labour's traditionally hawkish stance on migration, and its newly found cosmopolitan vo- cation. This contradiction explains why both Muscat and Abela managed to balance the increased reliance on foreign labour with a bullish stance on boat arrivals, which re- main at historically low figures. But while xenophobia remains rampant, as long as the econom- ic model delivered prosperity, people were more ready to tol- erate legal migration's undesired side-effects. But the balancing act is becoming harder at a time when people are suffering the inflation pinch. Ironically it is this econom- ic model which presently gen- erates the tax revenue that pays the fuel subsidies shielding the population and averting an even greater crisis which may wipe out Labour's majority. This exposes the dilemma faced by Robert Abela and his finance minister Clyde Caruana. The lat- ter has been frank in admitting the need to change track, warn- ing that to sustain current rates of economic growth, Malta's pop- ulation would have to increase to 800,000 by 2040. Caruana, himself one of the ar- chitects of labour market policies which spurred this kind of growth, now speaks of the need to "tran- sition" towards a new economic model. But does Labour have an alter- native economic model in mind? Once again Labour needs to go back to the drawing board to think out of the box, though it re- mains unclear whether it can re- verse course at the very moment it needs to cash in this growth, to continue subsidising energy bills and keep discontent on food prices from snowballing into an unstoppable wave before the Eu- ropean elections. 2. Concrete: Abela is risking a popular revolt led by Labour's own mayors as construction works keep cropping in every nook and cranny. But he is also under pressure not to undermine business confidence in the face of a more determined Opposition Discontent on environmental is- sues is the most visible on the so- cial media and the reverberations on Labour are increasingly felt in the public statements made by three popular Labour mayors who participated in the 'Xebbajtuna' protest. Communities in Labour heartlands like Zurrieq, Pem- broke and Santa Luċija have also become more restless when faced by development on land added to the boundaries in 2006, the assault on townscapes thanks to the rein- terpretation of building heights under Labour, and mega-projects undertaken in the past years. The problem for Labour is that over the past decade it has become too associated with the develop- ers' lobby, with communities ask- ing the leadership to stop hiding behind the policy smokescreen and declare on whose side they are on. It was this kind of frus- tration at seeing the authorities facilitating the takeover of part of the Gzira garden to accommodate the relocation of a petrol station, which drove its Labour mayor to the brink. And while in the Nigret case, Labour was offered respite by the overbearing presence of disliked former environment minister George Pullicino in his role as ar- chitect of a project made possible by the extension of boundaries carried out on his watch, one can- not ignore that Labour's own dep- uty leader Daniel Jose Micallef had served as an architect of a similar project on an adjacent agricultural site. In this context, hobnobbing with these lobbies has become increas- ingly toxic for Labour's exponents. But while vocal opposition turns social movements like Graffitti in- to a reference point for those on the left of labour, Abela also must contend with increased restless- ness among more silent catego- ries of property owners, who fear Foreign workers, concrete and Muscat: Three major issues have exposed cracks in Labour's formidable but increasingly fragile coalition. JAMES DEBONO explores the ramifications