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22.6.2023 6 MARKETS Symbol Volume Value Trades High Low Open Closing Change Code Traded Traded Trades Price Price Price Price EQUITIES APS 7,526 4,515.60 1 0.600 0.600 0.600 0.600 0.000 BMIT 135,625 58,318.75 5 0.430 0.430 0.430 0.430 0.000 BOV 73,352 81,346.38 7 1.130 1.090 1.110 1.130 0.040 GO 9,400 27,778.00 4 2.960 2.940 2.960 2.940 0.000 HLI 1,800 410.40 1 0.228 0.228 0.228 0.228 0.000 HSB 109,863 119,750.67 4 1.090 1.090 1.090 1.090 0.000 MIA 19,973 108,882.85 4 5.500 5.450 5.500 5.450 0.000 PG 83,900 161,386.52 7 1.940 1.920 1.920 1.940 0.020 CORPORATE STOCKS G32G 10,000 10,365.00 1 103.650 103.650 103.650 103.650 -0.580 G34A 58,400 60,718.48 1 103.970 103.970 103.970 103.970 -1.030 G40A 216,000 192,302.18 7 99.000 88.280 98.000 88.280 -2.220 G43AA 25,000 24,835.00 1 99.340 99.340 99.340 99.340 -0.910 CORPORATE BONDS AX24A 25,000 25,250.00 1 101.000 101.000 101.000 101.000 0.990 AX29A 4,300 4,203.25 1 97.750 97.750 97.750 97.750 -0.200 BB33A 8,500 8,712.50 1 102.500 102.500 102.500 102.500 0.500 BV30B 27,200 24,147.46 8 89.200 88.500 88.510 89.200 1.190 CE33A 10,100 10,100.00 1 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 0.000 DF26A 20,000 20,000.00 1 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 0.010 HF28A 5,000 4,675.50 1 93.510 93.510 93.510 93.510 0.010 IB32A 10,000 10,000.00 1 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 0.000 IH26A 13,500 13,600.65 3 100.750 100.740 100.740 100.750 0.000 IH31A 4,000 3,720.00 1 93.000 93.000 93.000 93.000 0.000 JD32A 9,100 9,044.35 2 99.850 99.010 99.850 99.010 -0.840 MI23A 9,000 8,998.35 2 100.000 99.970 99.970 100.000 0.800 MP32A 5,000 4,970.00 1 99.400 99.400 99.400 99.400 -0.100 ON34A 16,000 15,360.00 2 96.000 96.000 96.000 96.000 -2.000 SF27A 10,000 10,000.00 1 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 0.700 SP29A 3,000 2,970.00 1 99.000 99.000 99.000 99.000 0.000 ST27A 33,000 33,000.00 4 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 0.000 VR27A 300 289.50 1 96.500 96.500 96.500 96.500 -2.400 Malta Stock Exchange Regulated Main Market Trading Date: 21 June 2023 UK inflation shock piles pressure on the Bank of England IT'S another month where UK inflation has come in dramatical- ly higher than expected, and that all but guarantees another rate hike from the Bank of England tomorrow. Headline inflation remained unchanged at 8.7% in May, and because the contribu- tion from energy and food re- duced, that means core inflation actually rose to 7.1% from 6.8% previously. Unfortunately, things look just as concerning when you look into the figures in more detail. e Bank of England is most focused on services inflation because it tends to exhibit more persistent and less volatile trends. And here we saw a further increase in the annual rate of inflation, and that means the contribution from ser- vices to overall headline CPI is about 0.3pp higher than the BoE had previously been forecasting. Crucially, this upside surprise doesn't appear to be concentrat- ed in any single category. Headline inflation should come down more noticeably over the next couple of months, owing to some pretty hefty base effects. Last June saw a near 10% spike in petrol prices, whereas prices are currently falling, and of course in July we'll see a material fall in household electricity/gas bills. Core inflation we think should come lower too, though to a much lesser degree and main- ly because of further renewed downward pressure from certain goods categories. Headline CPI, we think, will be just below 7% by July and around 4.5% by year-end. Core inflation will probably end the year above 5%. All of this makes life even hard- er for the Bank of England. e bar for another 50bp hike is set pretty high, but a 25bp hike is basically guaranteed, as is an- other in August. But markets are now fully pricing a 6% peak for the Bank rate, which implies six more rate hikes from current levels. at seems excessive, and we suspect the Bank of England would privately agree. When rates got this high last November, the BoE offered some rare pushback against market ex- pectations and signalled a lower peak for rates. But this time, with inflation consistently coming in hotter than expected, officials will be more reluctant to offer any firm guidance on what comes next. Policymakers won't want to steer market rate expectations lower, only to find that further inflation surprises force it to go further than it would like over the coming months. Ultimately though, 6% rates would be extremely restrictive. e current structure of the mortgage market – whereby the vast majority of households are fixed for either two or five years – means rate hikes filter through to the economy fairly gradually. at means that the length of time rates stay restrictive is argu- ably more important these days than the absolute level interest rates reach over the shorter term. As the BoE itself has made clear, the impact of all those past hikes is still largely to hit the economy – and just taking rates to 5% and keeping them there would exert a large drag on the economy. The Bank of England is most focused on services inflation because it tends to exhibit more persistent and less volatile trends

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