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14 WORLD maltatoday | WEDNESDAY • 2 AUGUST 2023 Olayinka Ajala is Senior lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Leeds Beckett University AT an emergency meeting in Abuja, Nigeria, on 30 July, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) de- manded the "immediate release and reinstatement" of Niger's elected president, Mohamed Ba- zoum. He had been held by the military since 19 July. The regional bloc gave the mil- itary in Niger a one-week ulti- matum to comply and warned it would take all measures necessary – including force – to restore con- stitutional order. On 28 July, the head of Niger's presidential guard, General Ab- dourahamane Tchiani, declared himself head of state after the mil- itary seized power. Beyond warning against any re- gional and foreign interventions, the military leaders in Niger have given no indications of ways for- ward. This coup d'etat will have a sig- nificant impact on peace and sta- bility in Niger and the entire Sahel region. Although Niger has recently en- joyed its longest democratic rule since independence, there has been a constant threat of coups. When Bazoum was elected pres- ident in 2021, there was a coup attempt about 48 hours before his inauguration. It failed as presi- dential guards fought off the coup plotters. As a political scientist with ex- pertise on international security, conflict analysis and governance in Africa, including knowledge on Niger, I explained then, the coup attempt pointed to deep fissures in the country. It suggested that the military had not fully em- braced democracy. The current coup plotters have blamed rising insecurity and a lack of economic growth. They stated that the intervention was neces- sary to avoid "the gradual and in- evitable demise" of the country. I believe, however, there are other issues that precipitated the latest coup d'etat. These are: ethnicity; the presence of foreign forces; and the weakness of regional bodies. Factors that led to the coup There are no doubts that the rise in insecurity and declining economic prospects contribut- ed to fragility in the country. Despite the increase in for- eign forces, especially from the US and France, and military bases in Niger, the leadership has been unable to stop insur- gent attacks. There are sever- al insurgent groups, such as Al-Qaeda and Islamic State af- filiates, as well as Boko Haram operating in the country. These attacks have result- ed in thousands of deaths and displacements in the last dec- ade. Hundreds of youths in the capital, Niamey, gathered to celebrate the July coup, wav- ing Russian flags and chanting "Wagner". This suggests that some people in Niger believe the military, supported by Rus- sia and the private military contractor, Wagner group, would do a better job of fight- ing insurgents. In addition to insecurity and economic stagnation, three other issues help explain the recent coup d'etat. First, the debate over the ethnicity and legitimacy of Bazoum was an issue during the last election campaign. Ba- zoum is from Niger's ethnic Arab minority and has always been labelled as having foreign origins. This did not sit well with- in the military circle, which is predominantly composed of the larger ethnic groups – even though Bazoum got about 56% of the vote and is from the same party as former president Mahamadou Issoufou. There is a lot of emphasis on ethnic military composition in the country; understanding this helped Issoufou complete two terms as president. Ap- pointments in the military are made along ethnic lines. Second, the large number of foreign military troops and bases in the country has not been well received by the mil- itary. They believe this under- mines them. Niger is a key al- ly of western countries in the fight against insurgency in the region. France's huge invest- ments in Niger's mining sector are another reason for its inter- est in security. In 2019, the US opened a drone base in Niger despite protests. As I have pointed out before, the drone base could make Niger a target for terror- ists and increase instability. In 2022, France and other Eu- ropean allies withdrew their forces from neighbouring Ma- li. Bazoum was quick to invite them to Niger. The Nigerien military leadership and some influential individuals in the country denounced the in- crease in foreign forces. Third, I suggest the failure of regional organisations such as ECOWAS and the African Un- ion to take a firm stance against military power seizures in Guinea, Burkina Faso and Mali emboldened the Nigerien mil- itary. ECOWAS leaders have now threathened to use force to restore Bazoum if the coup plotters do not reinstate him. In the last four years, there have been seven coup d'etats in the region. Three were success- ful. Leaders of ECOWAS and the African Union have threat- ened sanctions on these three countries, but nothing much has been done to deter other opportunistic military leaders. In a round table organised by the think tank Chatham House London on the impact of military intervention in west Africa, one of the leaders from the region stated that they kept avenues of communication open with the three military presidents as a courtesy. This creates an im- pression that there is no deter- rence for military takeovers. Implications for Niger and the region The latest coup d'etat has se- vere consequences for Niger and the entire Sahel region. Ni- ger is a strong ally of western nations, especially France, the US and the European Union in fighting insurgency and curb- ing illegal migration to Europe. Efforts to address these is- sues will be affected. And the new military leaders will want to use these issues as leverage in negotiations and to force ac- ceptance of the new regime. The new leaders in Niger might also engage with the Wagner group to combat the Islamist insurgency. The leader of the group has already praised them for seizing power. The in- fluence of Russia and Wagner in the region could grow. Yet Wagner has been unable to halt terrorist advancement in Mali and Burkina Faso. Finally, a successful military takeover in Niger would be a major drawback for democra- cy in the region and Africa as a whole. The military regimes of Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso already plan to form a "military alliance", supposedly to combat insecurity. African leaders need to do more to prove that they are working for the masses. What caused the coup in Niger? An expert outlines three driving factors Olayinka Ajala Niger's Gen Abdourahamane Tchiani declares himself head of state on 28 July