Issue link: https://maltatoday.uberflip.com/i/1504229
15 maltatoday | SUNDAY • 23 JULY 2023 SURVEY JAMES DEBONO THE Nationalist Party is for the first time in 15 years ahead of the Labour Party in the polls, even if by less than a percentage point. The MaltaToday July survey shows support for the PN standing at 30.2% against the PL's 29.6%. ADPD's support stands at 1.2%, while other parties collectively score at 1.2%. Non-voters form the third largest 'party' with 22.6% of the electorate saying they will not vote of an election is held tomorrow. Amidst the political turmoil of the past two weeks prompted by calls for a public inquiry into the Jean Paul Sofia case, the PL has seen its 4.4-point lead in May's survey evaporate. The PN now leads by a sheer 0.6 points. This turn in fortunes comes in the wake of a 1.5-point increase for the PN and a 3.5-point drop for the PL. The PN has never led Labour in any survey held by MaltaToday since the 2008 general election, which it won by a whisker. However, the result has to be interpreted with caution since the difference between the parties is well within the survey's margin of error. Despite a small shift to the PN, the PL's loss- es are mainly attributable to a lower retention of its 2022 voters from 70.1% in May to just 64.3% now. Crucially, the percentage of Labour voters in 2022 now intent on not voting has increased to 17.4%, an increase of one point from May. Significantly in a clear indication of confu- sion in Labour's electorate the percentage of undecided voters among its 2022 voters has shot up from 9.1% in May to 14.7% now. The survey result represents a dramat- ic collapse in support for the Labour Party which back in February enjoyed a staggering 16-point lead over the PN. Since February the Labour Party has lost 15.4 points and its cur- rent result is the worst ever. Without attributing voting intentions to those who are unsure or who say they will not vote, the present gap translates into a 2,131-vote difference in favour of the PN. In May, the vote gap stood at 15,624 in favour of the PL. Over the past two months Labour has lost support in the absence of any remarkable in- roads by the PN which has only gained 1.5 points since May. Labour's drop also comes in the wake of an increase in non-voters and un- decided voters, suggesting that PL voters are shifting away from the party but many are not yet convinced they should switch votes. Small shift for PN Despite the very modest gains made by the PN, the survey indicates a small shift from the PL to the PN; while 2.8% of Labour voters in 2022 are now intent on voting for the PN, only 0.8% of PN voters will now vote Labour. But this pales in comparison with Labour's haemorrhage to abstention. While the PN now loses 8.5% of its 2022 voters to abstention up from 5.3% in May, ab- stention among 2022 PL voters has increased from 16.3% to 17.4%. Moreover, while 10.2% of PN voters in 2022 are undecided, 14.7% of Labour voters are now undecided, up from 9.1% in May. PN makes gains among 36- to 50-year-olds The survey shows the PN leading amongst those over 65 years of age, where it enjoys a 4.4-point lead and also among 36- to 50-year- olds where it enjoys a six-point advantage. Compared to May the PN has seen its sup- port among 36- to 50-year-olds increase by 6.5 points while Labour has lost 11.8 points in this age group. But Labour still leads by 2.1 points among 16- to 34-year-olds and by 7.4 points among 51- to 65-year-olds. Notably, abstention emerges as the most popular choice of 16- to 34-year-olds followed by indecision. In this age group 34.7% are in- tent on not voting and 21.2% are undecided. Only 17% intend voting PN while 19.1% will vote PL. Compared to May the percentage of non-voters in this age group has increased by four points. But although the abstention rate drops to 9.6% among over 65-year-olds, the number of non-voters among this category is 3.6 points higher than in May. PN retakes Gozo and makes inroads in Southern Harbour On a regional level the PN is now leading the PL in three regions. Gozo is now blue with the PN enjoying a four-point lead. In the North- ern region the PN leads by 13.8 points, while in the Northern Harbour region it leads by 9.6 points. In the May survey Labour had enjoyed a lead in all regions except the Northern Harbour. In Gozo, the only region which matches an electoral district, Labour has seen a four-point lead in May evaporate as the PN increased its support by 5.1 point. Labour still enjoys a remarkable 19.5-point lead in the South-Eastern region and a 7.9-point lead in the Western region. But significantly its lead in the Southern Harbour region which includes Cottonera, has slipped from 12.6 points in May to just 1.9 points now. Labour's decline in this region comes amidst an 8.9-point increase for the PN in Labour's heartland. The survey shows the PN gaining most ground among the tertiary educated, among which its support has increased by 9.3 points since May. In contrast, it has only gained 1.4 points among the secondary educated. But Labour loses 8.3 points among the sec- ondary educated mainly thanks to a 5.5-point increase in the undecided. PN ahead as Labour vote collapses Methodology The survey was carried out between Monday 10 July 2023 and Thursday 20 July 2023. 749 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, age and gender was used to replicate the Maltese demographic voting in the general election. The estimated margin of error is 3.6% for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall results. Demographic and sub-group breakdowns have significantly larger margins of error.